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New-Home Sales: Last Year Was The Worst Year For Sales On Record

Housing Prices

By DEREK KRAVITZ   01/26/12 11:07 AM ET   AP

WASHINGTON -- Fewer people bought new homes in December. The decline made 2011 the worst year for new -homes sales on records dating back nearly half a century.

The Commerce Department said Thursday new-home sales fell 2.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 307,000. The pace is less than half the 700,000 that economists say must be sold in a healthy economy.

About 302,000 new homes were sold last year. That's less than the 323,000 sold in 2010, making last year's sales the worst on records dating back to 1963. And it coincides with a report last week that said 2011 was the weakest year for single-family home construction on record.

The median sales prices for new homes dropped in December to $210,300. Builders continued to slash price to stay competitive in the depressed market.

Still, sales of new homes rose in the final quarter of 2011, supporting other signs of a slow turnaround that began at the end of the year.

Sales of previously occupied homes rose in December for a third straight month. Mortgage rates have never been lower. Homebuilders are slightly more hopeful because more people are saying they might consider buying this year. And home construction picked up in the final quarter of last year.

"Although this decline was unexpected, it does not change the story that housing has likely bottomed," said Jennifer H. Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said easier lending requirements, historically low mortgage rates and improved hiring all point to consistent, albeit slow, rises in sales in the coming months.

"A sustained rise in new home sales is imminent," he said. "Homebuilders say so too, and they should know."

Hiring is critical to a housing rebound. The unemployment rate fell in December to its lowest level in nearly three years after the sixth straight month of solid job growth.

Economists caution that housing is a long way from fully recovering. Builders have stopped working on many projects because it's been hard for them to get financing or to compete with cheaper resale homes. For many Americans, buying a home remains too big a risk more than four years after the housing bubble burst.

Though new-home sales represent less than 10 percent of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

A key reason for the dismal 2011 sales is that builders must compete with foreclosures and short sales – when lenders accept less for a house than what is owed on the mortgage

Builders ended 2011 with a third straight year of dismal home construction and the worst on record for single-family home building. But in a hopeful sign, single-family home construction, which makes up 70 percent of the market, increased in each of the last three months.

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WASHINGTON -- Fewer people bought new homes in December. The decline made 2011 the worst year for new -homes sales on records dating back nearly half a century. The Commerce Department said Thursday ...
WASHINGTON -- Fewer people bought new homes in December. The decline made 2011 the worst year for new -homes sales on records dating back nearly half a century. The Commerce Department said Thursday ...
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08:45 AM on 01/29/2012
With such significant existing inventory there is no economic insentive big enough to push those few buyers that can buy to beat a path to a new construction home. Consider that the vast majority of homes available on the market today can be purchase below replacement value. Thus, prior to buying a “new” 2,000 square foot home a qualified buyer can likely find a recently constructed, slighly used home, of 2,500 square foot home with mature landscaping for a similar price.

There are few move-up buyers as people cannot sell their existing home to “move up”. Mortgage qualifications have significanly increased. Add to this the huge shadow inventory, significant under-employment and changes in outlook on the virtures of home-ownership. New home sales have years to go before returning to any form of normalacy.

I do not see deflation, at some point rising rents will push people back to considering home ownership as better, fixed costs, alternative to renting.

Inventory will not clear for years based on the abject failure of the foreclosure system once it was placed under stress. No easy fix on this one other than time. See: http://multifamilyinsight.net/2011/09/07/banks-litigation-and-mortgages/

Here is a blog post about The Moral Hazard of Housing related to the state of home ownership. http://multifamilyinsight.net/2010/10/20/multifamily-opinion-the-moral-hazard-of-housing/
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AlanBannacheck
President of the Deep Thoughts Association (DTA)
06:29 PM on 01/28/2012
Sadly all the new jobs are low wage. Perhaps if it was only 300 dollars a month for a mortgage, then we would see some improvement.
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Pennstategirl
07:28 AM on 01/27/2012
Resale houses had increases in prices here for the last 3 months. Year over year sales are up also. Inventory way down from the high of 12,000 to now less than 4,000 on the market. New home construction will lag until the foreclosure inventory is gone and we don't know when that is because the banks don't know or won't say how much they are holding. Housing is crawling back.
creativ786
independent of the left a centrist for life
10:10 PM on 01/26/2012
romes burning but according the prez everything is turning around and it's peachy out here..
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KarmaPatrol
Fair and balanced and sugar-free
08:24 PM on 01/26/2012
The homebuilders need to respond to the demands of the a consumer (Gen X, Y, etc...), especially with new technology available for housing and changing tastes. Baby Boomers had their say but they are no longer in the driver's seat in terms of what young families want.

