The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For Oct. 7, 2011

Running for president: it used to be cool, something young kids and starry-eyed dreamers actually aspired to do. And understandably so. To be the leader of the free world, man! Whether you want to max out your ambition, boldly strive to change the world, or just succumb to the indulgences of power, the Oval Office is one of the ultimate highs.

Yet 2012 is shaping up to be the year where the people who are held in the highest esteem are those who aren't choosing to run for president, while the candidates themselves are kicked at, like the last remaining shoes at a DSW clearance sale. Sometimes, it seems like the GOP elites have barely spent any time at all with the raft of candidates they actually have on offer. Over the past year, they've hoped for Jeb Bush, stared dreamily at Marco Rubio, mourned the opt-out decision of Mitch Daniels, and coveted the candidacy of Paul Ryan. And as they've swooned, the media has followed, because if nothing else, they know the value in the Shiny Thing, and, as NYU's professor of journalism Jay Rosen might point out, they know that fueling the speculative fires of these wanted-but-not-obtained campaigns makes them look savvy. There's nothing a decadent intelligentsia loves more than to try to spin substance out of non-thought.

This all reached an apotheosis this week, as the Last Great Hope of the Underserved Elites, Chris Christie -- after making it firm all year that he wasn't going to run -- finally succeeded in making this clear just as hard as he could. He staged a press conference, to tell the world that he was going to go on not doing the thing he'd said all along he had no intention of doing in the first place. And he went on to tell this to the world again and again and again and again. After about 20 minutes of Christie answering what amounted to the same question over and over, the event was no longer a press conference -- it was a screensaver. And MSNBC stuck with it for another 30 minutes! Here's hoping everyone at 30 Rock got to take a long lunch.

Meanwhile, at the top-tier of the primary pile, life is getting weird. Take Herman Cain, for example. Weeks ago, it looked like his quick rise had given itself over to a slow fade. But with a couple strokes of good fortune, matched by his rivals hitting some unexpected shoals, Cain surged back -- jumping to second place in some national polls. This is his big moment. This is his time to shine! And what's he doing? Well, he's quitting the campaign trail to go on a book tour. It's utterly inexplicable! Unless, of course, you figure that he understands what's going on: like Christie and Daniels and all the people who are fawned over, he's better off not becoming president. He's better off maximizing the lucrative opportunities that being in the 2012 mix provides. And that book? Well, it ends with Cain becoming president. So, in his mind, he's already achieved his goal. Doing anything more to achieve it is pointless!

And then there's Rick Perry. He was supposed to be the down-home, straight-speaking, gun-toting solution to all of that fussy talk of "compassionate conservatism." His big advantage was a long Texas career and a desire to be nothing more than a vessel -- into which Tea Party resentment, and corporate crony cash, could be poured, stirred, and steeped in a unite-the-base brew. It was all going according to plan until people discovered that the man had actual convictions -- actual beliefs that weren't tied to party dogma. He thought teenage girls in Texas should be shielded from cancer. He thought that not giving the children of undocumented immigrants an education and a chance at a life was heartless. And Perry's luster began to fade the very minute it became apparent that he actually believed things.

Finally, Mitt Romney. The best thing he's got going for him is that his campaign has cagily positioned him as the 2012 Default Setting. Folks might not like Mitt Romney, or want Mitt Romney, but it's slowly dawning on the elites that they might be stuck with him anyway. Romney's fall from esteem has been especially noteworthy. Four years ago, a sizable portion of the GOP loved the fact that he could attract Democratic voters because he had a health care reform plan that could be a model for the entire nation. Today, a sizable portion of the GOP is deeply aggrieved by the fact that Romney's positions are still comparatively attractive to Democrats, and that his health care reform actually ended up becoming the model for the entire nation.

Earlier on Friday, as Fox News' Chris Wallace came on the air to briefly talk up his Sunday morning guests, he described the state of the field in these terms: "It looks like we've got to go to war with the field we've got." Note the use of the first person plural, by all means, but let's acknowledge the air of resignation. Wallace clearly points to the sidelines for the people with whom he'd rather "go to war." That's where all the people who've earned admiration and respect are standing, and they're sitting this one out. (Also Sarah Palin is there, but her announcement was met with a shrug and quick step to more important news.) It's never been more uncool to want to be president. But in a world where it's not cool to be president, Mitt Romney may be just the guy the GOP is looking for.

Elsewhere on the trail: Ron Paul brings in an impressive haul of cash, while stepping slightly away from his libertarian roots. Rick Santorum sees a conspiracy in the way the primary calendar is shifting. Michele Bachmann is urging people not to "settle." Buddy Roemer makes his most daring move yet. And for some reason, we now know what Newt Gingrich's favorite movie is -- naturally, it's about marriage mishap! To learn more about this week in the 2012 campaign, we invite you to enter the Speculatron for the week of Oct. 7, 2012.

