Huffpost Politics
Ryan Grim Headshot

Iowa Caucus 2012: Party Divided In Final Stretch

Posted: Updated:

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On the day before the Iowa caucuses, Republican voters here remain fractured. Instead of rallying around a consensus candidate, voters have retreated, with the business wing, libertarians and social conservatives each coalescing around a man who distinctly represents one of the three camps of the GOP coalition. Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum spent the day crisscrossing the state, locked in a statistical dead heat. But some two out of five voters in Iowa are still undecided.

Romney, buoyed by the destruction of two rivals he considered his biggest threat, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, bounced through four events, ratcheting up the rhetoric against President Barack Obama as the day wore on, eventually charging that Obama was creating an "entitlement society" that will "keep us from being one nation under God."

Romney has been largely unable over the course of the last year to win more than than a quarter of those surveyed in local or national polls. Moneyed interests aligned with the former Massachusetts governor, forming Super PACs that can spend unlimited amounts with limited disclosure, pummeled Romney's opponents with millions of dollars worth of negative ads, driving their numbers down. Instead of gravitating toward Romney, however, those voters have gone elsewhere, and Paul and Santorum have picked up support.

Romney on Monday night mocked Newt Gingrich's admonition that he should tell the Super PACs supporting him to stop the negative ads. "I wish we could all play by some kind of rules like a game of Monopoly, but this is a campaign. I expect the Obama people to come after me very aggressively if I'm the nominee -- I hope to be -- and I'm ready to fight back," he said on Fox News. "Look, I wish we didn't have PACs. I wish campaigns could raise all the money they needed without having these independent entities, but that's the way the law's been set up, and we're going to play by the rules."

He told Gingrich to stop whining. "You can't spend your time whining about the fact that people are drawing attention to your record in the past. It's fine. Get used to it. It's going to get a lot worse," Romney said.

High-level Iowa GOP insiders told HuffPost that Romney's confidence is well earned, predicting that he'd win Tuesday night, according to a HuffPost-Patch survey.

HuffPost Pollster's chart, based on all public polls in Iowa, currently shows Romney leading with 22.2 percent, Paul in second but fading slightly over the last two weeks to 19.4 percent, Santorum rising fast to 17.1 percent, and Newt Gingrich still falling and now at 12.9 percent. Rick Perry (10.1 percent), Michele Bachmann (7.5 percent) and Jon Huntsman (3.1 percent) all show very slight declines over the last week.

Santorum, a social conservative whose high-profile activism against gay rights has earned him an ignominious online honor, has consolidated support from evangelical voters, besting Texas Gov. Perry and Minnesota Rep. Bachmann, both of whom have stumbled in recent months. Perry spent the day targeting Santorum with online ads, seeing the former senator as his obstacle to the top tier.

Santorum's closing argument was directed at Romney, urging voters not to settle for a candidate who is merely "electable." Santorum said that even if Romney won, it would be a "Pyrrhic victory" because he wouldn't change the direction of the country.

The high number of undecided and unenthusiastic voters shows: Where in 2008, yard signs peppered Iowa, few are evident today.

That's not to say no energy was apparent. Romney was interrupted by Occupy the Caucus protesters during his final rally of the day Monday. They yelled "stop the war on the poor" and "cut the defense budget" during his speech. Romney appeared flummoxed for a few moments, after protesters continued to interrupt him despite efforts by the crowd to shout over them with chants of, "Mitt, Mitt, Mitt!" He stood on the stage in a screen-printing warehouse, smiling but looking uncomfortable, and said nothing for a few long seconds.

Finally he let out a loud laugh, tipping his head back somewhat. "Hey you guys, you know what? Isn't it great to live in a country where people are free to express their views?" he said. "When President Obama is here let's make sure we're in the audience making the same sounds about his policies."

Earlier that day, more than a dozen Occupy protesters were arrested, demonstrating against a law President Obama signed into law allowing the indefinite detention of American citizens.

Paul would recognize the bipartisan nature of the protest. At his rally Monday morning, he dismissed the rest of the field as "variations on the status quo" and little different, ultimately, from Obama.

Throughout Iowa, Santorum, Paul and Romney were greeted by growing and enthusiastic crowds. Romney fed off an energy he hasn't been used to seeing. "We're going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation," he told a fired-up crowd in Marion, Iowa.

But how much of that was interest in a last chance to see the man most likely to be the nominee -- and how much is pure Romney enthusiasm -- is hard to gauge. Romney's Des Moines headquarters was home to roughly 30 volunteers late Monday working the phones in a former Blockbuster space that was more than half empty. Three pizza boxes spoke to the lack of mouths to feed. Stacks of yard signs against the wall spoke to more Romney supply than demand. (Earlier in the day, Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake (R) stopped by the headquarters to motivate volunteers.)

