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Apple Blames iPhone Rumors For Earnings Miss

First Posted: 10/18/11 09:10 PM ET Updated: 12/18/11 05:12 AM ET

Iphone Rumors

By Poornima Gupta and Edwin Chan

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc stunned Wall Street by reporting results that missed expectations for the first time in years, blaming rumors of the new iPhone for hurting demand in the September quarter.

Shares of Apple fell 7 percent in extended trading on Tuesday, wiping some $27 billion off the value of the world's largest technology company.

It was Apple's first quarterly earnings under Chief Executive Tim Cook, who took over from Steve Jobs in August at a critical juncture for the company. Apple is battling Google Inc in the mobile arena, as well as other challengers such as Samsung and Amazon.com Inc.

"Investors are going to start to speculate that there is change under way now that Jobs is gone, and that there's trouble ahead. We don't share that point," said Channing Smith, co-manager at Capital Advisors Growth Fund, which holds Apple shares.

"The iPhone is where the weakness was and it's an explainable one. The strong demand for the iPhone 4S set up strong demand for the holiday season."

Apple said it sold 17.07 million iPhones in its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 24 -- well short of the roughly 20 million forecast by analysts. The iPhone is Apple's flagship product, yielding some 40 percent of annual sales.

Revenue rose 39 percent to $28.27 billion, lower than the average analyst estimate of $29.69 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. It was the first time Apple missed revenue expectations since the fiscal fourth quarter of 2008.

Net profit was $6.62 billion, or $7.05 a share. That fell shy of expectations for earnings of $7.39 per share. The last time Apple missed EPS estimates was in the first quarter of 2001, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

"Expectations for this company were red-hot, that is why we downgraded it," said BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis, who lowered his rating on the shares days before. "The reality is their business is not an annuity. They have to sell their quarter's worth of revenue every 90 days."

"They had a big upgrade cycle with the iPhone, the numbers came in weak. They need to set records every time they report to keep up the momentum."

Apple executives said consumers had postponed purchase decisions until the crucial holiday quarter because of speculation that a new phone was on the way. Apple unveiled the iPhone 4S in early October, and it hit stores last Friday.

Apple -- which typically offers projections so conservative they are disregarded -- on Tuesday forecast December quarter revenue and earnings above Wall Street's estimates.

"There's no question this was a transition quarter ahead of the 4S," said WP Stewart portfolio manager Michael Walker. "With the early pace of iPhone 4S sales, my guess is that disappointment is relatively short-lived."

"I'm not going to call Q3 a throwaway quarter for iPhones, but it was definitely a transition."

A PERIOD OF TRANSITION

Cook started his first earnings conference call as CEO by honoring Jobs, who died on October 5 after a years-long battle against pancreatic cancer.

He said he was "very confident" of posting record iPhone sales in the current quarter. The company moved 4 million iPhone 4S units -- more than double its predecessor -- in its first three days, despite lukewarm reviews.

Another area for optimism for Apple was iPads. The company moved 11.12 million units during the quarter despite attempts by various manufacturers, including Samsung, to capture a slice of the tablet market. Now Amazon.com has also entered the fray with its Kindle Fire tablet.

Acknowledging the competition, Cook said it was "reasonable to say" none of Apple's rivals have gained any traction, and he expected the tablet market to be bigger than personal computer in the long term.

Cook also told analysts that Greater China -- mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan -- was becoming an all-important region for Apple as it has "quickly become No. 2 on our list of top revenue countries very, very quickly." Revenue from the region increased four-fold to $4.5 billion during the quarter.

The new CEO fielded questions on Apple's cash pile of over $81 billion, saying the money provided flexibility for acquisitions and investing in the supply chain.

"That said, I'm not religious about holding cash or not holding it," he added. "It's a topic for the board on an ongoing basis."

Apple's Mac sales saw a large spike during the September quarter but it failed to lift earnings. Apple sold 4.89 million Macs, up 27 percent from a year ago.

Gross margin came to 40.3 percent -- a tad higher than Wall Street's forecast of 39.74 percent. International sales accounted for 63 percent of the quarter's revenue.

"We expected iPhone sales to decline in the September quarter from the June quarter as a result of the announcements we made ... in June, where we said we would launch iOS 5 and iCloud in fall," Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Financial Officer, said in an interview with Reuters.

"That basically created the rumor of the day across the September quarter, especially at the end."

