Ron Paul Florida Primary 2012 Outlook

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is already looking beyond Florida's primary election going into Tuesday's contest.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that the Texas libertarian will hold a "campaign call to arms" rally in the Silver State on Tuesday. Nevada's Republican caucus will take place next Saturday on February 4.

Even though he hasn't placed first in any of the primary contests already held this election season, there are no signs that Paul plans to abandon his pursuit of the White House anytime soon.

"We're going to stay in and see what comes of it," he said during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union" over the weekend. "There have been a lot of ups and downs so maybe there will be some downs and we will be able to pick up the pieces."

Paul conveyed a sense of optimism about his chances of coming out on top in Maine's upcoming Republican caucus.

The Polls

HuffPost's Mark Blumenthal reports:

Six new polls released late Sunday or Monday found that Mitt Romney's lead over Newt Gingrich ranges from five to 20 percentage points.

Some of the largest margins came from four polls that reached voters over both landline and mobile phones, including three surveys released on Monday.

...

Voter uncertainty, a hallmark of the Republican primary campaign for months, remains a potential factor in the outcome of the Florida contest. The latest Quinnipiac survey finds that more than a quarter of the likely Republican primary voters in that state either are completely undecided (7 percent) or say they might still change their minds about the candidate they are supporting (24 percent of those with a preference).

Florida election officials reported on Monday that 591,666 votes had already been cast in early and absentee voting, a number that would represent roughly 30 percent of the votes cast in the state's 2008 Republican primary. Needless to say, those who have already cast ballots can no longer change their minds.

Check out the slideshow below for more on the Paul campaign.

 

 

Comments

[Minister Karl]

05:20 AM on 02/01/2012

Even following this from South Africa, it is very clear that Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate of hope for Americans and the world at large, since Kenedy. The Freemason agendas, so called New World Order, are going full steam as planned in the past 200 years. Even the US and UN tyrannic laws filtered down to South Africa, we have our police force militarised, GMO foods everywhere to poison us, land taken away from productive farmers without compensation. Are we following the US, definately. Taxes and prices soar, unemployment record highs.... federal banks feeding the richest of the rich.... Whats different? Ron Paul sincere decent man, he does not bow down to the beast power (read your bible) American voters YOU have in your hands to change this evil thats in power since Kennedy. Once you are finding yourself in a FEMA camp, IT will be too late. As a african i beg the citizens of the USA to vote Ron Paul, else you will perish, be enslaved in the system, youll beg for food, water and alectricity.. think about it. Min K Jung

[obi1nekinobi]

05:34 PM on 01/31/2012

I love looking at the poll charts. The establishment canidates (romney, gingrich, santorum) graphs go up and down in sporadic motion. Yet, Ron Pauls line, though a little lower, is surely and steadily increasing at a constant rate. Thats what I call stability of followers.

Ron Paul 2012

[reciprocat]

11:19 AM on 02/03/2012

Yeah...his poll numbers go up...up to 11.7 percent but his actual votes go down...a take of 7%.

[keith nolan]

04:53 PM on 01/31/2012

Ron Paul Revolution! Thanks for nothing Huffington Post, get off the cross we need the lumber!

[myth1958]

04:00 PM on 01/31/2012

His choice of words ("a call to arms") is unfortunate - but what else so aptly describes this guy? He's perhaps the least effective congressman in history - with only one bill passed (for a library in Texas) out of 600+ submitted in 30 years. But he has managed to vote against important things, like a Congressional Medal of Honor for Rosa Parks. I think Texans aren't getting their money's worth out of him. Unless they REALLY love a US Representative who embodies the whole Alamo, 'go down in flames' thingy. Now he's merely laying the groundwork for a 'Rand Paul 2016' run at higher office, so losing everywhere he goes doesn't matter much. It's all about media time - something else he has railed against, too. "A call to insignificance" is more like it.

[obi1nekinobi]

04:33 PM on 01/31/2012

National polls show that 80 percent of americans are dissatisfied with congress. The simple fact that Ron Paul was so unpopular in congress I feel gives him credibility. Its tough to get things passed in congress when you aren't taking money from lobbyist like everyone else on capitol hill is.

"important things like a congressional medal of honor for Rosa Parks" --- haha, since when should congress be giving out medals?? let some other organization do that... oh wait, plenty do. But HE DID vote against THE PATRIOT ACT and NDAA, how many other congressman did that? How many other congressman were able to establish a partial audit of the federal reserve?

