The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For Aug. 26, 2011

For many, many weeks, we've been told the same old story: no matter who joins the GOP field, no matter how many different varieties of candidate there are on offer, it's never been good enough for anyone.

This was the story in April, in May, in June, and in August. (We're guessing it was the same way in July, while we were on vacation.) "The field of candidates suck, send us someone new, and, no, Tim Pawlenty, we're not interested."

Mostly, voters were paying attention to the pundits, and the pundits had arranged the field into three piles of undesirables: fringies that no one should pay attention to, the unelectable and "people named Mitt Romney." Had some sort of savior candidate jumped into the race this week, you can imagine the frantic headlines: "Paul Ryan Shakes Up The Field Like An Earthquake!" Or, "Chris Christie Enters Race Like A Hurricane!" That the political press would gravitate toward metaphors reflecting the disasters du jour would be a matter of little notice.

But a funny thing started to happen this week. As the possibilities of future entrants diminished, and as the GOP base and conservative-leaning independent voters started to get more and more personally engaged with the race, the view of the field from street level changed: "An Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday found that two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are pleased with the party's presidential field, compared with just half in June." Could it be that the weak field was just a media contrivance? Is it possible that all the real pissing and moaning over the need for a Jeb Bush or a Marco Rubio in the mix was just an obsession of elite, establishment pundits?

Yes, and yes.

Anyway, here's where this story is going. Pretty soon, the settled field will be campaigning against each other. Voters will pick sides, become invested. A few straggling pundits will keep moaning, but pretty soon, they'll all come around to the consensus that the clear frontrunners are strong candidates. Come June of next year, no one will remember that anyone thought the field was weak. Unless, of course, the eventual nominee loses the election. Then, every Republican Party bigwig, in an effort to explain away their own failings, or the failure of the policies they advocated, will say, "Oh, well, let's remember, it was a pretty weak field."

And that's the Story Of The Weak 2012 Field, decoded for you.

What else happened in the week that brought America to the brink of a George Pataki candidacy? Rick Perry decided that the book he wrote and has been touting all year had to disappear. Depending on your point of view, Mitt Romney became either excitingly emotional or rattled under the stress of running, at a town hall meeting. Ron Paul finally got some coverage -- not all of it was good. Jon Huntsman tried to distinguish himself as the Jon Huntmaniest candidate in the race. Michele Bachmann was declared over, Barack Obama's polls continued to take on water, Herman Cain went to the Holy Land, Fred Karger got some access, and Buddy Roemer's campaign manager? That dude just went OFF. Learn the details on all of this and more by entering the Speculatron for the week of August 26, 2011.

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Michele Bachmann

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Well, it's been a nice run, Michele Bachmann. That's the overarching message that the media seems to sending to the Minnesota Representative-turned-default-touting presidential candidate. Back when Rick Perry entering the race was just a figment in the easily-agitated minds of political reporters, it was nevertheless presumed that the Texas governor would stride into the race and immediately take hold of the scene, grabbing up support from the far-right of the GOP base, turning Bachmann into a mere temporary steward of Tea Party aspirations. As theories go, it wasn't a bad one, way back then -- recall that Bachmann campaign manager Ed Rollins said his wish was for Perry to stay in Texas. And it's not a bad theory now that we see it playing out. Iowa was seen, earlier in the week, to be shifting slowly in Perry's direction. And while national polls have their limitations when you're months away from the Iowa Caucus, Bachmann had also ceded some ground there, as well. Bachmann's loosening grip on the retail politics didn't help -- she was dogged all week by criticisms of chronic lateness and restless crowds at events. And campaign press secretary Alice Stewart gave an odd answer as to why Bachmann would not try to manufacture new straw poll momentum at the upcoming Presidency 5 Straw Poll -- they weren't going to dedicate any resources to that event. But as Katrino Trinko points out, that event doesn't demand the expenditure of resources. It all gave rise to the question: "Has Michele Bachmann peaked?"

