IA-2012 Caucus: 26% Romney, 20% Cain, 11% Paul, 11% Perry (NBC/Marist 10/3-5)

NBC News / Marist
10/3-5/11; 2,836 registered voters, 1.8% margin of error
371 likely Republican caucus-goers, 5.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
NBc story, results

Iowa

2012 President: Republican Caucus
26% Romney
20% Cain
11% Paul
11% Perry
11% Bachmann
5% Gingrich
3% Santorum
1% Huntsman
1% Johnson
(chart)

2012 President: General Election
43% Obama (D), 40% Romney (R)
46% Obama (D), 37% Perry (R)

Comments

[-iVote-]

11:22 AM on 10/11/2011

Does anyone else not see how beneficial Cain's rise is to Romney? It's the same reason why Romney is propping Cain up in interviews and debates.

For one, Cain will be a lot easier to beat than someone like Perry. Cain has just a fraction of Perry's $17 million, and not even close to the same amount of resources. Secondly, I believe that Cain doesn't want to be POTUS as much as Perry does. While Perry would drag this fight out as long as he'd have to, Cain won't. I can honestly envision a scenario in which after a strong showing by Cain in Iowa, Mitt Romney invites him out for lunch. Romney offers to make him his VP if he drops out and endorses him, and Cain does so gladly.

Team Romney have repelled Perry's rise brilliantly.

[Bukama]

11:29 AM on 10/11/2011

I think you are spot on. Perry was his biggest threat, and thanks to Perry' self-immolation, and the suitability of Cain as an alternative, Romney's path is getting clearer. And if Cain doesn't make too many gaffes, he'll get a VP nod, or at least a high cabinet position. I think Cain does want to be President, but is willing to wait another cycle.

[Bukama]

11:38 AM on 10/11/2011

P.S. The attack on Mormonism by a Perry supporter is also working in favor of Romney. It is taking the sting out of the issue, more than a year before the actual election will happen. The evangelical conservatives now have a good month or two to work out their rationalization for being able to support Romney. After all, God used Ruth, a non-Jew, to carry out his will in the old testament. In the new testament, the Good Samaritan was not one of the chosen faithful. There will be plenty of time to calm down all but the most rabid "defenders of the faith." Jesus Himself said:

John said, "Master, we saw one casting out devils in thy name; and we forbade him, because he followeth not with us."

And Jesus answered and said unto him, "Forbid him not: for he that is not against us is for us."

Luke 9:49-50 and also Mark 9:38-40

[StatsNpolls1]

12:04 PM on 10/11/2011

Pastor Jeffries even said that he would vote for Romney over B0B0 in the general, so the general will not be an issue with the Evangelicals.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

10:50 AM on 10/11/2011

I just looked at the actual poll and Obama is up by 3 over Romney. I thought it might be an error

[Field Marshall]

10:13 AM on 10/11/2011

Should be 43% Obama - 40% Romney.

So Romney is leading in a state he is not campaigning in?