Apple said it expected December quarter earnings of $9.30 a share on revenue of about $37 billion. Wall Street is projecting $9.01 for the period, but it was unclear if that was comparable.

"What is interesting is the guidance is less conservative than usual for their next quarter. It's a timing issue, where it looks like the business that people thought would be in the September quarter is occurring in the December quarter," said Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu.

Apple shares fell to $394.78 in after-hours trading, after closing at $422.24 on the Nasdaq.

(Additional reporting by Edwin Chan in Los Angeles, Liana Baker and Jennifer Saba in New York; Editing by Gary Hill, Bernard Orr)

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions

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By Poornima Gupta and Edwin Chan SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc stunned Wall Street by reporting results that missed expectations for the first time in years, blaming rumors of the new iPh...
By Poornima Gupta and Edwin Chan SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc stunned Wall Street by reporting results that missed expectations for the first time in years, blaming rumors of the new iPh...
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04:32 PM on 10/20/2011
And we all know that Apple never approves, promotes or benefits from hype, rumor and media frenzy about it's products.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jose A Ibarra
Political Scientist
03:46 PM on 10/19/2011
Maybe people wouldn't need to create rumors if Apple didn't act like releasing or hinting at details more than 2 weeks before the release date was like compromising national security.

Blame yourselves.
03:39 PM on 10/19/2011
Sick of these geeks who worship a phone release. Get a life. I hope Apple falls apart. Jobs is not a God.
03:25 PM on 10/19/2011
Overreaction to a simple comment... Yes, all the rumors of a new iPhone coming out obviously affected sales in the short-term. Why buy the old model, if a new one is shortly being released?

The huge opening weekend sales of the iPhone 4S shows that there was a pent-up demand. The next quarter should be a huge one for Apple. I doubt they're losing any sleep over this one.
02:52 PM on 10/19/2011
One of many reasons why Apple's sales will be off in the near future...

http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/19/nokia-800-press-shots-leak-espoos-windows-phone-mango-lovechil/
10:32 PM on 10/19/2011
We'll come back to check on your prediction.

Mine would be that windows phone won't gain much traction, and that the traction it does gain will come mostly at the expense of BB, webOS, and some android users. Apple has the highest consumer satisfaction rating of any smartphone, and has held that title for 5 straight years. If you think satisfied Apple customers are going to defect en masse to a brand new OS made by a company many of them despise, I think you might want to reconsider.
10:59 PM on 10/19/2011
If you read all my posts at no point did I mention MSFT getting Apple customers...however from my anecdotal experience with my friends who have iProducts, are not rabid Apple cultists, and are more openminded, they are genuinely interested in Windows Phone...let's face it, the App interface is old and clunky. Why can't these processes be built into the OS so that they work seemlessly in the background? That is where WP7 will win the game and with the amazing Nokia phones MSFT has coming out next week, along with a huge marketing blitz, this will give consumers more choices. I'm no MSFT apologist, back in the 80's they did some bad things and paid the price for it but they are a much better corporation today and are much more civiv minded than Apple, which I feel has turned into a very ominous company bullying people and having its products made in less than ideal conditions. It's an ecosystem and Bill Gates and MSFT does a much better job of trying to make the world a better place. Apple only has 5% of the computer market. Their share of the cellphone market will dwindle because the competition has caught up and surpassed Apple. Apple has a very limited product portfolio compared to its competition, Google, MSFT, Samsung, Amazon. In capatalism you can't stay top dog forever and Apple has been down this road before but they won't have Jobs to fall back on like before.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Post31
Good grief!!!
02:51 PM on 10/19/2011
Speculation is destroying the market.
02:40 PM on 10/19/2011
I guess Apples strategy backfired...

My assumption was the minimal (and underwhelming) changes to the Iphone 4S were directly a result of trying to maximize profits. Why make the phone thinner and lighter when we can use last years design? Why make the screen bigger when we already have a factory set up to make the old one?