[johnny strike]

05:04 PM on 01/31/2012

excellent post obi1nekinobi

[myth1958]

08:53 PM on 01/31/2012

obi1nekinobi: We all have a right to be dissatisfied with Congress 2011: they dithered away while the nation was suffering with unemployment, a debt crisis and issues abroad. It's time for all voters to assess whether their representatives actually accomplish anything - or are just a part of the problem.
As for Rosa Parks and other Congressional Medal of Honor winners: they are icons - examples for us like soldiers who get Purple Hearts, Gold and Silver Stars. We don't have to spend the money recognizing them, but we do because they stood up and changed history when nobody else would do it. We need people to keep stepping up in danger so some of them can save our lives from a peril unknown to us now.
I don't dig Ron Paul because of his agenda - gutting and reversing decades of progress at the altar of low taxes (and Ayn Rand). Saving money, creating more homeless; more starving people without assistance; a breakdown of roads and bridges and disaster recovery because the states would be overwhelmed. Unchecked pollution. A few of the catastrophic visions of a Ron Paul presidency.

[stloon2]

03:55 PM on 01/31/2012

Ron Paul is the only real choice. The GOP is and the Republican voters are pathetic.

[ausscyn]

02:23 PM on 01/31/2012

We can't wait to see you in Nevada, Ron! We're working so hard on the Feb. 4th caucus. Nevada republicans - VOTE for RON PAUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[reciprocat]

04:07 PM on 01/31/2012

The most recent polling has Paul at 13%. but I am sure that's just the media trying to keep him down right?

Good luck against those elephants.

[obi1nekinobi]

04:40 PM on 01/31/2012

I'm guessing your citing "the Las-Vegas Review" poll.... that was taken in MID-DECEMBER .... And even if he still does have a minority of the vote, that wouldn't stop any of his followers from voting for him because they vote for his cause and his ideas... they don't treat the political system like a football game the way the media does.

[dawniscoming]

12:12 PM on 01/31/2012

I just want to point out that Ron Paul focuses on caucus states bcuz those delegates can vote for WHOEVER they want at the Convention. They are not bound by the popular vote like primary states.
To become a delegate for your district you have to stay after the voting and apply. Being a delegate is very time consuming and expensive. Guess whose supporters do that?
Yep, Ron Paul supporters do just like they drive hours just to pay to cast a vote in their state's straw poll.
You think Santorum or Mittens won Iowa? They did not. Ron Paul won Iowa in the only way that matters, the delegates.
If Ron Paul picks up almost every delegate from the caucus states AND continues to come in the top 3 in primary states (not Florida cuz it's winner take all) and wins Texas, which he will and wins California he would have enough delegates to win the nomination.
Also, if Newt & Mittens keep taking turns winning states and it causes a brokered convention then again Ron Paul wins bcuz at a brokered conventions ALL delegates are released to vote for their own choice.
This is what the media isn't telling you.

[reciprocat]

12:59 PM on 01/31/2012

What fantasy world do you live in?

Mittens, Newt and Santorum all have sufficient people to caucus for them. Actually, everybody does/did. Sheesh
The "media" has been talking about a brokered convention for more than a week now.
Paul polls just as poorly in Texas as he does anywhere else so far.
And...the real bad news for your asinine scenarios: both Texas and California are winner take all states. which means 0 delegates for Paul even if he DOUBLES his average popular or delegate vote wins so far.

He's toast Dawn. I am not stalking you but this is the second time (at least) I've seen you posting these bad delegate calculations. I still wonder why your fellow paullers don't correct you.

Good luck against those elephants.

[dawniscoming]

01:17 PM on 01/31/2012

Show me a Texas poll since Perry dropped out. I just looked and can't find one.

[dawniscoming]

01:35 PM on 01/31/2012

I also just exhaustively searched for a recent CA poll and the most recent one I can find is from the end of last year when there were still 8 candidates running.
You are claiming polls exist please link them bcuz at this point I am confident they don't exist.
I am basing my comment on the Texas and CA straw polls which Ron Paul won by a landslide and can easily be googled.
I don't appreciate being insulted by someone willing to lie in their own post.
Show me the polls you claim exist.

[reciprocat]

12:10 PM on 01/31/2012

Can a Pauller do me a favor?

I notice frequently paullers posting that Newt and Santorum are not on the ballot in "certain" states. I was wondering if someone could link me to where you all get this information?