May need to be some deregulation at the local level too.
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4eva
.-.. --- ...- . --..-- / -. --- - / .... .- - .
08:14 PM on 01/26/2012
Why are we still building homes when there is a glut of homes on the market?
And why are we still building homes in unsustainable far out squiggly street exburbs?

Such a waste of capital.
10:08 PM on 01/26/2012
You can thank us construction guys for driving prices down. We'll continue to do so. ;)
04:51 PM on 01/26/2012
Funny, Krugman just penned an article where he was more positive on the economy partially based on increasing home building. I roundly poo pooed his naivety and these data support the contention that housing will continue to lag and will not provide a boost.
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Mark Cormier Arizona
√2012=∑(Hope)4(Change)
04:01 PM on 01/26/2012
Well according to Obama the other night, I thought housing and the economy were "back".
Guess not......lets see him spin this one.
04:43 PM on 01/26/2012
He doesn't have to spin it.. Just another fact he will ignore and of course the MSM will not question him about it.
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aaronrossi
governments should be afraid of their people
03:21 PM on 01/26/2012
why are we even building new homes???
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4everright
My heart went boom
04:26 PM on 01/26/2012
because there is a demand for new homes
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ILoveGreatDanes
When the going gets tough, the tough take a nap.
04:47 PM on 01/26/2012
What planet are you living on? There are FOR SALE signs on existing homes everywhere where I live. They sit empty for months and eventually become the target of vandalism.
03:01 PM on 01/26/2012
I built a brand new home back in 1998 the final cost after a few upgrades was just under $400,000 In 2000 we spent another $40,000 for a custom in ground pool, not to mention $18,000 for landscaping, an additional $32,000 to finish the basement, and last but not least the cost for all custom window treatments etc. My home in today's market is worth $385,000

In today's Real Estate market one really needs to think twice about the final total costs of building a brand new home. As when all is said and done, that brand new home may be worth less then it actually cost you to have it built, in the event you might need to sell it within a 2 to 3 year period of time.
04:36 PM on 01/26/2012
lol.

Look.... if you spent 400k on a house, you didn't build anything. You bought a retail product as an end user. And you paid far too much for it.

And I doubt you could find a buyer for at even half of what you paid for it.
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ILoveGreatDanes
When the going gets tough, the tough take a nap.
04:52 PM on 01/26/2012
It depends on where bdzdean lives. Maybe where he/she lives, $400,000 is an average cost for a home. As for me and my husband, we are underwater on a home which needs a new roof, a new foundation, and numerous other repairs. We're going to cut bait, walk away, live with bad credit for a while, and build our own nontraditional home. Forget paying 30 years for a bunch of sticks and bricks. That's a waste of money. And for what? We bought an acre lot for $14K cash, and we're building us a tent/cabin combo for $5 K cash. No debt, no interest.
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4everright
My heart went boom
02:45 PM on 01/26/2012
Another Obama accomplishment. I guess he was missing the afternoon they discussed economics at the community organizing school.
04:40 PM on 01/26/2012
But, but, but... It's Bush's fault!
02:57 PM on 01/27/2012
That is partially true... it started with Nixon and Clinton bowed to the republican congress and Bush and Greenspan spiked the economy with credit for housing so he could get elected. But really all were pawns of the very wealthy and the bankers with their detached salaries and bounses from actual performance.
12:55 PM on 01/26/2012
LOL... Let me guess bobbleheads. Bush's fault?!?
04:47 PM on 01/26/2012
Actually it's more of Greenspan's fault. He championed the exploding mortgages and fueled speculation with easy money. Yes Bush touted the "ownership society" but all Presidents support home purchases.
12:33 PM on 01/26/2012
This is what happens when you overbuild to the point where you have 25 million excess empty housing units.

Let prices crater and buy a house later.