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Fitch Downgrades Greece's Credit Rating To One Step Above Default

Greece Downgrade

07/13/11 04:58 PM ET   AP

ATHENS, Greece — Greece suffered another sovereign downgrade on Wednesday, when the Fitch agency slashed its credit worthiness by three notches further into junk status and only one grade above default.

The agency cut Greece's rating from B+ to CCC, bringing it broadly in line with the other two major agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, which had downgraded the country's bonds to a similar level last month.

Greece relies on loans from a euro110 billion ($155 billion) international bailout from other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund, and discussions are under way for a second bailout to keep the country's crisis from destabilizing other larger European economies.

However, no decisions have been made so far on how much more help Greece will get or in what way private holders of Greek bonds could contribute toward easing repayments.

Credit ratings agencies have warned they could consider a voluntary rollover of Greek debt as a form of default.

"Today's rating downgrade reflects the absence of a new, fully-funded and credible EU-IMF program for Greece, coupled with heightened uncertainty surrounding the role of private creditors in any future funding, as well as Greece's weakening macroeconomic outlook," Fitch said in a statement.

While the main aspects of further help were discussed at a meeting of EU finance ministers earlier in the week, "no further clarity on the volume and the terms of new money or the nature of private sector participation was forthcoming," Fitch said.

The Greek government expressed surprise at the downgrade, saying the EU finance ministers' meeting had decided to have the new program in effect by mid-September – when Greece is due to receive the next installment of its bailout payments – while the precise form of private participation is still being worked out.

"It is therefore bewildering why Fitch went ahead with today's rating action, despite the fact that the timetable of eurozone's and IMF's actions is known and adhered to," a Finance Ministry statement said.

"Today's rating action by Fitch does not affect the Greek banking system, and this will become clear as soon as the new program comes into effect," the statement added.

In an interview with Germany's Financial Times Deutschland, Prime Minister George Papandreou urged EU leaders to expedite their decisions on the new program.

He also said he is "open to" the idea of Greece buying back part of its debt with funds provided by its European partners, according to a translation provided late Wednesday by Papandreou's office.

Explaining the downgrade, Fitch also noted that Greece has been missing fiscal targets set out as conditions for receiving the first bailout, from which it began drawing funds in May last year.

"Fitch's 'CCC' rating encapsulates substantial credit risk and acknowledges that default is a real possibility," the agency said. "As previously stated by Fitch, private sector involvement would likely be viewed as a sign of sovereign credit impairment and could trigger a rating default event."

The move came as the IMF said Greece's government must move quickly and decisively to bring its huge public debt under control.

To the outrage of labor unions across the country, Greece's government has embarked on a punishing new round of austerity measures after missing its deficit-cutting targets so far in 2011. Spending cuts and tax hikes have already sparked frequent strikes and demonstrations, with protests often turning violent in central Athens.

