Des Moines Register Iowa Poll Allows For Many 'What-Ifs'

The Des Moines Register on Saturday night published more details from the paper's poll of Iowa's likely Republican caucus-goers, including results for all questions asked, a candidate-by-candidate breakdown and "what-if" analysis of various turnout scenarios by Register pollster J. Ann Selzer.

The initial vote preference results, published earlier in the evening, showed Mitt Romney and Ron Paul leading with 24 percent and 22 percent respectively, followed by Rick Santorum at 15 percent. The survey results were based on interviews conducted from Tuesday through Friday this past week.

However, responses from the last two nights of interviewing showed great momentum for Santorum, who rose to second place (with 21 percent) and ahead of Paul (with 18 percent), while Romney's 24-percent support remained unchanged.

Selzer's what-if analysis further demonstrates the potential for volatility and surprise in Tuesday's vote. For example, two very plausible alternative assumptions about turnout yield two very different outcomes:

• Her sample found fewer evangelicals among likely caucus-goers than in past caucuses, but if she weighted the final two days of interviewing so that evangelicals are 60 percent of participants -- the level reported by network entrance polls in 2008 -- Santorum would lead Romney by five points (25 to 20 percent).
• Consistent with her previous Iowa polls this year, Selzer found indications of lower turnout among seniors compared to past Republican caucuses. However, if seniors were weighted up to 27 percent of the respondent pool interviewed on the last two days (to match the 2008 entrance poll), Romney would lead Santorum by seven points (26 percent to 19 percent).

Read Selzer's full analysis here.

Comments

[dwill123]

08:09 AM on 01/02/2012

What if, Romney\Santorum 2012??? PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE.

[messy]

09:27 AM on 01/02/2012

What if? Nixon/Agnew 1968. Bush/Quayle 1988. Those not if. Those DID.

[dwill123]

10:35 AM on 01/02/2012

Let's see both Nixon & Agnew had to resign (because they were crooks). Bush was the father of the worst President in the history of the United States. And Dan Quayle can't spell "potato".

[Pinky Lee]

10:40 PM on 01/01/2012

"What If's?" You sure that's not "WTF?"

[joenp3]

10:10 PM on 01/01/2012

"What if", there was a Republican candidate, with brains and ethics?

[Timothy Michal Carr]

02:13 AM on 01/02/2012

So a DEMOCRAT.
Brains and ethics goes against everything republicans believe !

[99er2049er]

08:45 PM on 01/01/2012

How about what if a republican becomes president?

We will have a great depression.

[therblig]

07:36 AM on 01/02/2012

i know i'll be depressed.

[yappnmutt]

08:08 PM on 01/01/2012

total bee ess reporting.

[BlueOnBlue]

04:11 PM on 01/01/2012

Of course this thing is volatile. It will take less than 1% of the population of Iowa win it. It's a fringe section of a fringe group.

Which is why even Paul or Santorum look plausible as the possible winner.

[ntr721]

04:00 PM on 01/01/2012

I believe most Americansthink these polls are a waste of time. I bet, 99% of americans have never been polled. Lastly, Iowa is not even a blimp on the map of what America wants or needs...If Iowa were a reflection of the country, we would be killing all gays, abortion doctors, people in mixed marriage or same sex marriage, and the number one best seller book on the NY Times list each month would be the Bible.....

[losingitbigtime]

09:38 PM on 01/01/2012

I mostly agree, but narrow your point about Iowa to the fringe of the finge that is the Republican caucus goers. Iowa overall is considered a blue state, 54% voted Obama in 2008. I would hazard a guess that most Iowans would object to your characterization.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states

[imayes]

03:50 PM on 01/01/2012

More for Mitt!

http://www.slowpokecomics.com/strips/mittmoney.html

[zwyziec]

03:48 PM on 01/01/2012

ARLINGTON, Mass. — Three decades ago, Carolyn Caci, a recently divorced Mormon convert, joined a congregation here presided over by a young church leader named Mitt Romney. As the local bishop, Romney conducted annual interviews with all the members of his flock, and he used his time with the newcomer to express both his disapproval of divorce and to remind the middle-aged woman, who had begun dating again, about the church’s opposition to premarital sex.

