Nikolai Makarov, Russia Military Chief, Sees Rising Risk Of Nuclear Conflicts

MOSCOW — Russia is facing a heightened risk of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that have the potential of turning nuclear, the nation's top military officer said Thursday.

Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, cautioned over NATO's expansion eastward and warned that the risks of Russia being pulled into local conflicts have "risen sharply."

Makarov added, according to Russian news agencies, that "under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons."

A steady decline in Russia's conventional forces has prompted the Kremlin to rely increasingly on its nuclear deterrent.

The nation's military doctrine says it may use nuclear weapons to counter a nuclear attack on Russia or an ally, or a large-scale conventional attack that threatens Russia's existence.

Russia sees NATO's expansion to include former Soviet republics and ex-members of the Soviet bloc in eastern and central Europe as a key threat to Russia's security.

Makarov specifically referred to NATO's plans to offer membership to Georgia and Ukraine as potentially threatening Russia's security. Russia routed Georgian forces in a brief August 2008 war over a separatist province of South Ossetia. Moscow later recognized South Ossettia and another breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia as independent states and increased its military presence there.

Makarov warned that the planned pullout of NATO forces from Afghanistan could trigger conflicts in neighboring ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that could "grow into a large-scale war."

In its military doctrine, Russia has also described U.S. missile defense plans as another major security challenge, saying it could threaten its nuclear forces and undermine their deterrence potential.

Moscow has agreed to consider NATO's proposal last fall to cooperate on the missile shield, but the talks have been deadlocked over how the system should operate. Russia has insisted that the system should be run jointly, which NATO has rejected.

Makarov also said Russia is struggling to get enough recruits for the 1-million military, as the number of draftees has shrunk dramatically because of demographical changes.

He said that the military is aiming to gradually increase the number of contract soldiers and eventually form an all-volunteer army. He didn't mention a specific time frame.

The statement marked a sharp change of course for the top military brass who previously insisted that Russia needs to maintain the highly unpopular draft because an all-volunteer military would be too costly.

Comments

[l78lancer]

12:22 AM on 11/21/2011

"Makarov warned that the planned pullout of NATO forces from Afghanistan could trigger conflicts in neighboring ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that could "grow into a large-scale war." "
------------------------------------------------------->

These are the aspects of the foreign policy concerning Afghanistan that are rarely apparent to the public and are worth mentioning. Directly east of Afghanistan, Pakistan is not the only area in the region with nuclear weapons. On it's northeast Pakistan shares a border with China. Directly east it is adjacent with India with whom relations have been strained for generation. North and west of Afghanistan and Pakistan are sovereign states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union. Some of these governments are unstable, and are still subject to the hegemony of and interference from Russia. To further complicate matters some of these same former Soviet states possess large natrual natural gas reserves that in the region (Caspian Sea region) that will require transport through Iran, or Afghanistan and Pakistan to Persian Gulf or the Sea of Oman.

While much of the world is focused on the middle east, it is possible that the most dangerous place in the world is Afghanistan and the surrounding region. Even if Russia is an excerbating force, it is probably justifiably concerned.

[Donns]

10:33 AM on 11/18/2011

Anyone who thinks that the guys who wear uniforms, any country, won't use the nukes that they already have or can easily get if they want are fooling themselves. It will happen, just a matter of time until it does. Politicians and warhawks only see short term gains when they look at things, never do they see anything outside an immediate benefit to their way of thinking.

[norkas]

08:48 AM on 11/18/2011

When you place a nuclear weapon is someone hands that is unbalanced because of EXTREME religious beliefs of any religion or someone that is truly deranged mentally you may have a real problem.

We have seen over a 1000 years what extreme religious leaders have done and that is the death and maiming of million of people. There demented ideas and perverted hate had them commit atrocities against humanity over and over again.

Many religions have been involved in the perversion over the last 1000 years and religions and you often never hear a reminder to the gloomy past to educate the dangers of those who want to dominate the world again through their ideology.

The biggest danger the world has today are those religious leaders who have no problem bringing forward the end of times for their twisted religious beliefs and hate for others who do not observe their beliefs.

[FACTISFACT]

07:27 AM on 11/18/2011

Why not say straight thing straight that the cause is Israel's possession of Nuclear arms are as illegal as that of North Korea, Iran, India and Pakistan. Why should Russian General fumble to talk boldly against Israel's illegal activities and possession of nuclear arms production facilities. Is money working in between. Any Conspiratorial treaty already in existence?

[Trajanus]

08:14 AM on 11/18/2011

Could anyone explain to me how the countries mentioned possessing nuclear weapons is any more illegal Than America, Britain, China, France and Russia possessing nuclear weapons? Less desirable possibly but illegal? Does non-proliferation have any standing under international law? Don't get me wrong I'm not saying they should have them but we'd be better off if no body had them.

[Brazuca71]

04:26 AM on 11/18/2011

Surely the russians are edgy about an expansion eastwards of NATO as the agreement when the wall fell was that the west would not do what they are exactly doing now: expand eastwards. Most westerners forget that they were invaded twice last century with millions of their civilians slaughtered...

[anoxstar]

03:22 AM on 11/18/2011

Regardless of NATO's expansion for Russia to even consider a Nuclear weapon use is PURE MADNESS for whatever reason's, regarding Russias's borders that is why they have an army to prevent this Nuclear situation from happening and there is noway NATO is going to cause this kind of situation,this russian military chief should leave the Vodka out of his daily life. Nuclear war indeed.

