The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For Dec. 16, 2011

Let's see, what can we say about this week in the 2012 race? Frankly, we're tempted to just say, "What we said last week, except more intense, and maybe a twist ending in Iowa? Or not!" This was the week where the seesaw that sawed Newt Gingrich into the top spot in polls in Iowa suddenly was seen to be see-ing back in the opposite direction. To the benefit of Mitt Romney? Maybe.

Romney could not have possibly started this week worse. First, he gets into a manhood measuring test with Rick Perry over the part of his book he changed and its context and significance, by daring Perry to make a bet. It's a bet that Romney would have won, if the matter had been judged by Politifact. But it was the swaggering amount of the bet -- $10,000 -- that had everyone's jaws dropping, and every Romney opponent reaching to stamp him with the patrician elitist label. (Let's be clear, of course, Rick Perry could have covered that bet. He's not exactly a tenant farmer anymore.)

With that, Team Romney began The Campaign To Humanize Mitt, and it was announced in a Politico feature story that unfortunately came with a picture of Romney poised to envelop some poor gray-haired lady in his robot arms. "Let me gently grind you with my upper body grasping pincers, human female!" was the message the image conveyed. Later in the week, Romney accepted and touted the endorsement of Delaware political grifter Christine O'Donnell, who for some reason is a person who journalists talk to. Her praise sounded like an epitaph: "He's been consistent since he changed his mind."

And yet somehow, this was actually a much, much worse week for Newt Gingrich. Why? Because all of his Republican pundit friends just cannot stand him. They hate him like they hate a bowl of cream of tapeworm soup. The Washington Post allowed George Will to be the centerpiece of a "page of Newt Hate," in which the denim-hating columnist teed off on Gingrich for daring to denigrate capitalism. But the National Review, said, "Okay, WaPo, we'll see your page of hate and raise you by a whole magazine worth of anti-Gingrich venom." By mid-week, the polls suggesting that Gingrich's support in Iowa was starting to crumble had begun their steady march.

Also aiding in the crumbling of Newt? Ron Paul! And not getting damaged by the relentless negative attacks? Ron Paul! Paul's never been closer to winning the Iowa Caucus, and succeeding there would be a critical "proof of concept" test for his movement, and a sanity-wracking event for everyone else in the GOP. Chris Wallace went so far as to say that such a result would "discredit the Iowa caucuses." Most people simply figured the win would be a boon for Romney. A few probably sized up John Huntsman's sudden strength and darkly wondered about the possibilities of a brokered convention. Maybe we should re-read that Mayan calendar we heard so much about, and see if it predicted the Donald Trump debate. (Which is not happening, thankfully.)

In short, bonkers bonkers nuts bananas times infinity plus one! But remember, all rides soon come to an end, and after Jan. 3, it's likely that one or more of our beloved candidates will be joining Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain in the sweet bye-and-goodbye.

But for the moment, we roll on. This week Michele Bachmann teed up the easiest entry that Politifact has ever posted in its life. Rick Perry's campaign jumped the shark with a comparison to a sports hero. Ron Paul saw an old scandal take new life. Rick Santorum waited by the phone for his evangelical friends to call him back. Gary Johnson mulled a destiny-changing decision, someone you wouldn't believe is ahead of a big-name contender in New Hampshire, and you will never guess what candidate suddenly might win a single delegate from the Iowa caucuses if he plays his cards right. To find out, please enter the Speculatron for the week of Dec. 16, 2011.

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Mitt Romney

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Mitt Romney got the message -- the primary battle he once thought he could snatch at the outset was looking more and more like it was going to be a long, grueling battle. Unfortunately, he stumbled at the beginning of the week by asking Rick Perry to take him up on a $10,000 cash wager. Everyone opposed to Romney, from Perry, Gingrich, Huntsman, right down to the folks at the DNC, delighted in one more example of Mitt Romney coming across as the out-of-touch, privileged rich kid. And so, Team Romney undertook a mission to demonstrate that Mitt Romney was an actual human being, and not some sort of gold-plated android struggling to learn humanity's customs and emotions:

