IA-2012 Caucus: 37% Cain, 27% Romney, 12% Paul, 8% Gingrich (University of Iowa 10/12-19)

University of Iowa
10/12-19/11; 181 likely Republican caucus-goers, 7.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
University of Iowa release

Iowa

2012 President: Republican Caucus
37% Cain
27% Romney
12% Paul
8% Gingrich
6% Perry
4% Bachmann
3% Santorum
1% Huntsman
(chart)

Corrected: A previous version of this post omitted Ron Paul's numbers from this poll.

Comments

[Montezuma336]

02:53 AM on 11/06/2011

RON PAUL WINS FIRST PLACE IN 2012 ILLINOIS REPUBLICAN PRE-PRESIDENTIAL STRAW POLL
Paul 52%
Cain 18%
Romney 14%
Gingrich 9%
Perry 2.5%
Huntsman 1.5%
Santorum 1.2%
Bachmann 1.1%
These two are both irrelevant. Ron Paul is Americas choice proven poll after poll after poll. Main Stream media can throw up all the fake polls they want but the truth is going to sneak up and bite them in the rear. Ron Paul 2012 !!!

[StatsNpolls1]

10:28 PM on 10/21/2011

Hilarious how libs are pulling for Cain, looking at last week's polls. If Romney can beat B0B0, Herman will wipe the floor with him. He's got a thousand times more likeability that Mittens and B0B0 put together. You people don't play much chess, do ya? Tic-tac-toe?

[-iVote-]

10:58 PM on 10/21/2011

And has a thousand times more flip flops than Mitt Romney. Go ahead and nominate Cain, but nothing is gonna fire up the opposition more than the threat of someone that clueless becoming POTUS. Cain has flip flopped on TARP, al-Awlaki's assassination, his tax plan is an absolute mess, he's shaky on abortion, was a former Fed chairman, and changed his mind in a day about the border fence. And don't forget those comments about Muslims that will surely come back to haunt him.

And he's not a politician? Really? He was an advisor for Bob Dole in '96, ran for President in 2000, ran for Senate in 2004, and is running for President again. I don't see how aspiring to be a politician for over a decade makes him this complete outsider, just because he's failed to ever actually win.

I'd love nothing more than for Cain to be the nominee. But let's be honest here. Do you really want to nominate someone because he's "likeable", when he'd get torn apart in a general election because of his policies. After all, we're talking about the presidency here, not a popularity contest. Positions and policies are what people vote for in the end. At least someone like Mitt Romney has a record and a clue. If you're really gonna vote for someone because they're "likeable', then that's a testament to your shallowness more than anything else.

[StatsNpolls1]

12:36 AM on 10/22/2011

Nobody is perfect. Everyone in the race has stuff he/she can be attacked on. No one more than B0B0 though.

[stillow1]

12:51 AM on 10/22/2011

That is all the flip flops you have? I could list Obama's flip flops, but the word restriction in the comments here prevents me from listing them all. That aregument will get you nowhere at all.

And people do vote for popularity...McCain in every aspect was far more expereinced and qualified than Obama was...but Obama was Mr. Popular back in 2008...so like it or not, likeability and popularity do matter a great deal. I'd bet you a majority of Obama supporters in 2008 could not name you half the policies he supported...he was the rockstar of the moment and was elected because of it. Bush in 2000 beat gore almsot entirely on likeability...gore was the veep of a popular outgoing president with a good economy, he should have won that election easily. But Bush was highly likeable, people liked him.

Cain has a very compelling personal success story of accomplishment after accomplishment. And lets not forget, re-elections are pretty much all about the incumbent, the opponent only has to come off as acceptable. Obama is the one who has to defend his record on high unemployment, the bad economy, the out of control deficits, etc...not Cain.

Yes We cain!

[Xenobion]

03:43 AM on 10/22/2011

Cain simply put is easier to destroy because he isn't a politician. He's the easiest to take down if he has no handlers. His biggest strength is is weakness. No surprises here.