WATCH Romney's Iowa Campaign Operations:

Santorum's momentum in the state is undeniable. Now that it's clear he stands a reasonable chance of winning, he is quickly becoming a more appealing candidate for undecided voters lukewarm on Romney. Some voters specifically cited his growing popularity, which they said gave them more confidence that he can win and their vote will matter. Scott Schneidermann, a 43-year-old banker, said in Rock Rapids on Sunday that he was sold on Santorum after hearing him speak that day.

"I was waiting to see if he would gain any traction, and he's starting to gain some traction, so that's helpful," he said. "If I had to vote for a guy that I thought it would be most likely, I think it would be Rick Santorum."

Santorum, speaking to Fox News Monday night, said he's had voters tell him the same thing. "People said, 'Hey, he could win, I can be for him," he said. Santorum threw in a swipe against Paul, putting him in the "Dennis Kucinich wing" of the Democratic party when it comes to foreign policy.

Santorum knows his base. On Sunday, he deviated from a stump speech in Orange City to spend a third of his time elaborately discussing his stance on abortion; the audience ate it up. In Sioux City, he was introduced by a pastor and his event took on a revival feel, with repeated "amens" hollered throughout. On Monday, he and his wife broke down crying at an event in Newton in response to a question about a lost son who the Santorums sometimes reference in making pro-life arguments. "It's very emotional," Santorum told HuffPost. "It's tough, but we deal with it all the time. We get those cheap shots. But I'm ok and so is my wife." Karen Santorum, looking tired and wan, nodded silently in agreement.

Two weeks ago, he could barely fill small coffee shops. Now his events attract enough supporters for the crowds to spill over to hallways and adjoining rooms. On Saturday, an event in Pella, Iowa, moved outside into unseasonably warm weather because the room became too full.

At an event in Rock Rapids where audience members filled the chairs and the back of the room, an audience member said the crowd would have been bigger if it weren't a Sunday, when some evangelicals believe it is best to stay home. (Santorum's excitement extended to bumping his head into a HuffPost camera.)

Unbridled enthusiasm is nothing new for Ron Paul, whose crowds on Monday lived up to their reputation, cheering for opposition to the war, personal liberty and restricting the activity of the Federal Reserve. "Not only do we want to audit the Fed, we want to make sure that we have something much better than the current Federal Reserve System," Paul said, moderating an applause line that typically calls for an "end" to the Fed.

Romney, while he'd prefer to win outright, should be pleased to be in a top three that includes Paul and Santorum -- two candidates that don't have the backing of many establishment Republicans or support from the big money players who dominate the GOP fundraising world.

"A few people will come out of Iowa with a real boost," Romney said Monday night on Fox News. In a war of attrition that will be fought on the airwaves rather than in diners and coffee shops, Romney has the upperhand against Paul and Santorum in a way he wouldn't have against Perry or, perhaps, Gingrich. "Coming in second or third is fine if we're all close together," Romney said of his contest with Santorum and Paul.

The financial report Santorum's campaign will release soon will be "embarrassing," Santorum acknowledged, even though he said has gotten a windfall of cash in the last week.

"We are not going to run a 'big' campaign," he said Monday night. "We going to keep doing it the way we've been doing it." The campaign has an ad up on tv in New Hampshire and will soon increase its buy, and he predicted that he will make a strong showing in South Carolina. But beyond there, he'll need to largely rely on grassroots support.

Seeing a chance to drive his formerly top tier rivals into the ground, Romney has gone heavily into Iowa, after having only visited eight times before this week, never spending more than two nights at a time.

"To be frank with you, we weren't counting on this back in the spring, but we're happy to be in the hunt," Eric Fehrnstrom, a Romney adviser, said Monday of Romney's first-place position in the Iowa polls. "Our calendar was flexible. But based on what we were seeing and hearing we decided to invest the candidate's time this final week in Iowa."

And his backers' money.

Jon Ward, Elise Foley and Howard Fineman contributed reporting

CORRECTION: This article originally stated Santorum broke down crying over a lost daughter. It has been corrected to reflect that he actually lost a son.

Around the Web

Iowa caucuses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Iowa Caucus 2012

HowStuffWorks "Why is the Iowa caucus so important?"

Iowa Caucus

Predictions for Iowa's caucuses - CBS News Video

2012 Primary Schedule « 2012 Election Central

Iowa caucus -- myths and reality - CNN.com

Santorum sends Iowa caucus rivals scrambling | Reuters

Michele Bachmann Seeks Miracle Ahead Of Iowa Caucus

How the Iowa Caucus Works and Why Rick Santorum Can Win ...

Santorum sends Iowa caucus rivals scrambling

Iowa Caucus: What's in it for Women?

Iowa Caucus: Setting the odds!

Gingrich Says He Is Unlikely to Win Iowa Caucus

Occupy Iowa caucus protesters storm Democrats' war room

For Undecided Iowa Caucus Voters, It's About Jobs

Google's Iowa Caucus Media Playground

Iowa caucuses: What excites voters in the Hawkeye State?

Huntsman courts Nashua voters on eve of Iowa Caucus

Iowa Caucus: American Idol Kelly Clarkson endorses Ron Paul