Rushing to fend off the sudden strength of Newt Gingrich -- a candidate who usually avoids delving into his own personal story, and has vulnerabilities there because of his two divorces -- Romney has engaged in a humanizing effort. He's casting himself as more personable, connecting with the economic struggles of the voters despite his own multimillion-dollar fortune, and even taking a new route to talking about American exceptionalism. "Most of the apartments I lived in had no refrigerators," Romney told a crowd of 300 at a VFW hall here Sunday afternoon, launching into a long anecdote about life as a Mormon missionary in France that touched on the difficulties of shopping before every meal and living in buildings without a shower. "If we were lucky, we actually bought a hose and we stuck it on the sink, and we'd hold there with the hose and the big bucket underneath us in the kitchen and wash ourselves that way," Romney said. "And so, I lived in a way that people of lower-middle income in France lived and said to myself, 'Wow, I sure am lucky to have been born in the United States of America.'"

Yes, America, Mitt Romney knows what it's like to have had to poop in a bucket, even if he doesn't fully grasp what it's like to dream of being able to toss 10 grand around at a whim. Of course, that humanizing effort hit a snag when he tried striking up a conversation with Bob Garon, a Vietnam veteran, only to discover that the man was gay and happily living his life married to his partner in New Hampshire. Their exchange was awkward enough, but Garon's overall take on Romney really encapsulated the entire knock on Mitt: "The guy ain't going to make it...you can't trust him. I can see it in his eyes." Then, more bad news came in the form of an endorsement from Christine O'Donnell, whose decision on which candidate she was backing was treated by Sean Hannity as an actual important thing that mattered in our lives, and not, as it should have been captured, as a small reminder of the level of embarrassment we should feel about ourselves as a society. O'Donnell's key quote: "[Romney's] been consistent since he changed his mind." Lordy! And yet, for reasons beyond all human understanding, the Romney campaign actually touted her endorsement, instead of ignoring it, as they should have done. (Perhaps they were hoping it would take attention away from the fact that human trashcan and Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder was also a supporter.) But as Jonathan Chait points out, O'Donnell kind of has a point. As he relates, Jonathan Weisman wrote a piece on Romney last month that very deftly "chronicles the degree to which Romney simply flipped a switch in 2005, deciding virtually overnight to stop courting moderates and liberals he needed to get elected in Massachusetts and to start courting the right." The switch, Chait says, "occurred across the board, on social as well as economic issues":

The positive interpretation of this narrative, if you're a conservative, is that Romney will stay bought -- he decided to ingratiate himself with the right, and he needs to retain the right's support to accomplish anything. That's more or less the argument Ramesh Ponnuru made in his National Review cover story endorsing him. The negative interpretation is that Romney is essentially running a con, though it's impossible to tell if he was conning Massachusetts then or is conning Republicans now. (My guess, based on Romney's admiration for his moderate father, is that he's conning conservatives now, but I can't really be certain.) When you're running a con, of course you stay consistent - you have to keep up the front, no matter what. The robotic consistency of Romney's newfound conservatism does contrast sharply with Gingrich, who lurches between hysterical right-wing paranoia and bouts of bipartisanship. And yet the erratic character of Gingrich's swings suggests that they're unplanned, and thus that they spring from actual conviction, albeit momentary convictions. Gingrich actually believes what he is advocating at the moment he is advocating it. Nobody can plausibly say the same of Romney.

The issue grew larger during the week when C-SPAN archive diver Andrew Kaczynski pulled footage of a Romney interview from 2002 in which he said, "I'm not a partisan Republican...I'm someone that is moderate, and my views are progressive." In a more recent interview with Politico, Romney offered a sanguine take on the race that he appeared to be losing:

I'm not in trouble. I'm in a great spot. I could become our nominee, or someone else might become our nominee and I could go back to business and go back to my family. Either one of those is a very nice outcome.

