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HUFFPOST FUNDRACE - Negative Ads Matter

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How much effect are negative advertisements from the super PACs having in the Republican primary? AP's Jack Gillum explores this question, "The AP's examination, which looked at official election results, Nielsen data and Census Bureau estimates, found that ad spending correlated more with election results than other known factors, such as a town's political party makeup and how often a candidate came to visit. Although other less-measurable dynamics may come into play -- like a candidate's personal likability or voters' unforeseen reaction to his past -- Kaplan said the AP's findings are in line with academic studies." [AP]

Mitt Romney keeps saying that he wishes that super PACs didn't exist, but he's done everything in his power to make sure that he had a super PAC and that it was well-funded. [HuffPost]

More and more people are learning about the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling and they don't like what they see. A Pew survey found about half of registered voters have heard of Citizens United and a clear majority of those people think that the independent group spending is having a negative effect on the 2012 election.

The billionaire keeping Rick Santorum's campaign afloat pledges to match up to half-a-million dollars in donations to the super PAC backing Santorum's bid. [iWatch]

The Washington Post's Richard Cohen defends Romney's idea of allowing unlimited campaign contributions to candidates.

For Newt, South Carolina is deja vu all over again. [WaPo]

A must-read from Eliza Newlin Carney, "Tangled Ties of Super PACs." [Roll Call]

A reform group is organizing to overturn Citizens United. [HuffPost]

Check out the first two parts of HuffPost's series on Stephen Colbert and how he explains campaign finance to America. Click here for Part 1. And here for Part 2. Come back everyday this week for more.

CAMPAIGN VIDEOS

Help us populate our list of campaign videos. Send any notable TV, radio or web ads that you see to Fundrace. Send your submissions to paulblumenthal@huffingtonpost.com.

Committee: Ron Paul for President
Candidates opposed: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum
Spot: "Three of A Kind" -- This Paul ad bashes Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum for standing for "more big government, more mandates, less freedom."
Link: [http://youtu.be/jSVi45vfA6o]
Market: Unknown.
Buy: Undisclosed.

Committee: Republican National Committee
Candidates opposed: Barack Obama
Spot: "Barack Obama: Typical Politician" -- The RNC attacks the Obama campaign for already planning to go negative in the general election. This is part of a web site launch -- Ottack.com -- on attacks from the Obama campaign.
Link: [http://youtu.be/hcfmvFIAUF4]
Market: YouTube.
Buy: None. Just a web video.

Committee: Endorse Liberty
Candidates supported: Ron Paul
Candidates opposed: Mitt Romney
Spot: "Ron VS Mitt" -- This super PAC ad touts the campaign contributions received by Paul from active duty military. It also hits Romney for receiving more lobbyist campaign contributions than the rest of the GOP field combined. The ad asks, "Do you trust the troops or the lobbyists?"
Link: [http://youtu.be/WTLET9FMHKI]
Market: South Carolina.
Buy: Undisclosed.

Committee: Democratic National Committee
Candidates opposed: Mitt Romney
Spot: "It's All Still True" -- Jon Huntsman dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Romney. This was after being one of the most anti-Romney candidates in the GOP race. This DNC video puts together all of Huntsman's attacks on Romney over the past few months.
Link: [http://youtu.be/PDovhd34s-g]
Market: YouTube.
Buy: None. Just a web video.

Committee: Winning Our Future
Candidates opposed: Mitt Romney
Spot: "Unelectable" -- The pro-Gingrich super PAC pivots from its Bain attacks to knock Romney as unelectable in this new ad.
Link: [http://youtu.be/6D8wtAbpkQc]
Market: South Carolina.
Buy: Part of a $2+ million ad buy.

Committee: Winning Our Future
Candidates opposed: Mitt Romney
Spot: "Questionable" -- The pro-Gingrich super PAC hits Romney for changing the number of jobs that he claims to have created from 100,000 to tens of thousands in his speeches. The ad goes on to question Romney's business record.
Link: [http://youtu.be/xsyWGzCocLk]
Market: South Carolina.
Buy: Part of a $2+ million ad buy.

Committee: Newt Gingrich for President
Spot: "The Moment" -- The Gingrich campaign tries to capitalize on the standing ovation he received in the Fox News/WSJ debate in South Carolina with this video.
Link: [http://youtu.be/z8lypvEz8Bg]
Market: Unknown.
Buy: Undisclosed.