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Michele Bachmann

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The long, slow decline of the Michele Bachmann candidacy continues this week, as the Minnesota Representative's campaign labors under any number of woes. The Bachmann team has had to resort to some magical thinking of late to describe the current state of campaign coffers, which is grim. The combination of empty warchests and diminishing hopes have led to staff departures, and this has left Bachmann's Iowa operation -- now the campaign's last hope for staying alive past January -- "sputtering," according to the Los Angeles Times's Seema Mehta:

"She's a great candidate but has turned into a really bad campaigner," said one longtime Iowa GOP operative who spoke anonymously to preserve relations with the campaign. "She has not gone to northwest Iowa, to the heart of where her support would be. Of Iowa's 99 counties, she's only visited a handful, most of which are urban counties. She needs to go out to the rural counties -- she would be well received." Bachmann has dropped in the polls here, as she has nationally. Top advisors have left or been forced out. Reports of lackluster fundraising were bolstered by her campaign's plea to supporters last week for "emergency" contributions. At an event in Cedar Rapids, aides handed out leftover brochures asking for support at the straw poll, more than a month ago. A strong presence in early Republican debates, she was starved of airtime in recent face-offs, to the point that during the last one she interrupted so she could answer another candidate's question.

Lesser media presence and fewer well-attended events have become the norm, says Mehta. And the lack of an Ed Rollins-type steady hand at the top of the campaign means more of those quintessential Bachmann moments, like this one:

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) recently thanked a caller on a radio show who said he'd rather vote for infamous serial killer Charles Manson over President Obama. "Hey, thank you for saying that," she replied.

On top of all of that, Bachmann made news this week for both her truancy rate in Congress, where the "tip" of her "spear" has been notably absent, and the fact that she's terrified of college students. So, Bachmann has a new message. That is, it's a pretty old message: "Don't vote for Mitt Romney or Rick Perry." But she dresses it up as "Don't Settle":

BACHMANN: This isn't the time for settling. About three weeks ago, I started hearing the mantra, 'Anyone but Obama. We need to make sure the conservative candidates stand next to the wall and get behind the moderate candidate.' This is not the year to get behind the moderate.

There's a moderate? Even Jon Huntsman would reject a $10-to-$1 tax cut-to-revenue deal! Well, at the very least, Bachmann remains in full flight from anything resembling moderation. She'd reinstate Don't Ask Don't Tell, she said this week, in a move that would lead to lots and lots of job creation. She's also decided: what the hell, let's just say the deficit reduction super committee is unconstitutional, for some reason. Last week's dilly, by the way, that China had been blinding our spy satellites with lasers, was debunked. She still gets to sit on the House Intelligence Committee, though! The good news is that "the police have agreed to find [her] Stooges tape."

10 Major U.S. Federal Immigration Laws

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Waves Of Michele Bachmann

Tea Party Statements

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The long, slow decline of the Michele Bachmann candidacy continues this week, as the Minnesota Representative's campaign labors under any number of woes. The Bachmann team has had to resort to some magical thinking of late to describe the current state of campaign coffers, which is grim. The combination of empty warchests and diminishing hopes have led to staff departures, and this has left Bachmann's Iowa operation -- now the campaign's last hope for staying alive past January -- "sputtering," according to the Los Angeles Times's Seema Mehta:

"She's a great candidate but has turned into a really bad campaigner," said one longtime Iowa GOP operative who spoke anonymously to preserve relations with the campaign. "She has not gone to northwest Iowa, to the heart of where her support would be. Of Iowa's 99 counties, she's only visited a handful, most of which are urban counties. She needs to go out to the rural counties -- she would be well received."

Bachmann has dropped in the polls here, as she has nationally. Top advisors have left or been forced out. Reports of lackluster fundraising were bolstered by her campaign's plea to supporters last week for "emergency" contributions.

At an event in Cedar Rapids, aides handed out leftover brochures asking for support at the straw poll, more than a month ago. A strong presence in early Republican debates, she was starved of airtime in recent face-offs, to the point that during the last one she interrupted so she could answer another candidate's question.

Lesser media presence and fewer well-attended events have become the norm, says Mehta. And the lack of an Ed Rollins-type steady hand at the top of the campaign means more of those quintessential Bachmann moments, like this one:

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) recently thanked a caller on a radio show who said he'd rather vote for infamous serial killer Charles Manson over President Obama. "Hey, thank you for saying that," she replied.

On top of all of that, Bachmann made news this week for both her ... more

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Comments

[Julie99]

05:55 AM on 10/13/2011

GOP reminds me of the fairy tale, "The Emperor's New Clothes". Shouting promise and hope, and, then you see their asses.

[tampajohn]

09:29 AM on 10/10/2011

Another debate tomorrow ---- another shifting ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

[Mariel]

03:48 AM on 10/10/2011

Few people mention Huntsman. He was on Huckabee this weekend, and as he ended his interesting conversation, he seemed to hint that he would be getting together with Huck "later".
Maybe thinking ahead to 2016? Or maybe even to a brokered convention? He has indicated some time in this campaign that he would be willing to be Vice-President. Willing to work his way up, in other words. I like his style. I don't know much about his policies, as he isn't given much chance to talk. With all this talk of people who are NOT ready, one might consider those who are overlooked who are still running, Huntsman and three others, on the Republican side.

