Newt Gingrich Likely To See Poll Bump Should Herman Cain Exit Race

WASHINGTON -- If Herman Cain chooses to exit the presidential race, Newt Gingrich will likely see a modest increase in his lead over Mitt Romney in national polling. Two recent national surveys show that when pushed to choose, Cain supporters prefer Gingrich over Romney, reinforcing the trend in recent polling that shows Gingrich rising as Cain's support shrinks.

With speculation growing in reaction to Tuesday's news that Cain is reassessing his candidacy, the most direct evidence of the potential impact of Cain departing the race comes from opinion polls that ask his supporters how they might vote should their choices narrow.

One example is the most recent national Quinnipiac University poll of 1,039 Republican primary voters conducted in mid-November. On an initial vote preference question, Cain finished third (with 14 percent) behind Newt Gingrich (26 percent) and Mitt Romney (22 percent), with the other Republicans winning support in the mid to low single digits.

But in a later question about a hypothetical match-up between Gingrich and Romney, Cain supporters break for Gingrich over Romney by a 49 to 35 percent margin, with 16 percent uncertain, according to results provided to HuffPost by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Among all Republicans, Gingrich tops Romney on the two-way match-up by a slightly narrower margin, 49 to 39 percent.

A just-released Economist/YouGov online survey of 326 likely Republican primary voters conducted Nov. 26-29 produced similar results. The initial vote question shows Gingrich leading Romney by a slightly wider margin (25 to 17 percent) than the Quinnipiac University poll, with Cain running third (at 15 percent) and the other candidates receiving single digit support.

But the survey also asks Republicans for their second choices. When the vote preference is recalculated, reassigning Cain's supporters based on their second choices, Gingrich has an even wider lead over Romney (32 percent to 19 percent). In other words, according to the YouGov poll, Cain's departure would increase Gingrich's support by 7 percentage points, but increase Romney's by only 2.

YouGov surveys are conducted online using an "opt-in" panel of respondents recruited to complete surveys, a methodology that is the subject of an ongoing debate. In this case, however, the results are mostly consistent with the Quinnipiac University survey, which is based on in-person interviews. Both confirm that Gingrich would benefit the most should Cain exit the race.

These results are also largely consistent with the overall polling trends this month. As illustrated by the HuffPost Pollster chart (below), which is based on all available national polls, the roughly 9 percentage point drop in Cain's support during November has coincided with an even bigger jump in support for Gingrich. Romney's support has remained essentially unchanged.

CORRECTION: The original version of this article cited an incorrect overall result for the Quinnipiac University poll's Romney-vs.-Gingrich question.

 

 

Comments

[indamiddle]

01:02 AM on 12/01/2011

Obama is not electable by his approval ratings......Polls have Newt beating him in the general already. NEWT!!! LOL

[WSAY]

08:58 PM on 11/30/2011

This is great! President Obama will win with no problem at all if The Newt is the Republican candidate.

[indamiddle]

12:56 AM on 12/01/2011

Not according to the latest poll posted here (see above right column and weep)

[indamiddle]

12:57 AM on 12/01/2011

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/30/us-2012-president-45-ging_n_1120908.html

Rassmussin

[lovingthismoment50]

08:51 PM on 11/30/2011

Newt. The sound of his name alone is enough to make me cringe.

[Patricia Ladas]

07:20 PM on 11/30/2011

A presidential election is too big to fail and these people are too flawed to win. The Republican Party either needs to call up more applicants or we need to lower our expectations. It's mind-numbing to see this.

They have improved! They're as clueless now as they were at the beginning of the Debates. Newt has center stage now so we're learning that he's a celebrity and commands $60K per speech. Today we saw a clip of Perry speaking to a crowd of young people telling them how important it is to vote because all of this - the country - will be their's one day. I agree with that. Then he spoils it telling them to vote if they become "21 years old before November 12, 2012." Voting age? Election day?

[SF TKF]

04:23 PM on 11/30/2011

I do not understand the logic here. You abandon Cain because he’s an accused adulterer but you then flock to a well known serial adulterer? WTF, people?

[WSAY]

08:58 PM on 11/30/2011

Its the Republicans.

[AntiSocialSailor]

02:56 PM on 11/30/2011

Gingrich: The consummate HY PO CrITE says, "Hear what I say. Don't see what I do."

Gingrich Justified His Hypocrisy On Family Values: "People Need To Hear What I Have To Say." According to Esquire:

He'd just returned from Erie, Pennsylvania, where he'd given a speech full of high sentiments about compassion and family values.

