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Tim Geithner Warns U.S. Debt Default Means 'Lights Out' And A New Depression

Debt Default

First Posted: 07/18/11 04:21 PM ET Updated: 09/17/11 06:12 AM ET

WASHINGTON -- If Congress fails to hike the nation's borrowing limit by Aug. 2, it will be "lights out" on the government and the economy, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Democrats in their meeting Friday.

Word of that message came Monday from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who said in Senate floor remarks that Geithner laid out an extremely grim scenario if Congress does not boost the country's debt ceiling from the current $14.3 trillion.

Geithner has said publicly that the Treasury has been juggling the bills since May to avoid defaulting on an payments, but would exhaust all such measures on Aug. 2.

In his talk to Senate leaders, Geithner painted an even darker picture, Reid said.

"He said default would result in a complete 'loss of capacity to function as a government,'" Reid recounted Geithner saying.

"Those who say this crisis would be a blip on the radar are wrong," Reid said. "Default would be a plague that would haunt our nation for years to come. Our credit rating would take years to rebuild. The country would never be the same."

"If this country defaults on its obligations, Geithner said, it will be 'much worse than the Great Depression,'" Reid added. "And it would make the massive financial crisis of 2008 look mild. It will make what we just went through look like a quaint little crisis."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) countered that Republicans want to avoid a potential financial wreck in the future.

“On the one side are those who believe that failing to rein in spending now could be calamitous, and that a government which borrows 42 cents for every dollar it spends needs to sober up," McConnell said. "Washington needs strong medicine to heal its spending addiction now, not a false promise of it later."

And while he and Democratic leaders have been negotiating over a fail-safe plan to stave off a default, he warned that a tough new piece of legislation coming up in the House Tuesday to "Cut, Cap and Balance" the budget could represent the only shot at staving off default.

Democrats think the measure is even less acceptable than the budget produced this spring by Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).

“Not only is this legislation just the kind of thing Washington needs right now, it may be the only option we have if you want to see the debt limit raised at all," McConnell said, raising the stakes in the debate.

Insiders have suggested that the House will pass the bill and the Senate will not, but it will give GOP House members political coverage by letting them say they voted for a draconian solution before eventually backing the fail-safe measure.

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WASHINGTON -- If Congress fails to hike the nation's borrowing limit by Aug. 2, it will be "lights out" on the government and the economy, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Democrats in their meeti...
WASHINGTON -- If Congress fails to hike the nation's borrowing limit by Aug. 2, it will be "lights out" on the government and the economy, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Democrats in their meeti...
 
 
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COMMUNITY PUNDITS
realpolitic 04:57 PM on 07/18/2011
A balanced budget amendment is just a dumb idea and would take far too long too implement given a constitutional amendment takes 2/3 ratification of the states. We have a crisis at hand.  In fact, it seems like an idea written with crayon on a napkin it is so bad. It allows no room to spend our way out of a recession or to finance the building of new infrastructure.  How could we have fought WWII  Read More...
09:10 AM on 07/25/2011
Just IRS Bad Luck

Well, this is old news now so I thank 'olderandwiser' for links reporting ten prosecutions related to the Swiss UBS tax-evasion scandal under Bush.

And I admit I was wrong. It appears that the IRS and DOJ have convicted ten (10) of the reported 50,000 American millionaires who deliberately filed false tax returns for more than a decade while stashing earnings illegally in UBS bank accounts.

I was wrong to say 'none' had been prosecuted. I am embarrassed by my mistake and I'm sorry I made it.

So several years after a crook turned whistle-blower and gave the clueless IRS and DOJ overwhelming evidence on a silver platter, those agencies have forced one bloodless legal entity called a corporation to pay some $750 million in fines, and has prosecuted ten (10) of the 50,000 wealthy, powerful Americans.

My apologies to all top IRS and DOJ worthies since 2001 for suggesting that punishing only ten of 50,000 (including a reported 20,000 who have since confessed) amounts to corruption.

Maybe you could accuse the IRS and DOJ of corruption if they'd nailed only five (5) of the 20,000 confessed tax evaders. But if those agencies have after two years convicted ten (ten), and even sent one or two of them to jail for several months... well, I hang my head and apologize for seeing corruption there.