[PickedName]

02:49 AM on 10/10/2011

After rereading this article, I took particular note of the defense of Rick Perry in it. What's missing from that is the large cash transactions from the maker of the drug to Perry's campaign. While only about 12k, if memory serves, went directly into his campaign coffers, that wasn't the end of it. Huge sums were donated to the RGA, and transferred to him from there (hundreds of thousands). Plus, he has a close friend and former campaign manager who was hired on by Merck to the tune of hundreds of thousands in salary to lobby Perry about it. Furthermore, he didn't try to pass it legitimately, instead he did an end run around the legislature and tried to push it into law with an executive order. If he felt this was a good issue, why not appeal to the voters as well as push the legislature to pass that as a law, instead of waiting till legislature was out and he could just order it?

It reeks of corruption. If that wasn't there, and I felt that he actually believed that he was trying to do something good, and he'd used the proper legislative process, I'd be far more forgiving. I don't forgive corruption or governors who take cash to pass laws. I can only imagine what he'd do in the White House, and frankly, that type of behavior is totally unacceptable.

[FormerlyTCnSRQ]

11:28 PM on 10/09/2011

Chris Christie sure sank fast as a topic of interest

[greatlardini]

07:23 AM on 10/10/2011

you didn't expect him to float, did you?

[Desolati0n]

08:22 AM on 10/10/2011

Not sure if you intended it that way, but I lol'd so hard.

[stockstruk]

11:25 PM on 10/09/2011

Think we need a new law.
If you decide to run for President of the United States, and you have an elected office at that time, you must give up that office. Elected office in the congress, house, state government, city, local, etc.
How many of these people do you think would run if they had to abide by that?

[javagirl023]

11:04 PM on 10/09/2011

The basic, underlying problem is that the Republican party right now has too many purity tests, too many pledges and too much policy that at the end of the day is harmful to it's citizenry. The candidates that come closest to passing end up being nutty, like Bachman, unable to compromise, like Ron Paul, or lacking in ethics--Perry. The only one close to the mainstream is Romney. He will end up with the nomination, will garner the big money but may not electrify the base. No one else will run that has a shot.

[garymc8]

10:26 PM on 10/09/2011

like she was ever was a real choice.

[Desolati0n]

08:23 AM on 10/10/2011

Newt Gingrich?

[North2011]

10:04 PM on 10/09/2011

"Chances are, the Paul campaign understands that in order to move into the top tier of candidates, they're going to have to sell out their principles a little bit"

Ron Paul NEVER FLIP-FLOPS on issues to sway voters. How can you compare honest Ron Paul to FLIP-FLOPPER Romney?

Sorry Linkins, you LOSE!

[Desolati0n]

08:25 AM on 10/10/2011

I support Ron Paul and I have to admit I agree with you. Not saying he should flip on his basic principals but some of them he might need to flip on just so he can even be considered for President. However as of now, he's not doing too bad. In my opinion he's one of the only people I would vote for, provided Chris Christie didn't run...which he won't.

[Ellen Heiserbinette]

09:59 PM on 10/09/2011

What the fudge is wrong with all these knuckleheads? Do they really think someone with a brain would vote for them?

[vallesula]

08:54 PM on 10/09/2011

Herman is about to interrupt his campaign to go on a book tour.

At least, he is being honest with the American people - by alerting us, he's going after HIS big bucks; unlike McCain who interrupted his to try blowing smoke up our ar$e$ - consideringthe fact he knows NOT much on the economy.

Herman, Bachmann, and a good many of these people get into the race for SELF ENRICHMENT for they know, they don't stand a chance of landing Dah-Job !.

Pay attention people, while in the race, now that they have national notoriety, they will write books and do whatever it takes to make a buck before their 5 minutes are up.

Since love tabloids, let me give you a little ....

...and did you know, the mama grissley has amazaed enough pesos and was able to buy a multi-million dollars estate in Arizona ?????....

I'm still waiting for her to annouce it IS Ocean Front Property.

[vallesula]

08:49 PM on 10/09/2011

So tell me people, how many jobs creations plans were mentioned today, by these wanna-be presidents, on the Sunday talk shows ????.

Thus far, I have not sen any here, apparently, all these tops ARE on their side-shows.

[time2talk]

08:40 PM on 10/09/2011

And back in CA, our Governor just banned the sale of shark fins. I guess they are some delicacy. Sometimes even our side seems surreal.

[dennishastings]

08:54 PM on 10/09/2011

Come on, that's not even objective. Some sharks are becoming endangered because they only cut off the fins, they don't use the rest, then they dump the shark back into the sea.

If you are on 'our side' you need to read a little about these things.

[garymc8]

10:27 PM on 10/09/2011

they will do to you what they do to sharks.

[time2talk]

08:38 PM on 10/09/2011

You half to hand it to them. They say the dumbest things. I'd hide my head in shame, but not the GOP. Their group just comes right back and tries something else. This should be some debate that's coming up. Bachmann just said she thought the occupiers should protest closer to the White House.

[garymc8]

10:28 PM on 10/09/2011

the gop just comes right out and tells outrageous LIES

[giono]

08:34 PM on 10/09/2011

Say Goodbye .. Michele