Committee: Democratic National Committee
Spot: "Still Dodging" -- The DNC puts together this quick video of Romney's many dodges in Monday night's debate. This isn't as good as HuffPost's video.
Link: [http://youtu.be/ypxCZZ82SO8]
Market: YouTube.
Buy: None. Just a web video.

Committee: American Bridge
Spot: "Not Very Much? Romney On $374,000 in Speaking Fees" -- The Dem super PAC cuts a video explaining the total Romney received from speaking fees after he said in a press appearance, "I get some [income] from speaking fees, but not very much." That "not very much" was $374,000 in one year.
Link: [http://youtu.be/N7Z2Grnfiwc]
Market: YouTube.
Buy: None. Just a web video.

TRACKING INDEPENDENT SPENDING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE:

These numbers represent spending by independent groups, like super PACs and non-profits, to support or oppose a particular candidate for the presidency in 2012. Fundrace will update this spending daily to help show which candidates are gaining from the proliferation of independent groups in this coming election.

Newt Gingrich (R), $996,282 to support, $7,967,678 to oppose. (Support: +$14,200, Oppose: +$284,538)
Mitt Romney (R), $1,031,537 to support, $3,221,856 to oppose. (Support: +$101,537, Oppose: +$2,771,115)
Rick Perry (R), $3,964,824 to support, $0 to oppose. (+$166,300)
Ron Paul (R), $3,223,232 to support, $165,339 to oppose. (Support: +$1,903,991, Oppose: +$60)
Jon Huntsman (R), $2,453,204 to support, $0 to oppose.
Rick Santorum (R), $1,582,506 to support, $215,711 to oppose. (Support: +$750,070, Oppose: +$212,683)
Herman Cain (R), $462,217 to support, $0 to oppose.
Barack Obama (D), $18,517 to support, $611,797 to oppose. (+$181,878)
Gary Johnson (R), $518 to support, $0 to oppose.

RECENT INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES

Winning Our Future, $2,571,443 to oppose Mitt Romney for President in South Carolina.
Restore Our Future, $92,075 to oppose Newt Gingrich for President in South Carolina.
Winning Our Future, $52,500 to oppose Mitt Romney for President in South Carolina.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $99,632 to support Suzanne Bonamici for Congress in Oregon's First District.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $99,632 to oppose Rob Cornilles for Congress in Oregon's First District.
Endorse Liberty, $41,977 to support Ron Paul for President.
Revolution PAC, $39,406 to support Ron Paul for President in South Carolina.
Revolution PAC, $1,000 to support Ron Paul for President in Florida.
Restore Our Future, $92,075 to oppose Newt Gingrich for President in South Carolina.
Restore Our Future, $116,956 to oppose Rick Santorum in South Carolina.
Restore Our Future, $5,830 to oppose Rick Santorum in Florida.
Endorse Liberty, $41,045 to support Ron Paul for President.
Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow, $21,600 to oppose Mitt Romney for President in South Carolina.
Strong America Now, $14,200 to support Newt Gingrich for President in South Carolina.
Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama, $52,711 to oppose Barack Obama for President.
Red White And Blue Fund, $131,852 to support Rick Santorum for President in Florida.
Endorse Liberty, $22,461 to oppose Newt Gingrich for President.
Endorse Liberty, $44,923 to support Ron Paul for President.
Endorse Liberty, $55,937 to support Ron Paul for President.
Winning Our Future, $128,968 to oppose Mitt Romney for President in South Carolina.
Endorse Liberty, $1,451,800 to support Ron Paul for President.
Red White And Blue Fund, $618,217 to support Rick Santorum for President in South Carolina.
Progressive Change Campaign Committee, $10,021 to support Elizabeth Warren for Senate in Massachusetts.
Endorse Liberty, $174,616 to support Ron Paul for President.
Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama, $13,534 to oppose Barack Obama for President.
Make Us Great Again, $166,300 to support Rick Perry for President.
DGA Action, $60 to oppose Ron Paul for President.
DGA Action, $694 to oppose Mitt Romney for President.
DGA Action, $261 to oppose Rick Santorum for President.

RECENT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE REGISTRATIONS

Starr Insurance Holdings, New York, N.Y., Treasurer: Howard Smith.
MMC Corp PAC, Overland Park, Kan., Treasurer: David Cimpl.

Send tips, hints, submissions, rumors to HuffPost Fundrace at paulblumenthal@huffingtonpost.com.