But isn't he running with the idea that only he can restore the "American century" and his management skills were needed to ensure the nation's welfare? Well, it's great to hear that things are going to work out for Mitt no matter what, right? Dan Amira, hearing this, responded: "So maybe it's a bad sign for Mitt Romney's chances that he doesn't seem to give a shit about the possibility of losing. If he wins, great. But whatever." But if Romney had anything to be thankful for, it was the way Newt Gingrich ended up getting royally savaged by the GOP elite all week in the papers, the way he was attacked by Ron Paul in Iowa, and the fact that Newt just doesn't have a functioning campaign to respond to and contend with these pressures. Somehow, late in the week, things started turning around for Mitt. He pulled the endorsement of the Washington Examiner -- and given the way its editorial staff really put him to a first-rate grilling, it was a hard-won prize. And Friday, he earned the backing of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley -- whose conservative cred makes her one of 2012's crown jewels, and the fact that she can provide critical support in a state Romney could stand to win doesn't hurt either. (Also, by anti-endorsing Newt, hasn't the National Review essentially endorsed Romney? If it intends to, you know, back Rick Santorum or something, it would help if it made that clear really soon!) And Romney's campaign got its swag back, in large measure by finally getting him out to interviews, and ending the media blackout that everyone had been calling the "Mittness Protection Program." He also took some of his hardest shots at Obama this week, ended up very deftly parrying Newt Gingrich's "Bain Capital" attack, and he smartly flipped the script on Newt's promise to run a positive campaign by releasing a video filled with footage of Gingrich praising Mitt. Just like that, the Romney campaign that we'd at one point suspected was crazy-brilliant was back. And at the end of the week? He got word that he was back atop an Iowa poll.

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Mitt Romney got the message -- the primary battle he once thought he could snatch at the outset was looking more and more like it was going to be a long, grueling battle. Unfortunately, he stumbled at the beginning of the week by asking Rick Perry to take him up on a $10,000 cash wager. Everyone opposed to Romney, from Perry, Gingrich, Huntsman, right down to the folks at the DNC, delighted in one more example of Mitt Romney coming across as the out-of-touch, privileged rich kid.

And so, Team Romney undertook a mission to demonstrate that Mitt Romney was an actual human being, and not some sort of gold-plated android struggling to learn humanity's customs and emotions:

Rushing to fend off the sudden strength of Newt Gingrich -- a candidate who usually avoids delving into his own personal story, and has vulnerabilities there because of his two divorces -- Romney has engaged in a humanizing effort. He's casting himself as more personable, connecting with the economic struggles of the voters despite his own multimillion-dollar fortune, and even taking a new route to talking about American exceptionalism.

"Most of the apartments I lived in had no refrigerators," Romney told a crowd of 300 at a VFW hall here Sunday afternoon, launching into a long anecdote about life as a Mormon missionary in France that touched on the difficulties of shopping before every meal and living in buildings without a shower.

"If we were lucky, we actually bought a hose and we stuck it on the sink, and we'd hold there with the hose and the big bucket underneath us in the kitchen and wash ourselves that way," Romney said. "And so, I lived in a way that people of lower-middle income in France lived and said to myself, 'Wow, I sure am lucky to have been born in the United States of America.'"

Yes, America, Mitt Romney knows what it's like to have had to poop in a bucket, even if he doesn't fully grasp what it's like to dream of being able to toss 10 grand around at a whim.

Of course, that humanizing effort hit a snag when he tried ... more

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PeacefulRevolution said on 16 Friday 2011 pm31 11:15 pm: Thank you! Americans can be so... partisan. I truly am not sure why because we all were born the same way.

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Comments

[psvi]

01:12 PM on 12/19/2011

Any one but Obama in 2012!!! If ANY democrat would challenge him they would win

[IndependentRule]

12:40 PM on 12/19/2011

" Chris Wallace went so far as to say that such a result would "discredit the Iowa caucuses." Most people simply figured the win would be a boon for Romney".

Because it could not be POSSIBLE that NEITHER party, both of whom have their hands dirty with the financial collapse could ever assume the leadership of the country....or could it. I think Paul would be a wake up call for BOTH parties. When people like me who disdain party politics finally take a closer look they may like what they see. When disenchanted Democrats who are suffering worse and did not realize the change and have lost hope take a look they may like...When the Right base who is fed up with the GOP's bowing to Norquist who wasn't elected to anything decided enough is enough...........Paul may have a chance. Either way I will vote anti incumbent all the way to the top.

[EdCorner]

02:30 PM on 12/18/2011

Since HP won't post it, Ron Paul's interview on Leno the other night where he answered many questions of concerns and really enjoyed himself : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkg9SQwQYaE&feature=related

[librldem]

11:22 AM on 12/18/2011

I predict at a brokered convention a Palin/Bachmann ticket for jebus(glory). This will cause a huge spike in popcorn futures over 400%.