There may be more to it than polling. On the ground in South Carolina last week, more than one unaffiliated professional Republican said that Bachmann's crowds were still of the more extreme activist variety, leaving her with a narrow slice of the primary electorate. Bachmann's pitching a relatively extreme message on the trail as well, despite the Ames win that raised her profile beyond the Tea Party, where her popularity is never in doubt. Perry, on the other hand, is actively rounding off his sharper policy edges, allowing him to still exist in the Tea Party sphere while leveraging his office for maximum electability. Bachmann, on the other hand, is still talking about shutting down the Department of Education and standing by her refusal to vote for an increase in the debt ceiling under any circumstances (not to mention her social views, which she mentions often). That definitely makes some in the GOP very happy, but it also makes her a tougher sell to Republicans hoping for a candidate with a reasonable shot at the White House in 2012.

Of course, coming in at the end of the week is this bit of news:

A new Wilson Perkins Allen poll of likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers finds Rick Perry leading Rep. Michele Bachmann, 23% to 20%, with Mitt Romney at 16%.

Has wondering if Michele Bachmann has peaked, peaked? I suppose we'll find out soon. Meanwhile, if you're wondering whether Bachmann has any new daft ideas to campaign on, wonder no more! Her latest schtick appears to be her promise to bring gasoline prices under $2 per gallon. Asserting some sort of executive role in fostering a command economy in commodities seems like a weird thing for a small-government conservative firebrand to say, to be sure. Don Shelby says, however, she has options. They include: stealing oil from Libya and/or Iraq, draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (one month of low prices!), drill ANWR (a whole year's worth of consumable petrol may be there), or plunge the nation into a depression. Oh! There's also shale oil, with its a pricey and poisonous extraction process. That carries with it a little bit of irony for Bachmann:

[Shale oil] contains a higher level of nasty chemicals that tend to pollute and harm humans. The process, known as retorting, also yields significant amounts of mercury. I'm not sure how she squares her comfort with that kind of mercury with her horror for the mercury in compact fluorescent light bulbs. Details.

Coming soon: Michele Bachmann will be releasing a health care plan! Speculation is that it will be like "Paul Ryan's plan," but it will probably go an extra mile in mistreating members of the LGBT community. One of Bachmann's donors was revealed this week to be one of those pro-bully-the-gay-teens-into-suicide types, which is a slight improvement over the Bachmann aide who was one of those pass-laws-that-allow-gays-to-be-put-to-death-by-the-state types. (Small government! Freedom!)

Michelle Obama Wants To Trade Places With Beyonce

Notre Dame, Catholic Groups Suing Obama Administration Over Birth Control Mandate

Elizabeth Warren Heritage Case Stirs American Indian Query

Bristol Palin: I'm No Victim

Dick Cheney Raising Money For Mitt Romney's Campaign

7 Ways To Get Yourself Detained Indefinitely

Well, it's been a nice run, Michele Bachmann. That's the overarching message that the media seems to sending to the Minnesota Representative-turned-default-touting presidential candidate. Back when Rick Perry entering the race was just a figment in the easily-agitated minds of political reporters, it was nevertheless presumed that the Texas governor would stride into the race and immediately take hold of the scene, grabbing up support from the far-right of the GOP base, turning Bachmann into a mere temporary steward of Tea Party aspirations. As theories go, it wasn't a bad one, way back then -- recall that Bachmann campaign manager Ed Rollins said his wish was for Perry to stay in Texas.

And it's not a bad theory now that we see it playing out. Iowa was seen, earlier in the week, to be shifting slowly in Perry's direction. And while national polls have their limitations when you're months away from the Iowa Caucus, Bachmann had also ceded some ground there, as well. Bachmann's loosening grip on the retail politics didn't help -- she was dogged all week by criticisms of chronic lateness and restless crowds at events. And campaign press secretary Alice Stewart gave an odd answer as to why Bachmann would not try to manufacture new straw poll momentum at the upcoming Presidency 5 Straw Poll -- they weren't going to dedicate any resources to that event. But as Katrino Trinko points out, that event doesn't demand the expenditure of resources.

It all gave rise to the question: "Has Michele Bachmann peaked?"

There may be more to it than polling. On the ground in South Carolina last week, more than one unaffiliated professional Republican said that Bachmann's crowds were still of the more extreme activist variety, leaving her with a narrow slice of the primary electorate. Bachmann's pitching a relatively extreme message on the trail as well, despite the Ames win that raised her profile

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Cakey4814 said on 29 Monday 2011 am31 11:22 am: Apparently you were asleep during the Bush years..add "FUSED" to the end of your name because that describes your comments..