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This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
04:01 AM on 07/14/2011
So what happens were Greece to default. I have read anything about the worst case scenario.
05:27 PM on 07/14/2011
The problem is that it's hard to compute. Some things can be said though:
A) Greek banks will immediately collapse, probably including the Greek Central Bank. That is because they hold a great deal of Greek bonds as "reserve"/collateral to risks. It would supposedly result in a rush on these banks with everyone trying to withdraw the money from those accounts, bringing them into more peril. The Greek government would have no money to support their banks (because: default). Those banks will get a "D" rating which means that they can't get money from the ECB, too.
B) Pensions, public servant salaries, imports, social security ... nothing could be paid for anymore by the Greek government.
C) Some of those speculators are actually trying to push for a default. That will trigger a credit event, which will lead to CDS payments to manifest which will give those speculators more money to speculate against a bigger fish.
D) It's only guessing but it's fair to assume that if it's a unilateral default then the other Europeans and the IMF will immediately stop further payments.
05:27 PM on 07/14/2011
E) Greek bonds are also held by governments and banks in other struggling Eurozone countries. Such an event could push them over the edge because they might need to support their banks (or let them collapse thus amplifying the domino effect).
D) The ECB will have to immediately write off a huge share of their "assets" (Greek bonds). This will require countries like France, Germany, the Netherlands to back them with substantial additional funding from our national budgets via our central banks. Also, some money needs to be pumped into the "bad banks". That would tie the fiscal hands even of the larger economies; probably increase even the interest rates for bonds from those countries.
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02:18 AM on 07/14/2011
First the banks failed because of excessive risky credit. Governments around the world said "OH NO! we can't have the banks collapse . that will means the end of financial system and no one will be able to live without borrowing money. So all governments went all in and pumped trillions of newly created money secured by newly created debt sold to suckers who thought " this is government debt . It can never fail." Now one by one governments around the world are no longer able to make payments on that debt sold to the very banks they bailed out. One solution : create some more money out of thin air and use it to pay the interest on the debt. One problem: the more money is created , the higher prices go and the more the rest of us who have no access to this new money , are squeezed by higher and higher prices. other solution : default. governments stop paying their bills including the interest on the debt. One problem: people no longer trust the governments to pay them back so they want higher interest rates on their loans to the governments. governments them spend more and more on interest and less on services . then governments need more money so they raise taxes which takes more money away from people who then spend less and buy less causing further economic contraction. this is a real "heads you lose, tails you lose " scenario.
02:10 AM on 07/14/2011
Now most Greeks in Athens live the typical easy life as with most modern Western cities...

The Greeks for that matter, most of them in Athens could simply go back to the villages of their families and live off the land, very easy transition for most that is if they have relatives and property to grow food with...

It would mean giving up the Mercedes for a Donkey but oh well right...
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04:06 AM on 07/14/2011
So, default would be a good thing?
04:15 AM on 07/14/2011
If it meant not giving the banks and the cartel of rating agencies their profit margins and fat bonuses, maybe...

Somebody should stand up to this ponzi scheme...
07:07 AM on 07/14/2011
As soon as the banks start to think about taking public assests and building toll booths to get to them, the Greeks will revolt using their military and I would like to see the banksters try and take property then...
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JoeHilley
NY Times Bestselling Author
12:49 AM on 07/14/2011
Isn't Fitch a little late to the game with this downgrade? We already knew Greece was one step away from the big hole.
02:01 AM on 07/14/2011
Nope, these ratings agencies are playing a larger role is destroying Greece and Attorney General Cuomo is investigating their activities and I have heard last month Greece is opening an inquiry into their "speculations" that have hurt their ratings...
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Jack Glastra
My best comments are still pending.
10:46 PM on 07/13/2011
The voters of Greece are telling the power bankers to get bent, so they are trying to punish Greece in turn. It will be interesting to see what happens in Iceland as well.
02:01 AM on 07/14/2011
Military coup soon?
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02:02 AM on 07/14/2011
Iceland told the banks to go f themselves. recently they were invited to join the ECM. shows what default and a bad credit rating can do.
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zuzuzpetals
10:27 PM on 07/13/2011
Greece one grade above default--just like America, now that the Tea Party ideology has the country by the throat in Congress.

Baggers don't want to raise the debt ceiling, but they don't realize that downtown Arizona, or Ohio or Florida or where ever they live, will be being bought by China next year because municipalities will be selling themselves off in order to afford keeping lights on past sundown.

And they'll still be screaming from their hovels where they sit unemployed--no taxes on my rich masters!
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TomTheSeal
Represent our wishes; best interests are arguable
07:36 PM on 07/13/2011
We have been sold a bill of goods with the Global Economy Schtick.

People, its a Global Pyramid Scheme AND IT IS COLLAPSING !
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FogBelter
Illegitimis non carborundum
06:32 PM on 07/13/2011
Everyone focuses on Greece, but Portugal and Ireland had their bonds lowered to junk status as well, and Italy and Spain are teetering too. This isn't a Greece issue solely. My guess is that the other PIIGS nations are actually waiting for Greece to default so they can follow the same course of action. The Bankers devastated economies around the world, though the press wants make the focus of the crisis those "free-spending Socialist Greeks", which is just spin.

