Nobel Peace Prize Predictions: EU, Arab Spring Favorites
By BJOERN H. AMLAND and KARL RITTER, Associated Press
OSLO, Norway -- Arab Spring or European Union? Speculation ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement on Friday is split after cryptic comments by the award committee's chairman.
Many Nobel watchers have seen the revolutions against autocratic regimes in North Africa and the Middle East as the most likely subject of this year's prize. An American professor who wrote a guide to nonviolent protests was a bookmaker's favorite Thursday.
But Norway's TV2 expected the prize to go to Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, while remarks by Thorbjoern Jagland, who has led the five-member Norwegian panel since 2009, have fueled speculation the prize could go to the EU.
Even though Norway is not a member, Jagland is a strong supporter of the 27-nation bloc, which many consider a peace-building project as much as an economic union.
In 1990, Jagland wrote a book titled "My European dream" about European unity following the collapse of the Iron Curtain. Aside from his Nobel duties he serves as secretary-general of the Council of Europe, a European human rights organization that is separate from the EU.
Jagland told The Associated Press this week that the prize - decided last Friday - would go to something "obvious" that he considered "the most positive development" in the world right now.
On Thursday he told Norwegian newspaper VG that this year's winner "is involved with something that has been important to me my whole life."
In several interviews he's suggested that Norwegian media are looking in the wrong places - and most of them have speculated about the award going to someone linked to the Arab Spring.
The deadline for nominations was Feb. 1, and committee members could add their own suggestions until Feb. 28. Jagland told AP that was "not necessarily" too late for consideration of leaders of the Arab Spring revolutions, which toppled regimes in Tunisia in January and Egypt in February.
But he added "that doesn't mean that the prize goes in that direction, because there are many other positive developments in the world."
The EU, or some institution within it, could be a strong candidate if the committee views the prize as a booster shot, like it had intended with the 2009 award to Barack Obama in the first year of his presidency.
The European debt crisis has put the bloc under heavy pressure, with Greece, Portugal and Ireland needing bailouts from international creditors including other nations in the 17-nation eurozone that uses the common euro currency.
But Sverre Lodgaard, a deputy member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee who didn't take part in its deliberations, told reporters Wednesday that he didn't believe in an EU award because it's a divisive issue in Norway.
Leading Nobel-guesser Kristian Berg Harpviken, the director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, also doubted that the EU would get the prize.
His top picks are Egyptian activists Israa Abdel Fattah, Ahmed Maher and the April 6 Youth Movement, a pro-democracy Facebook group they co-founded in 2008.
He also suggested Wael Ghonim, a marketing executive for Google, for re-energizing the protests on Cairo's Tahrir Square after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, and Tunisian blogger Lina Ben Mhenni who started criticizing the Tunisian regime before the uprising began in December.
Another candidate could be Turkey's Foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Harpviken said, to honor Turkish peace efforts "as a bridge builder between east and west."
Betting site paddypower.com gave the lowest odds Thursday to retired American scholar Gene Sharp, whose writings on nonviolent resistance are believed to have inspired some protesters in the Arab world. The second-lowest odds were given to Afghan human rights activist Sima Samar, a recurring name in Nobel speculation over the years.
Others getting bets include the Russian human rights organization Memorial and its founder Svetlana Gannushkina, and the social networking site Facebook.
Norway's TV2 predicted that Johnson Sirleaf would get the prize for promoting peace, democracy and economic growth in her country and advocating for women's rights at the U.N.
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But since none of that is true, all Abbas has done is stroke his own ego once again at the expense of the Palestinian Arabs.
And fyi Israel has been building in this Jerusalem Jewish neighborhood for 40 years. Its not being occupied. Its Israeli
"Some will say that the EU hasn't done anything positive for years, and in fact is more a cause of worry than of hope. The EU, they will say, is like an oversized jellyfish on a beach, just lying there in one quivering soggy mess, doing nothing, and yet managing to spoil the fun for everyone else. That is of course true, and that is why it desperately needs this prize. We are sure that the encouragement of a few elderly Norwegians will jolt the entire continent into action; that its leaders, half of whom are unprincipled opportunists while the other half are utterly devoid of imagination, will jump to their feet upon hearing our clarion call, see the light and do what is right."
On December 1, 1948, President José Figueres Ferrer of Costa Rica abolished the military of Costa Rica after victory in the civil war in that year.... In 1949, the abolition of the military was introduced in Article 12 of the Costa Rican Constitution.... The budget previously dedicated to the military now is dedicated to security, education and culture.
http://bit.ly/qFDB4O
I think Nobel can make their biggest and most impactful stand against torture by speaking truth to authority. The have to take more responsibility after all they are the ones who strengthened Obama's hand by giving him a peace prize for just winning an election.
The nomination of Assange for the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize (NPP) was made as early as February by Norwegian parliamentarian Snorre Valen of the Socialist Left Party.
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/226801/20111007/julian-assange-wikileaks-2011-nobel-peace-prize.htm
Apparently he is one of top two nominees along with the leader of the revolt against Mubarak.
Okay, so what does THAT say about Assange?
Really??
So far we have, sadly, witnessed only black roses blooming, in the form of the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the increase power of al-Qaeda in Yemen, etc. No spring field flowers anywhere yet!!
The success of the Tunisian protests sparked protests in several other Arab countries, plus several non Arab countries. The protests included several men who emulated Bouazizi's act of self-immolation, in an attempt to bring an end to their own autocratic governments. Those men and Bouazizi were hailed by some Arab commentators as "heroic martyrs of a new Middle Eastern revolution."
First Posted: 10/ 6/2011 4:21 pm Updated: 12/ 6/2011 5:12 am