[StatsNpolls1]

04:25 AM on 10/22/2011

Obviously he is gonna need to hire a top notch manager and be able to fund a full blown campaign. Other than that, what's to stop him from keeping his current performance level? He is a natural performer, and nobody has more negative ad material of gaffes and flip flops than B0B0. So, I don't really follow your point.

Seriously, you guys understandably don't let your minds wonder there often, but B0B0's million TV camera hours are a treasure trove of negative campaign material, should the need ever arise.

[Joe Pithier]

01:42 PM on 10/25/2011

Saw this right after watching the Rachel Maddow video linking Cain to AFP/The Koch Brothers. It's clear that the dude has his fair share of handlers...

[Dave WI]

10:01 PM on 10/21/2011

Also, note the 7.4% margin of error. Hefty.

[Xenobion]

08:45 PM on 10/21/2011

What's Romney's strategy again? Pretend like he's already won the nomination? Sheesh, its not looking good out there for him. Wonder when the big guns will come out against Cain.

[axt113]

08:58 PM on 10/21/2011

Romney's problem is he's not well liked in his own party, Cain on the other hand is well liked, Romney's only hope is that Cain either self destructs or he runs out of money, otherwise I see Cain winning Iowa, and then SC and Florida and taking the nomination.

[stillow1]

01:00 AM on 10/22/2011

Almost all pollsters find Romney with pretty good favorability. His last 7 non PPP favorability polls are +11, +11, +10, +8, +8, +12, +13. What are Obama's you ask? +8, +1, -3, -2, +3, +3, Tie. When you take PPP out of the picutre, romney has very strong favorability ratings.

[Bukama]

01:22 PM on 10/24/2011

The most devastating argument against Cain, once Romney unleashes it, will be his lack of governing experience. All he has to say is look at what inexperience got us the last 3 years, and people will hesitate to back Cain.

[Dave WI]

07:58 PM on 10/21/2011

2nd is just fine for Mitt in Iowa.

Not to mention, he's barely campaigned there so far.

[axt113]

08:55 PM on 10/21/2011

Romney, always a runner-up

[Dave WI]

10:01 PM on 10/21/2011

Iowa will keep picking corn, the other states will continue to pick presidents.

[Joe Pithier]

01:47 PM on 10/25/2011

You do realize that without winning Iowa (and without Edwards' second place finish) Obama would not be President today, right? I'm just curious.

[alanrsnipes]

04:37 PM on 10/21/2011

Mitt Romney just damaged his candidacy for President by saying he wants to stay in Iraq. I wonder, Mitt, how long should we stay? And while we are at it, how are you going to pay for it?
Oh, that's right, wars are put on a credit card but social programs have to be paid for.

[Symanski]

01:20 PM on 10/24/2011

Bingo. You just summed up the GOP's domestic and foreign policy platforms in a beautifully simple statement.

[Jon Konyar]

04:20 PM on 10/21/2011

Another incomplete result posting.

Another total blackout.

Ron Paul @ 12%!

[axt113]

05:26 PM on 10/21/2011

Unless Paul runs third party, he has no chance

[Jon Konyar]

08:06 AM on 10/22/2011

That's exactly what they kept saying about Reagan.

[SlammoFandango]

09:57 PM on 10/22/2011

Yet another successful Money Bomb - Blacked out in the press of course; 2.7 million which is more than what Bachmann, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum, and Cain have in their reserves COMBINED. Raised in just another ONE Money-Bomb. Add this to what does have on reserve and Paul has almost as much cash on hand as Perry who, we can all see by now is toast. That leave only Romney in the way of Paul's nomination and it should be pretty clear by now that nobody realy LIKES Romney. Take all the polls you might want to but when it comes to a total number of people who have opened their wallets and given to a candidate - Ron Paul wins by a landslide.

[axt113]

04:20 PM on 10/21/2011

The paultards are going to be up in arms when they see that huffpo forgot to include Paul's numbers

GOP loves its $9.99 pizzas

[seafarer00]

04:45 PM on 10/21/2011

better than being an obambot

[Jon Konyar]

08:05 AM on 10/22/2011

That you for that compliment.

People
Already
Understanding
Lofty
Taxes
Are
Really
Dangerous