[Former Icon]

02:28 PM on 12/18/2011

As much fun as that would be, I think the Τeabagger vote in Iowa will be a two-way split, Paul-Gingrich, resulting in a better-than-expected showing for Romney. He'll have this thing in the saddlebags of his missionary bike well before Super Tuesday.

[Paul Kato]

02:06 AM on 12/18/2011

im going bananas watching every debt.. i think they should hold a debt every two days so america can see who this guys really are.. has anyone noticed after every debt the GOP has the presidents numbers go up.. every 2 day debt will put him him higher

[sociocanuck]

08:55 PM on 12/17/2011

Were I eligible, and were Roemer, Johnson, and Karger to run as Independents - preferably on one ticket, as P/VP nominees with one Secretary-of-Something-Important already decided - I'd probably mull a vote for them just on principle that there's enough blame for the current political system's flaws to go to both major Parties - though clearly weighed much more heavily on one side of the spectrum than the other.

Each time the Speculatron reemerges with its end-of-the-week roundup I note the Three Amigos say stuff that sounds less and less 'Republican' and more and more like my nation's mostly-vanished Progressive Conservative movement. One that actually made that seeming oxymoron work, and work *well* at that.

A 'fiscal conservative' who isn't shy about being a social (and administrative) progressive/liberal holds a position that I respect -- and with which I personally identify, even if my voting history suggests progressivism on all three dimensions. Until candidates emerge 'en masse' who aren't afraid of being pragmatically nuanced, and for that matter don't get punished for trying, I prefer to seem like a "librul" with a "socialist" agenda.

[Lisa SpomerKrasnoff]

08:42 PM on 12/17/2011

OWS crowd disallusioned by Obama: Paul/Kucinich, Paul/Sanders, Paul/Moore, Paul/Ventura.

OMB (occupy Mom's basement) crowd who never like Obama: Paul/Ventura, Paul/Jones, Paul/Palin, Paul/Bachmann, Paul/Roemer, Paul/Demint, Paul/Paul

Geaux Obama/Biden 2012

[JudgeMoonbox]

10:14 PM on 12/17/2011

"OWS crowd disallusio­ned by Obama: Paul/Kucin­ich, Paul/Sande­rs, Paul/Moore­, Paul/Ventu­ra.

OMB (occupy Mom's basement) crowd who never like Obama: Paul/Ventu­ra, Paul/Jones­, Paul/Palin­, Paul/Bachm­ann, Paul/Roeme­r, Paul/Demin­t, Paul/Paul"

Is this supposed to signify anything other than your own hippiephobia? The Occupy Wall Street movement has given the "centrists" a better view of where the left edge of the mainstream is. Until recently, those mentally lazy people had assumed that Obama was at the leftmost edge; and they didn't give him credit for the many concessions he made to try to position himself in the center, starting with his acceptance of the 60 Vote business in the Stimulus Bill debate.

Because these triangulators have a better "tri" from which to angulate against, it gave Obama the breathing room for the Osawatomie speech.

Even if they hadn't carved Obama more breathing room, I should hardly think that Obama supporters can afford to diss the Occupy movement and others who represent the people who are distressed by the Democratic Party's move to a center which is as exactly as halfway between the two parties as it was when Jimmy Carter was elected.

[johnny strike]

08:06 AM on 12/18/2011

Paul/Johnson

or

Paul/Huntsman

[SocratesSiddhartha]

03:57 PM on 12/17/2011

Romney poised to envelop some poor gray-haired lady in his robot arms. "Let me gently grind you with my upper body grasping pincers, human female!"
Serious ROFL, One of the funniest things I've read in a long time.

[odaat52]

11:00 AM on 12/18/2011

That, and the "Mittness Protection Program" -- I about spit my coffee all over my keyboard. With writing like this, I might actually survive to election day come November. Otherwise I might shoot myself.

[Thaag Tidestalker]

07:42 AM on 12/19/2011

"They hate him like they hate a bowl of cream of tapeworm soup."

That was the line that finally killed me so hard I died to death.

[Mollyj]

03:23 PM on 12/17/2011

__btw, how's the Jerry Springer Show? Newt, Mitt, Ron, Rick and Rick, Jon and who's their names?
will be right back for Jerry's thought..

