Japan's Population Decline: Estimate Shows One-Third Shrink By 2060

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's rapid aging means the national population of 128 million will shrink by one-third by 2060 and seniors will account for 40 percent of people, placing a greater burden on the shrinking work force population to support the social security and tax systems.

The population estimate released Monday by the Health and Welfare Ministry paints a grim future.

In year 2060, Japan will have 87 million people. The number of people 65 or older will nearly double to 40 percent, while the national work force of people between ages 15 and 65 will shrink to about half of the total population, according to the estimate, made by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

The total fertility rate, or the expected number of children born per woman during lifetime, in 2060 is estimated at 1.35, down from 1.39 in 2010 — well below more than 2 needed to keep the country's population from declining. But the average Japanese will continue to live longer. The average life expectancy for 2060 is projected at 90.93 for women, up from 86.39 in 2010, and 84.19 years for men, up from 79.64 years.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has pledged to push for social security and tax reforms this year. A bill he promised to submit by the end of March would raise the 5 percent sales tax in two stages to 8 percent in 2014 and 10 percent by 2015, although opposition lawmakers and the public pose challenges to its approval.

Experts say that Japan's population will keep losing 1 million every year in coming decades and the country urgently needs to overhaul its social security and tax system to reflect the demographic shift.

"Pension programs, employment and labor policy and social security system in this country is not designed to reflect such rapidly progressing population decline or aging," Noriko Tsuya, a demography expert at Keio University, said on public broadcaster NHK. "The government needs to urgently revise the system and implement new measures based on the estimate."

Comments

[riverhouse]

08:06 PM on 02/01/2012

I hope the disappearing are all Republicans.

[Epilef2000]

04:19 PM on 02/01/2012

Economists are constantly warning against the declining population, and its actually a good thing. Less pressure on and demand on electricity, food, roads, etc. . . sure, our economic system is dependent on an infinite growth and consumption, as opposed to conservation and providing a good standard of living (which is not only material good but also time to spend with family and friends etc.)

[usersuz]

10:20 AM on 02/02/2012

Agreed. Once Japan gets over this hump, it will have full employment and a population proportionate to its resources. We need to remember this every time somebody sets off a siren on our U.S. population bulge. We will be in a better situation than countries in, say, the Mideast, where social policy is to breed out to the max and have half the population be unemployed 20-year-olds. Economists should be working on plans that will ease the transition instead of recommending we all acquire more people so labor costs can go down. They need to think it through again.

[Mondayboy]

02:15 PM on 02/01/2012

That is good news

[BurritoT]

02:53 AM on 02/01/2012

The entire world should follow suit and shrink by 1/3/. All I hear from capitalists is have more children, make more things, grow grow grow! That is not the way forward imo.

[schatsie]

10:24 PM on 01/31/2012

Well that is 50 years down the road and I for one am sick of these people who guesstimate the future and scarify people about retirement. It is also very unclear about what those ages mean, do they mean if you are born in 2010 your life expectancy is whatever..... What is the current average age of death and how has that changed over the last 50 years, the last 40 years, the last 20 years.... All we need is a return of the black plague and all our population worries will be abated...

[Helgacita]

05:24 PM on 01/31/2012

A shrinking population is not a bad thing in this crowded world

www.hewdge.com

[Boston 019]

11:28 AM on 01/31/2012

Wow, so Social Security is really a giant pyramid scheme. Who would have thought?

[Progressneeded]

10:51 AM on 01/31/2012

The problem is that in a world that needs a reduction in population, we keep working on growth economies. If the human race does not figure out a way to reduce its numbers through educating and empowering its women, we will continue to have more humans than Earth can eventually support!

[Gadgetman]

03:44 AM on 01/31/2012

Let's see if they can export that skill to China.

[Staxx]

12:27 AM on 01/31/2012

Nature have it's way of taking care of itself. No one mentions Japan's overpopulation because it's a wealthy nation, but overcrowding combined with social pressures and rigidity of the society will have an effect no doubt. The most sexually crazed creatures on earth (and yes, that include Obonobos) are 16 to 19 year old humans, yet in Japan 36% males and 59% females of this demographic say they are not interested in sex. Something I can't even wrap my head around, you all know what most American teens of that age will do for sex.

[Jill in NYC]

07:26 PM on 01/30/2012

Oh wow, maybe this is one reason their population is going into such a drastic decline:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/30/japan-population-decline-youth-no-sex_n_1242014.html

What is it, something in their water??

[reformtxcs]

06:25 PM on 01/30/2012

Fret not Japan - America will gladly send you a non-Japanese speaking workforce. Please have their welfare, free education, subsidized housing, and start printing in Spanish......Illegals to the resuce after all they'll do the jobs that a shrinking workforce can't do........bahahahahaha

[Ourstorian]

09:04 AM on 01/31/2012

I'm laughing at you too. Bigots like you are always good for a guffaw.

[Boston 019]

11:26 AM on 01/31/2012

Actually Japan allows very little immigration.

[trailerguy]

12:10 PM on 01/31/2012

japan has started to let in some chinese, koreans and phlilpinos, approx a million, I predected that japan will import aleast ten million people ove the next tewnty years

[JScott]

06:10 PM on 01/30/2012

Might not be a bad thing, Maybe more japanese could live in single family homes of 1600 sf and 6000 sf lots and a 2 car garage instead of cramped apartments and still have lotsa wilderness left.

[antipodal2u]

05:09 PM on 01/30/2012

Thanks to the reactor meltdown(s)?

[Boston 019]

11:27 AM on 01/31/2012

No, in ten years when another 1/3 goes, those will be from the meltdowns.

[antipodal2u]

11:58 AM on 01/31/2012

10 months, 10 years, irrelevent in the big picture

[Scott Bryan Kanner]

04:47 PM on 01/30/2012

I'd say 1/3 is rather conservative since the fallout from their nuclear accident might affect their fertility rates