Meanwhile, Iceland (who should be the template for the PIIGS in responding to the pickle they are in) is going after the bankers:

"Pressenza Reikjavik, 3/28/11 Last week 9 people were arrested in London and Reykjavik for their possible responsibility for Iceland’s financial collapse in 2008, a deep crisis which developed into an unprecedented public reaction that is changing the country's direction.

It has been a revolution without weapons in Iceland, the country that hosts the world's oldest democracy (since 930), and whose citizens have managed to effect change by going on demonstrations and banging pots and pans. Why have the rest of the Western countries not even heard about it?"

http://www.pressenza.com/npermalink/icelandx-a-country-that-wants-to-punish-the-bankers-responsible-for-the-crisis
08:53 PM on 07/13/2011
I think your view is painted with too broad a brush. Mind that, as a German and as someone being pro- Europe/EU/Euro, I do have my list of complaints about how this crisis is handled by politicians in ALL our countries.
Even the rating agencies yesterday published a statement that market reactions on Italy were exaggerated. Iceland is not even nearly out of the woods. Similarily, since some like to quote Argentina: Even they paid to the last cent all their obligations to the IMF.
I am in for more pragmatic solutions. Like for example: Cut the Greek debt by using the Regling proposal (EFSF/ ESM) as step 1 and then raise a tax (financial transaction tax) or another levy on banks, private equity, insurers to make them pay their share. I would prefer that over any attempt to win a "game" which is rigged against governments and parliaments anyways.
As for us as citizens I demand that everyone just starts to learn his/her best to understand what is going on. Starting with: it's not "lazy" Greek taxpayers vs. "hard- working" German taxpayers. It's actually quite simple if each European country just acts like this: We are in this together. We have to collect an amount X of money. If 10% of people hold 60% of the respective national wealth, then these 10% of the people pay 60% of the bill.
It's not a matter of "Socialism vs. Capitalism". It's basic math and common sense.
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RunningBecky
Runner, nurse, chess player
12:02 AM on 07/14/2011
Well said but you have to remember that those of us living on this side of the pond not only know almost nothing about the reality of Europe but what most of us think we know is fundamentally wrong. Huggs Becky
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06:29 PM on 07/13/2011
and one grade below us
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legalclubs
06:02 PM on 07/13/2011
It's time to cut Greece go from the EU. Let them go their own way and be that shinning example of what can happen when you let spending get completely out of control. It's so ironic that this article is posted right next to another article from some liberal guy who claims that U.S. debt crisis is completely made up and the countries debt doesn't matter. Greece is where the U.S. is headed unless action is taken now.
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gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
06:23 PM on 07/13/2011
Very good idea.

I am going to use your logic to try to convince some of my liberal friends the importance of responsible government spending.
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Ldyforce6
Don't Tread on the U.S.A.
06:43 PM on 07/13/2011
I always find it strange that we are all pointed to Greece as the boogie man in the corner (although our economy has not been anything like theirs). I will admit that I do not understand everything involved in this but several sites:

"Although the Papandreou government last year slashed the deficit by €12 billion through wage and pension cuts, tax increases and benefit losses, the steps have only exacerbated Greece's economic plight."
http://www.smh.com.au/business/greek-economy-goes-up-in-smoke-20110616-1g5ty.html

Hearing them talk of tax cuts in a country whose tax take is among the lowest in the Western world likewise has not gone down well under the dour skies of north Europe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13890688