[6531WilliamsG]

03:15 AM on 11/18/2011

There has been a threat of that for many decades now, Look at Able archer which is sometimes thought of the closest we've gotten to nuclear exchange, which wasn't even that close. This all just rumblings that happen now and then, M.A.D. generally keeps this from happening, it's worked so far and since dismantlement isn't a realistic option and missile shields don't work that well ( star wars projects, M.A.D. is the best route. This is just more of the same, heck look at Mr. Mikita, we didn't get buried, so not too much to fear about yet!

[Mike in San Pedro]

02:13 AM on 11/18/2011

"Makarov also said Russia is struggling to get enough recruits for the 1-million military, as the number of draftees has shrunk dramatically because of demographical changes."

No surprise. Big time emigration and big time alcoholism.

Pop quiz: A hundred baby boys are born today in Bangladesh. A hundred baby boys are born on the same day in Russia. Which group of baby boys has the higher life expectancy?

[ussuri]

01:02 AM on 11/18/2011

just imagine the price of oil if Persian Gulf is inflamed.

you`ve got to be an idiot to propose rise in the price of oil.

Russians are Euroasian superpower , they want to peacefully sell their natural resources.

[Joe Goforth]

12:40 AM on 11/18/2011

The Russians would nuke someone on their own border? Sure hope the wind is in their favor.

[Mike in San Pedro]

02:36 AM on 11/18/2011

LOL! Good one, Joe.

[yorktown1979]

09:52 PM on 11/17/2011

Our government couldn't even pull of a test of the emergency broadcast system last week so why would Russia think that our government is capable of firing missles of any kind?

[flyfisher26]

12:41 AM on 11/18/2011

You think they could really do BETTER than us? How many times has the Bulava missile failed it's launch tests? Funny thing, every time the US takes out a Trident or Minuteman missile to Vandenberg AFB in CA and lights it off, it works perfectly EVERY TIME. Guess you didn't know that, huh?

[crkuhns]

09:10 PM on 11/17/2011

Global warming to a nuclear winter seems right in step with current volitility. Is this what they call population control and lemmings that can't find a cliff?

[tallen]

08:43 PM on 11/17/2011

The irony.

Russia, stupidly, aids the very unstable mullahs of Iran in their zealots quest for nuclear weapons...and then *warns* of "regional conflicts" which may develop into nuclear wars.

Maybe they should have thought if that before they took those billions of dollars from the mullahs.

[analyse this]

10:01 PM on 11/17/2011

That's not so different from US supporting the unstable war mongers in Israel then complaining about others getting the bomb when they know very well Israel having nukes is half of why Iran wants them too.

There's always two sides of a coin. It wouldn't hurt you to see both sides once in a while.

[tallen]

10:14 PM on 11/17/2011

There's too much difference cover fully here.

Israel has had nuclear weapons for about 45 years.
Even the arabs don't feel threatened by them. They know Israel will only use them if the arabs are on the verge of slaughtering all the Jews.
Israel's nukes have been the reason the arab nations have avoided another all out war with Israel.

Iran---that's another story.
A nation that slaughters its own people to maintain the power of the mad mullahs--that publicly hangs gays and stones "adulterers".

No comparison.

[ussuri]

12:39 AM on 11/18/2011

words of wisdom

[ussuri]

01:07 AM on 11/18/2011

Russians are not stupid. they know that armed Iran is to their advantage.

that is why help with the project.

Russia is resources - rich and knows how to win wars. after all they won WW2.

[John RD Kidd]

08:14 PM on 11/17/2011

General Makarov refers to various eastern European states when he states that, ""under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons."

However the greatest threat of a full-scale nuclear war comes not from eastern Europe but from the Middle East where Israel has built an undeclared arsenal containing up to 400 nuclear warheads that are completely outside of IAEA regulatory inspection but whose government is considering attacking Iran without any legal authority and in violation of international law. If, or when, Israel is unwise enough to invade Iran, then there will be counter attacks against not only Israel, but also against other supporting states worldwide.

If there are the then the expected hundreds of deaths in Tel Aviv from Iranian long range missiles, then Israel will have no option but to deploy her undeclared nuclear weapons. From that instant onwards, no one can foresee the consequences. Pakistan would no doubt be drawn in to the nuclear conflict and then the entire world would be on fire with hundreds of lives lost in what would be a lunar landscape.

All this out of a desire to retain regional superiority in the Muslim Middle East. How odd that the UN stands silent in the face of such potential danger.

[valmach]

07:44 PM on 11/17/2011

Poor sad, Russians, - Bullies, always looking for a fight no one wants to have - unless of course there is a dollar amount attached to it.. xenophobic no nonsensical country

[MekNes]

07:51 PM on 11/17/2011

Yes darn them always invading other countries or threatening them or wait that the U.S Also considering they trying to protect Iran and prevent world war your a fool. Russia has second largest immigrates population and one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world with 4 major religions and 24 official languages. They far from xenophobic like your ignorance.

[knightoftheroundtable]

09:26 PM on 11/17/2011

I think maybe valmach meant USA, not Russia. It is us who have been doing the invading lately...

[ussuri]

01:09 AM on 11/18/2011

you sound ignorant about Russia. stupid post from stupid