[Lisa SpomerKrasnoff]

02:56 PM on 12/17/2011

I going to go out on a limb and predict a Paul/Roemer ticket (must be getting a contact high from his supporters on this page)...

Yes, Buddy's a populist, Paul's a populist...Paul resigns midterm due to age and health, Roemer becomes prez and select Paul's son Rand as VP.

Viola! A new political dynasty is formed!

[Monte Mathews]

03:04 PM on 12/17/2011

Have you written horror stories before or is this your first?

[Mollyj]

03:18 PM on 12/17/2011

Sound like Jerry Sringer Show! Keep it in the family, by any chance, are you in Southern part of Timbackto?

[Lisa SpomerKrasnoff]

03:34 PM on 12/17/2011

I'm in Louisiana. Home state of Roemer...wouldn't vote for him, but I have heard some OWS people talk highly of him, just like they have of Ron Paul.

Obama/Biden 2012

[deusnonestsorry]

02:49 PM on 12/17/2011

This is from New York "Daily News" dated Friday, November 4,1949.

Nothing changes, does it?

DEMOCRATIC DIALOG

Father, must I go to work?
No, my lucky son.
We're living now on Easy Street
On dough from Washington

We've left it up to Uncle Sam
so don't get exercised.
Nobody has to give a damn
We've all been subsidized.

But if Sam treats us all so well
And feeds us milk and honey,
Please, daddy, tell me what the hell
He's going to use for money.

Don't worry, bub, there's not a hitch
In this here noble plan
He simply soaks the filthy rich
And helps the common man.

But, father, won't there come a time
When they run out of cash
And we have left them not a dime
When things will go to smash?

My faith in you is shrinking, son,
You nosy little brat;
You do too damn much thinking, son,
To be a Democrat.

[snafu20]

11:09 AM on 12/18/2011

you need a koolaid intervention

[Former Icon]

02:31 PM on 12/18/2011

Where did you copy and paste that absolute crαρ from? Please please please, come tell me IRT that I'm lazy and refuse to work.

I'll have you "shovel ready" in about 15 seconds.

[billw8017]

02:45 PM on 12/17/2011

Romney should have explained, he wasn't gambling which is against his religion, but merely putting his money where his mouth was. Politifact agrees, it was not a gamble.

That everybody has jumped on Romney is a little surprising. Has actual gambling such a bad name in the United States?

[RedRoux]

07:19 PM on 12/17/2011

No, but Mormon's are not suppose to gamble...so...that might be why everyone's eyebrows shot up.

[billw8017]

02:19 AM on 12/18/2011

It was a flashy gesture. Romney called Perry on his facts. As such, it was a little brutal and everybody got a little more interested in the Kabuki dance.

My point is ... why is the criticism universally negative? We remember Dean joining a team yell and being mocked insistently for his "primal scream." We remember the voters rallying to Clinton as the impeachment went down. Don't you feel just a little embarrassed to go "me too!!!!" for stuff like this?

It is easy to scorn Romney for his varying stances and even for using private insurance for the guts of his healthcare scheme (a criticism the left makes of Obama's). His war talk is obvious bluster and a little annoying because it such an insulting appeal to the animal quality in his audience. But all that gets a free ride.

[wonderfullone]

12:59 AM on 12/19/2011

Well Mitt the Mormon went rogue.

[imfedup]

11:19 PM on 12/17/2011

It was a bet. Call that a gamble or not.

[PatA]

11:58 PM on 12/17/2011

Agreed.

[Lisa SpomerKrasnoff]

02:45 PM on 12/17/2011

Ron Paul's waiting on the much-coveted Buddy Roemer endorsement--which come to think of it may happen. Buddy now says he's a populist. Wasn't one as our governor in the 90s, but hey! politicians can change their spots, can't they?

[Former Icon]

02:40 PM on 12/17/2011

Welcome back my friends
To the show that never ends
Μagic spells in Mitt's Deρends®
Come inside! Come inside!

First hear them learn by rote
To beg for the phundee vote
Newt will go from hero to gοat
Move along! Move along!

[Lisa SpomerKrasnoff]

02:39 PM on 12/17/2011

Oh God, Buddy Roemer. He couldn't beat David Duke or Edwin Edwards in the primary...

[PatA]

11:59 PM on 12/17/2011

Are you st#ned?