Did investment banks play a role in massaging Greek figures?
The European Commission has demanded a full account from Athens by the end of the week of deals that may have helped the Greek Government to repackage its debts, in some cases masking the full extent of the liabilities. Goldman Sachs is said to have been paid to help to structure some deals, notably around the time that Greece joined the euro in 2001 and needed to meet rigorous EU targets, by using derivative instruments such as currency swaps and mortgaging future income from lottery ticket sales. The bank has declined to comment.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7030186.ece
http://www.greekcrisis.net/
05:59 PM on 07/14/2011
Some thoughts:
- regarding the "tax cut" proposal by Nea Democratia (Greek conservative opposition). As far as I can tell from news outlets in Germany, the conservative governments and their representatives/ party members in the EU parliament were not complaining about the tax cut idea but about the fact that they refuse to side/ support the line of the Greek government (thus creating further public divisions).
- whatever the involvement of Goldman was, that is spilled milk and if anything subject for a judicial investigation. But to some extend I am getting tired of all the finger pointing in those debates because it resolves nothing. If you are out in the dark, in the rain and your car brakes down it's just not clever (to say the least) to complain about the motor's design. You should get all your knowledge and skill together and repair it because a sensible person would want to get out of the rain and the dark and back home.
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bushguy
A plague on both your houses
05:57 PM on 07/13/2011
Default. Leave the EU. Reinstate the drachma. Move on.
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JoeHilley
NY Times Bestselling Author
12:51 AM on 07/14/2011
Yes.
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05:45 PM on 07/13/2011
Maybe Bachman's hubby can do therapy to pray away the pay?
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themodernleader
05:43 PM on 07/13/2011
Greek leadership has the choice of defaulting or facing the prospect of revolution and ruin. Great leaders would covertly prepare for default by preparing a new Greek currency and a massive public works program to put millions of desperate Greek citizens to work under government direction until a fair private enterprise was gradually started and operating and hiring in massive numbers. Our American leaders should do the same.
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naschkatze
A free man creates himself.
05:51 PM on 07/13/2011
Especially fan that last sentence. We should have started that back in 2009.
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themodernleader
08:05 PM on 07/13/2011
You are absolute right. F & F.
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gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
06:25 PM on 07/13/2011
No intellegent person would loan the Greeks any money to pay for "a massive public works program to put millions of desperate Greek citizens to work under government direction".
05:13 PM on 07/13/2011
Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, their speculations are wrecking a sovereign nation finacially, a few questions to ponder:

Can Greece take them to an international court of law? I say yes!

Can Greece if it gets real bad use its sovereign power to attack these agencies militarily? This may seem odd to most folks but think about it. They are attacking a sovereign state and the state reserves the right to defend itself even from suits and laptops!

Maybe cyber attack for those against military weapons upon those three?
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gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
06:28 PM on 07/13/2011
Why don't the Greeks just repay their debts?

I understand, that would require that the Greeks work and create some new national privately held wealth that could be taxed in order to collect money to repay the Greek national debts!
01:35 AM on 07/14/2011
This past week or so, the ratings houses have been making statements that have not helped matters in Greece. They are operating like speculators...

They seem to be operating in some cases like their under orders of sorts from larger powers to get what the larger powers seek. That would be larger banks or nations!

Greece reserves the right to take them to court for their SPECULATIONS and last case attack them militarily like cyber attacks, etc... or worse yet...
01:58 AM on 07/14/2011
I am justified questioning these ratings agencies!

http://www.cioediting.com/wordpress/deal-collusion-between/

Attorney General Cuomo is investigating:

"investment banks improperly received overly high ratings by agencies evaluating their mortgage securities."

"workers at the ratings agencies frequently became employees, at a much higher salary, of the banks they were evaluating. These employees then frequently interfaced with their former colleagues at the ratings firms."
07:07 PM on 07/13/2011
i especially love the comment "their speculations are wrecking a sovreign nation financially"
Iceland was the test
Greece was the test implemented
03:47 PM on 07/13/2011
Any time the market goes down it is about Greece concerns about Europe of Japan etc. Never about people are not buying the stock because they do not have jobs or money. This just may be it-unless of course the market is rigged.
07:08 PM on 07/13/2011
rigged? noooooo you mean then been lying to us the whole time