Ten (10) out of 50,000 is obviously just bad luck, certainly not corruption. No, no.
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dan laurie
05:39 PM on 07/24/2011
If he really thinks that it's so dire (which of course it is), then why didn't he say that they would do ANYTHING to prevent that "unthinkable" calamity, including invoking the 14th amendment? It's not the first recourse, but it IS a recourse. Just do it.
01:00 PM on 07/22/2011
My My we still have a Tax cheat telling us how to run the country when he can't even file a tax return out with honesty. And Old Harry looking on like the dummy he is.
06:50 AM on 07/21/2011
Hey Geither get a real job then taxpayers are tired of paying your light bill......and carrying the wight of the world's debt on our shoulders. Americans fed up and do not want to pass more debt on our children face it NOW... no credit increae your credit card declined.
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01:38 AM on 07/21/2011
make the first thing to be cut off in a default the salaries, benefits and pension of the WH, congress and the senate, who are the ones that caused it and allowed it to happen . I guarantee they will come up with a workable bipartisan plan within days.
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kori77
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12:53 PM on 07/19/2011
goldmansucks main puppet is Mr.G
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12:50 PM on 07/19/2011
Mr.G is a puppet of goldmanSucks
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12:49 PM on 07/19/2011
as long as it hurt the top 10% economy, i am for it
01:50 PM on 07/19/2011
So if it hurts the other 90 percent as well that's okay? Really? Nevertheless, it is interesting how the wealthiest seem oblivious to what is happening. Although they will lose the most, and far more than tax increases would cost them, they will still have the most.
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fineartgalaxy
Speaking from the heart, always.
12:38 PM on 07/19/2011
Mr. Geithner, nobody believes anything anymore, specially coming out of the WW. Specially, your opinion. For all we care, we might be better off without this Congress and this Administration.
WWYTA
We disagree, it does not mean you are correct
12:18 PM on 07/19/2011
Pay your Taxes, then let's talk Timmy.
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stevendedalus3
11:54 AM on 07/19/2011
Obama should disregard the Party of Threats and simply raise the ceiling by executive order.
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zmanusmc
Against all enemies, foreign and domestic
11:14 PM on 07/19/2011
Oh, pray he will do it ... and guarantee his one term presidency. That would be so unconstitutional - not that skirting the Constitution is something he cares about.
10:28 AM on 07/21/2011
That prayer will not be answered, because too many people idolize him. How else can we explain the attempt to close Guantanamo Bay with the idea that a Presidential Order should be used to order states to accept enemies of the US? How about the commander who ignores Afghanistan while leaving some troops to planting trees in Iraq? A commander who snows the public by saying he’s pulling 10k troops from Afghanistan while failing to mention they were at end of tour and are being replaced? When I also consider that Healthcare reform means nothing more than accepting fund from Healthcare companies in exchange for laws that require people to buy their polices, the fact that his Department of Treasury didn’t even identify this the default until May, and everyone blames Bush which implyies Obama is an ineffective leader. I really don't get why so many people idolize him, I guess its like the Nobel Peace price....Its not what you do anymore its what people think you'll do.
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dan laurie
05:58 PM on 07/24/2011
It's not unconsitutional. It's IN the Constitution! Reading. Try that one as a solution occasionally.
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George Hanshaw
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
11:52 AM on 07/19/2011
Geithner, Geithner....Hmmmm. Is he that guy that didn't pay his own income taxes until he got nominated to be Secretary of the Treasury? Yes, I believe he is.....

Why would I believe a millionaire who didn't know he was supposed to pay income tax would know what failing to increase the debt limit would do?
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Bluepicker1987
Progressiv­e=me, me, me paid for by you, you, you
11:04 AM on 07/19/2011
Timmy Geithner=tax cheat.

'Nuff said!
11:22 AM on 07/19/2011
So default where we steal people's money is fine? Really? I suspect we will be double stupid. That is, first we will default and drive up interest rates and then we will pay 100 cents on the dollar. All the pain and none of the gain. Any ideas for a balanced 2012 budget? We will need one if we do not increase the debt ceiling. No rush. We have until September 30 to approve the budget.
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George Hanshaw
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
11:54 AM on 07/19/2011
"No rush. We have until September 30 to approve the budget. "

Hell, the dems haven't passed ANY budget for two years. Why the hurry now?
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had410
another veteran voting for Ron Paul
01:15 PM on 07/19/2011
if they pass a budget, ill vote for obama.
if they dont pass a budget , im voting for Ron Paul.
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Norma Ward
10:26 AM on 07/19/2011
Here is an article showing how, unless the debt situation is controlled very soon, interest payments on the debt will rise to consume one-sixth of all federal revenues by 2035:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/01/interesting-look-at-interest-on-us-debt.html

If interest rates rise to 6 percent, the interest cost of the debt alone will reach 60 percent of GDP by the year 2084 and if rates rise to 7 percent, the debt interest payments will reach a stratospheric 136 percent of GDP.
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TomTheSeal
Represent our wishes; best interests are arguable
10:35 AM on 07/19/2011
Norma Ward,

Good morning !

The trick here is to spend more wisely, and a little less, and grow the heck out of GDP !
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fromdnorth
OK I checked my micro-bio (didn't know I had one
05:09 PM on 07/19/2011
GDP includes government spending... wisely OK but widely is better (in the absence of fraud)
10:41 AM on 07/19/2011
If your point is that we cannot keep borrowing at this pace you are obviously correct. If your point is that we should commit suicide now by defaulting I respectfully disagree. If your point is that we need to increase the debt ceiling now and get on with preparing balanced 2012 budget then I agree. Such a budget will require massive and extremely painful spending cuts and substantial tax increases. Good luck to all of us. For the last ten years we have shown no interest in fiscal reality and I see no sign that that is changing as we march to the folly and national shame of default.
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stevendedalus3
12:01 PM on 07/19/2011
We're in excruciating debt because we have always had a radical revenue shortfall sine Reagan.
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dan laurie
06:05 PM on 07/24/2011
"AND SUBSTANTIAL TAX INCREASES." Like the big "duh" that no one is mentioning. Yeah, let's choose between taxing the rich and committing national suicide. I vote for taxing the rich.