“I got awfully mad,” said Caci, now 80. “I told him it was none of his business and he said it was.” Romney persisted, she said, and also warned her to avoid consorting with a group of devout but independent Mormon women who had eased her transition into the church.

They were “appalled at the fact that he was harassing me, which is basically what he was doing,” she said.

Caci left the church soon after.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Will we be getting such lectures from a like minded president?

[tnash26170]

09:04 PM on 01/01/2012

The young men on missions have always scared the crap out of me. Mindless zombies.

[factsalive]

03:34 PM on 01/01/2012

Too bad The Register did not poll on the ISSUES.

For instance, consider Mitt Romney on the issues:

Romney proposes to kill Medicare, kill Social Security, kill Medicaid, kill Affordable Health Care, kill Wall Street Reform, kill environmental protections, even kill our Public Broadcasting Service (goodby Sesame Street).

And that's just for starters,

Which leaves the question: Do Iowans REALLY known WHAT they're voting for as opposed to simply WHO?

[ntr721]

04:03 PM on 01/01/2012

It appears this year that Iowa is attempting to capture the, "least educated state" crown from Texas and So. Carolina

[xlntcat]

03:34 AM on 01/02/2012

Well, you are judging the entire state by the most extreme right wing element of the GOP.  Iowa was a blue state in 2008.

[99er2049er]

08:48 PM on 01/01/2012

Frightening that the entire middle class republican voter isn't rising in revolt and switching parties. When these voters retire and realize they are living in poverty and have no social security and medicare waiting for them are they going to utter that famous Homer Simpson phrase, "DOHHHHHHHH!"

[zwyziec]

03:27 PM on 01/01/2012

Willard spent 1966 to 1969 in France trying to baptize ze French into the Mormon Church, instead of serving his country during the Viet Nam war.

Regarding the military draft, Romney had initially gotten a student deferment, then like most other Mormon missionaries had received a ministerial deferment while in France, then got another student deferment.

Gingrich, Cheney and Bush joined Romney, who all supported the war and the benevolence it brought to the military defense group but wouldn't dare support it with their time and service. No, not them, leave that for those poor suckers!

[ntr721]

04:06 PM on 01/01/2012

Since ,it seems the men in Iowa also support these clowns, they too must be anti military.

[zwyziec]

03:19 PM on 01/01/2012

What good is to even publish a poll ranking the candidates when 41% of the caucus goers are undecided?

Should seniors and evangelicals who aren't showing up as much be counted?

Should Romney be celebrating when he's never broken above 24%?

Who has the most "real believers"?

Tune In on Tuesday,

Turn On to any candidate

and Drop Out, cause it really doesn't matter!

[99er2049er]

08:50 PM on 01/01/2012

Perhaps at this point 41% should strongly consider switching parties.

[Twohairydogs]

03:17 PM on 01/01/2012

The whole race is deciding what is the lesser of the five+ evils. As a poster put it on another thread, it's more like asking "What kind of cancer do you want?"

[j0hnwi11iams]

02:40 PM on 01/01/2012

What if the republican party were exposed for the mercenaries for the 1% they really are.

[ntr721]

04:08 PM on 01/01/2012

I think they already are....

[Joe Simon]

02:29 PM on 01/01/2012

A Romney-Santorum ticket may be in the offing. They both want to be president in any way possible and they could help each other with respectability among the Republican base. Of course, this ticket would be a nightmare come true for anyone who still values individual rights, equality for all, and respect for the downtrodden.

[xlntcat]

03:37 AM on 01/02/2012

Santorum has surged temporarily only in Iowa.  He couldn't even bring PA along with him and he has more baggage than any campaign could ever overcome.