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Comments

[arovingmind]

11:53 AM on 09/01/2011

I really hope she makes a strong cum-back, she is the real deal, a great American. She and Parry would do wonders for this nation, bring it back to the religious roots the Founding Fathers should never have so soundly rejected; bring it back to the foundations of truly great nations, to the ideals of Thomas Hobbs -but not from the wrong-headed 'social contract' diversion he made, but from his more meaningful and in depth concepts of the absolutism for the sovereign and the idea that government is best when run by an small elite group than by the ill-prepared masses, that even if such a government results in mass poverty of the vast majority of the people, their leadership by such an elite select group such a Bachmann and Parry represent is better for the nation.

[Lisa Shields]

09:17 AM on 08/31/2011

Since the GOP decided it was more important to run Obama out of office (30 seconds after he took his hand off the bible at the Inauguration) then to actually try to do something to help our population, I have known they would run "Are you kidding me ?": candidates. But never in my wildest dreams (more like nightmares) could I have imagined how far afield they would go.

Since they trust corporations, instead of people, they have always been "business friendly". Let's say they still are. What will aid the country is not what will turn the best profit in the next quarter, but what will strengthen the economy. We've already noticed the Wall Street can prosper, while Main Street languishes. For now.

People without jobs are not heavy consumers of anything.
People who've lost their homes will not have access to credit to buy much.
So it would seem logical that the GOP would take the long view, and instead of slapping band aids on everything, actually try to make the economy improve...instead of trying to torpedo it to make one man look bad. Too bad logic is not sexy. It makes no sound bytes, nor produces no headlines.

So we are left with a band of loonies who know how to do both, but couldn't think their way out of port-a-potty. Their best and brightest? Not by a long chalk.

[glennkromminga]

07:19 PM on 08/29/2011

Rick Perry will win the Republican nomination. All other candidates are a footnote in history.

[Brian Gilmer]

04:35 PM on 08/30/2011

That presumes that he can get past Romney's formidable organization. With Perry starting so late he will have to scramble to organize a 50 state campaign.

[donbrown]

01:33 AM on 08/31/2011

I really hope so. He will be crushed by Obama in the debates -- no matter how hard he tries to avoid them.

The Texan is just not that bright...and though 70% of the country matches his IQ or lower, most want someone brighter to lead them

Romney would do better - but truly nobody likes him -- even among Republicans...LOL!

[homer winslow]

04:47 PM on 08/29/2011

So, Michelle is saying that her God hated the hurricane victims?

[SmileDocMiami]

03:08 PM on 08/29/2011

Romney's "jobs plan"= "BUILD ME SOME MORE HOUSES."

LMFAO!

[chosen7735]

01:29 PM on 08/29/2011

Lord HELP, "WE THE PEOPLE NEED YOU"

[arovingmind]

11:56 AM on 09/01/2011

HE is helping, He is giving all of us the great gift of Parry/Bachmann, or Parry/Cain, in 2012. Won't that be wonderful?

[Thumbody]

01:21 PM on 08/29/2011

Only one?

[radarloveu2]

12:25 PM on 08/29/2011

Bachman is just another steaming log on the big pile of republican....well you get the picture

[arovingmind]

11:57 AM on 09/01/2011

Now that was truly uncalled for, she and Parry are God's choice, if you don't believe me, just ask them.

[Carly freedom]

12:05 PM on 08/29/2011

Every time a Republican opens their mouth I feel more distraught. Do they forget hurricane Katrina when Bush put some flunky friend of his ahead of FEMA and didn't know what to do a and what a horrible disaster that was! The dead bodies floating by, the people on he rooftops for days, and then the convention center where we saw people have sugar attacks, rapes, more dead bodies, and nothing for days. Bush didn't think FEMA was real imortant either. He also didn't like the epa. Now we have antibiotics, chemicals and even medication's in our water. In every state they tested, and now they can't even guarantee that bottled water is safe or the water purifiers because they were't made to take those kinds of things out of the water. Long term affects...who knows...Just let these Republicans keep talking...they will ruin things with their own behavior. People will always show you who they are, pay attention.

[Link Sync]

11:54 AM on 08/29/2011

This is the lamest weekly round up I've seen yet.
It should never have been published as it is just regurgitated punditry without analysis.
It is obvious that the writers are watching the tube but so what?