They assumed that Siri would be enough to let it coast along (even though the "flagship feature" of the phone is beta software). Notification bars and account sync were also not the most innovative improvements
10:34 PM on 10/19/2011
How do you consider it 'backfiring' when they sold 4 million phones in a 3 days, while their previous record quarter is ~20 million phones in 90 days. They are selling iPhone4S as fast as they can make them...believe me I've tried to get my hands on one and they are sold out in all models on all carriers atm.
11:21 PM on 10/19/2011
If you read the article they missed their earnings and sales expectation for the first time in several years

The initial release numbers are somewhat arbitrary considering the demand that had built because people were prepared to buy the phone for months now

It's interesting that to you selling 4 million phones is significant, but selling 3 million phones less than expected isn't
02:36 PM on 10/19/2011
Much the same way people's hands were responsible for the iPhone's shoddy antenna, right?
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matt spedale
Let's be like Europe, they are killing it...
01:58 PM on 10/19/2011
What's the big deal here? They only missed estimates yet they still showed a huge jump in rev and profit. A good problem to have for any business.
10:37 PM on 10/19/2011
Great point. I'm always amazed at how at 54% year-over-year increase in revenue is billed as a disappointment. Everyone was cheering what an amazing quarter Google had as their revenue went up 33% year-over-year. Thanks, but I'll hold onto my aapl for the moment.
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DRaymond
Network administrator, voiceovers
01:48 PM on 10/19/2011
They want to blame rumors?   Apple constantly has rumors, and they encourage them with their code of secrecy and their penchant for lavish announcement events.

The problem was that the iPhone release schedule was stretched from 12 months to 15 months so the new iPhone was pushed into another quarter, meanwhile the rumor mill was clicking along on the 12 month schedule so there was months of speculation about the iPhone being announced any day now.

The other part of the problem was that for the prior two quarters before this Apple's growth in IPhone sales mostly came from adding new carriers, and there were few new carriers added in this quarter because, like Sprint, they were all set up to announce simultaneously with the iPhone4S, which was certainly originally planned for three months earlier   (Apple isn't saying but I suspect that the reason that the 4S was delayed was a shortage of A5 chips, which also impacted early iPad2 sales.  I suspect that Apple diverted A5 chips intended to go to IPhone 4s to catch up with demand for iPad 2, which pushed back the release of the 4S)
01:32 PM on 10/19/2011
Now that the phone's been released, and it's stellar performance is coming in for all sorts of praise, and every kid in America wants one, they'll make it up in this quarter.
01:38 PM on 10/19/2011
Are you sure about that?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/17/iphone-4s-problems-issues-complaints_n_1015538.html#s415520&title=Screen_Tint_Issues
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matt spedale
Let's be like Europe, they are killing it...
02:00 PM on 10/19/2011
I have one and it works great. Never had any of the complaints as on that post. I put the screen of mine up next to my girlfriends 4 and can't get any difference. I have been using the iphones for a while now and rarely ever have any problem at all. Great problem but people always want to hate the top dog.
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hypnotoad72
Real democracy = living wages.
01:24 PM on 10/19/2011
Most rumors were called out as "viral marketing".  Many of those callouts were accurate.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
J0E1
Phil Hill 2012
01:14 PM on 10/19/2011
Wow really? You mean to tell me that without the rumors, no one would have known that a new iphone was coming out in 2011? I would think the trend of coming out with a new iphone every year in the 3rd quarter would have tipped off buyers to wait until the end of the 3rd quarter to buy a new phone. You don't need a rumor to see the obvious: iphone 3Q2007, iphone 3G 3Q2008, iphone 3GS 3Q2009, iphone 4 3Q2010... What did you think, by waiting until the first week of Q4, you tricked everyone into thinking you weren't going to release a new iphone?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DegenerationX316
01:08 PM on 10/19/2011
The Iphone isn't a bust. The problem people have is the same problem CEO's have GREED. People who love Apple products don't start rumors. Its the people that have no clue about the technology world that start rumors.

Has anyone ever spoken to a real Apple Representative? Apple is so tight about leaking out information, people end up killing themselves or they don't have a job. Society is always looking for the latest in technology, but they don't even understand it.

I don't even work for Apple, but I can tell you this the next iPhone will truly have people scratching their heads and the analysts will not no what to do.

All I have to say is 4G and LTE network.
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dbw53022
Mostly optimistic. Sometimes sarcastic.
12:51 PM on 10/19/2011
When rumours of a new iPhone surfaced, an Apple customer who was close to a contract renewal with their carrier would typically wait to see what the new iPhone would do. What's so complicated about this? Not an Apple issue, it's more a function of carrier contract renewal. Surprized this doesn't happen everytime a new iPhone is imminent.
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hypnotoad72
Real democracy = living wages.
01:25 PM on 10/19/2011
Fanned and faved.

What next, customers will be blamed for not upgrading each year (despite having to pay no-contract costs, which are pretty massive)?