The next night, they sat talking out on their back patio in Georgia. She [Marianne] said, "How do you give that speech and do what you're doing?"

"It doesn't matter what I do," he answered. "People need to hear what I have to say. There's no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn't matter what I live." [Esquire, 8/10/10]

[YankeeCanuck]

01:59 PM on 11/30/2011

One philanderer (to put it politely) catapults another to the front. And they wanted to impeach Bill.

[AntiSocialSailor]

01:43 PM on 11/30/2011

More Gingrich trivia. For the forgetful among the GOP:

Meanwhile, Gingrich Used Wife He Had Cheated On To Write Letter Saying He Was A Family Man. As Salon explains: "Jackie Gingrich raised the daughters, worked to put Newt through graduate school and was a loyal political wife during his two unsuccessful campaigns for Congress in 1974 and 1976. In his make-or-break 1978 race, Gingrich enlisted Jackie to attack his female opponent, who had announced that if elected she would commute to Washington and allow her family to remain in Georgia. At Gingrich's instigation, Jackie wrote a campaign letter declaring that Newt was a fine husband and would take his family with him, although his top aides already knew Gingrich was having affairs and the marriage was falling apart." [Salon, 8/28/98]

[geoking]

03:42 PM on 11/30/2011

Stop rubbish come clean. Gingrich will be the 'Father of The Nation' and bring the golden age of U.S.
George

[AntiSocialSailor]

06:21 PM on 11/30/2011

Well, no. He's not THAT prolific a philanderer.

[AntiSocialSailor]

01:33 PM on 11/30/2011

Why not start now.

In Campaign, Gingrich Used "Family Values" Platform To Attack Female Opponent With Charge She Would Leave Her Husband Behind While In Washington. From Vanity Fair: "Another Gingrich theme in that campaign was moral leadership and family values. He drove the point home with an ad claiming that if Shapard were elected to Congress she would leave her husband, a local businessman, behind, while Gingrich would keep his family together. This issue was a subject of particular irony among the Shapard campaign staffers, where gossip about Gingrich's roving eye was widely believed and it was assumed that the Gingrich marriage was on the verge of breaking up. 'As the days dwindled down in the end of the campaign,' Shapard says, 'the campaign workers had an unofficial pool going on to see how long it would take him when he got to Washington to dump [Jackie.]'" [Vanity Fair, July 1989, via PBS.org]

[tumbler snapper]

02:07 PM on 11/30/2011

Newt, the fat adulterer from the suburbs, is the self-proclaimed "World Historical Transformational Figure". That kind of arrogance just makes you want to chuckle. No one believes it.

[geoking]

03:47 PM on 11/30/2011

He will be the 'Father of the Nation'

[SDLee]

01:33 PM on 11/30/2011

It doesn't matter who they pick. Barack will beat them in 2012 with our help.

[geoking]

03:54 PM on 11/30/2011

In the debate, Gingrich will not only strip his(Obama) clothe in the dais, but exposed his real image and American voter will do the rest.

[AntiSocialSailor]

06:23 PM on 11/30/2011

Please, Eastern European interloper, do not comment on things of which you have no knowledge or experience.

[greeneyes51654m]

01:04 AM on 12/01/2011

I totally agree with you.

[mgray34]

01:32 PM on 11/30/2011

Here is Republican Irony and Family Values at their best:

Kick Cain to the curb because of sexual harassment allegations and a 13 year affair but...

Elevate Newt Gingrich, who cheated on two wives, one who was on her sick bed with cancer, to frontrunner.

I challenge any conservative to please share with us any high profile Democratic candidate has been given such a free pass?

Your party is bankrupt morally. Party of Family Values my %$#

[lifepanels]

01:21 PM on 11/30/2011

"As Cain Drops Out, Pro-adultery Voters Shift to Gingrich"

"The shift in support is significant because pro-adultery voters represent the single largest voting bloc in the Republican Party, experts say."

http://www.borowitzreport.com/
lol! Gotta love Andy!

[dccwest]

01:20 PM on 11/30/2011

The Fake Christians are predictably silent on the serial adulterers they pray to.

[dccwest]

01:19 PM on 11/30/2011

Great. So the baggers will shift support from a rookie adulter to a serial adulterer. BAGGERS!

[John Lewis]

01:17 PM on 11/30/2011

This is why you shouldn't sexually harass women if you're running for president as a republican. Republican voters don't like people who do this. They do, however, feel that dumping your sick wife is alright. So my suggestion to Herman Cain is, get your wife cancer and leave her. You'll surge in the polls and have a chance at the nomination.