[craftycrow]

11:22 AM on 08/29/2011

I think that if you're running for president then you should be in the debates. I want to hear from these people. It's not fair that the media or the RNC gets to pick to whom we listen. It's ridiculous. These guys all deserve fair exposure.

[LindaCON]

10:55 AM on 08/29/2011

Obama will have to change the course of the past to beat the odds since unemployment is projected to continue at current levels thru the 4th quarter of 2012. People are sick of his empty promises. He is about to be unemployed himself! The reality is there are several candidates who could beat him as of right now, particularly in view of the interesting VP candidates who are waiting in the wings, obviously breaking liberals hearts. Obama surrounds himself with inexperienced losers who jump ship after failed policy after policy. Never in history has an American President made such a poor showing, been so in over his head on economic and foreign policy. It would be humorous if it was not potentially fatal to our country as we know it...or should I say knew it!

[Cakey4814]

11:22 AM on 08/29/2011

Apparently you were asleep during the Bush years..add "FUSED" to the end of your name because that describes your comments..

[SmileDocMiami]

03:09 PM on 08/29/2011

Fanning you for the smackdown!

[arovingmind]

11:59 AM on 09/01/2011

Why should she add that to her name, "CON" says it all, does it not, as in con-job.

[mgray34]

07:37 PM on 08/29/2011

Over his head in foreign policy?

Bin Laden, Gadaffi, Iraq and Afghanistan drawing down. Bad? What does that make Bush then?

At what point are you going to place some of the blame on Republicans who have stopped, slowed down, and ran interference on every policy that the President has tried to pass to help...

YOU.

He hasn't raised taxes, he's given everyone a tax cut, yet he's being blamed for wealth redistribution.

Empty promises? NO President can pass anything unless he has 217 votes in the House and 60 in the Senate. Since the GOP won the House in 2010, not much has gotten done. Maybe you should look at the GOP members who run the House. I am not going to link another link on the many accomplishments this President has made. What's the use, the people who need to read are not doing so anyway.

[brrryce]

08:32 PM on 08/29/2011

Don't stop doing what you do! Please! Use links, charts, whatever, but you and WE have to keep telling the truth in the face of all the lies we are inundated with. And, this is on the HuffPo; imagine what Faux News' site is like. Keep strong; keep the faith!

[DoubleYellowLines]

09:28 AM on 08/29/2011

There's really 2 axes on the political spectrum in America. One is the standard 'Progressive/Conservative' (Fiscal and Government view) line - which I'd say currently extends beyond Conservative to 'Regressive'. If we use 'conservative' as the midpoint on the axis, Obama is pretty far towards Progressive, and Bachmann/Paul are pretty far to the Regressive end. But there's also the other axis, which I'd label as 'Liberal/Traditional' (social change), and if we set that as our vertical axis - you find Paul to be up (towards Liberal) and Bachmann to be at the extreme end of Traditional - Obama is also up, but maybe not as far up as Paul - Mitt is aiming for the center as hard as he can - Perry is solidly Regressive, solidly Traditional. This campaign from the GOP is trying very hard to push everyone into the farthest corner they can justify - I have more respect for Paul and Huntsman than the rest, as they are standing much more firm against the flow than the rest of the field. The more extreme the candidate, the less likely for a win in 2012.

[arovingmind]

12:01 PM on 09/01/2011

Paul is anything but liberal by any definition of the word.

[IWantTofu]

09:25 AM on 08/29/2011

I think that the most telling arguement against Rick President for commander in chief is that with the hurricane up here in New Jersey, I'm glad we had Chris Christie as governor and thank that Lord that Rick Perry wasn't governor of this state. Now that I think about it, you can talk about family values, economic theory, who you would like to have a beer with, but ultimately the commander in chief is someone that you would like to have in place to lead the country in a crisis, and Rick Perry is not the guy.

[vernbvb]

09:06 AM on 08/29/2011

I believe Republicans have underestimated the populace. Many more are now aware of the facts regardless of the spin by Repub candidates and Fox news. People appear to finally be thinking for themselves and will not be swayed by glossy media ads or misinformation. The only respectable Republican candidate is Huntsman, and he is too reasonable to be chosen as a Republican candidate.