Everyone is welcome to answer...even if the answer is "I read it from another Pauller on HuffPo."

[GuyCybershy]

12:35 PM on 01/31/2012

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/11352361-lets-be-honest-ron-paul-no-way-gingrich-and-santorum-can-win-the-gop

[reciprocat]

01:33 PM on 01/31/2012

Did you ever think to actually check to see if the numbers stated in this article are correct?

[FastPlastic]

01:25 PM on 01/31/2012

I have yet to find a full list. But I have found a few so far.

I'm sure you are probably aware of Virginia(big lawsuit) Just Paul and Romney with no write-ins.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70834.html

Newts also not on the Missouri ballot.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57330313-503544/newt-gingrich-fails-to-get-on-missouri-ballot/

Santorum isn't on the DC ballot
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/santorum-doesnt-file-for-dc-ballot-109647.html

I did a quick google search that can be found below

"(Insert candidate name) isn't on (insert state name) ballot."

Sometimes you can leave out the state name and pick up a few of the new news articles posted.

[reciprocat]

01:44 PM on 01/31/2012

Let me help you out to what you will eventually find out if you ever figure out to do the search correctly: IT'S JUST 2 STATES FOR NEWT AND 2 STATES FOR SANTORUM WHERE THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT...ADDING UP TO ABOUT 100 DELEGATES EACH. THAT'S ALL.

So this thing where your fellow Paullers say Newt and Santorum are mathematically out of the race because they can't get on 564 ballots...is patently b.s., right?

Please do the right thing! Tell them! When you see them posting and reposting that absurdity be the one to do the right thing and just tell them. I will have a lot of respect for Paullers if I see someone do that.

[WinterM]

11:58 AM on 01/31/2012

Has it occurred to the sheeple that pay attention to politically backed news networks who are payed to play more to one candidate or another that just about every news network in this great country is marginalizing and pushing the one true patriot who's going for the nomination straight out of the picture? You allow suits, you get suits, is what I say here.

[Vicki Flaherty]

11:47 AM on 01/31/2012

Paul is smart to skip Florida, since he seems to be a "one note singer". I'm all for saving and up holding our Constitution,it has been slowly chipped away. And War is just plain nasty, no longer benefits our Country, just devastates financially.

But when you ask Paul about Health Care, the real war of this Country, his answers make me choke. Go to Charities, Church's and build rapport with Health Care Professionals? If you have no money that's laughable, but sad and serious as well. No Money, No Helpy, and that's it. His other remedies on important issues, lack substance.
Florida is a State that depends on all social programs for assistance, with a large Senior population of fixed incomes and working poor. Yes, the cost of living is low, but so are the wages and available work that one can build any future. Working at Disney World isn't manys career choice.
However, Florida holds many Billionaires as well, and that 1% population will love Romey and Newt, because "it's There Money", and even though a "Minimum Wage Worker" made it for them, ( minimum wage is $7.50 in Fl.) it's not leaving there pockets !!!
Greed runs high in Florida, just visit some area's and see for yourself. It has been a two class State for years, but the lower class is also concerned for tomorrow and losing that statis. Paul has no real solutions on those issues.

[reciprocat]

12:12 PM on 01/31/2012

Actually Paul has a solution: Church charities are for the poor. There.

[tlangrehr]

04:21 PM on 01/31/2012

Ron Paul does have a solution. Nearly everyone could afford health care before the government got so involved and because the care was relatively affordable, those who didn't have it could be helped by their doctors and communities. He plans to make that a reality again by doing things such as to undo regulation that eliminates competition among insurance and service providers, undo regulation that benefits drug companies at the consumer's expense, allow all health care costs to be fully deducted from taxes and introduce ways to fix the overly-litigious system.

The end result is that everyone has care and as a result of the doctor's reduced cost of doing business, we have better care because doctors can afford to see fewer patients, because they are keeping more money in their pockets per patient. This also provides more room for business for those considering the medical field (a current concern for many), which also creates more jobs.

[stloon2]

04:14 PM on 01/31/2012

To say that he "other remedies on important issues, lack substance" says to me you haven't really listened or don't understand. And I'm not interested in wasting my time with you on it because nearly your whole post screams ignorant. This is why it's been such a sloooow upward climb for Ron Paul.

[Vicki Flaherty]

01:39 AM on 02/01/2012

he's finished, and one doesn't have tobe a genious to figure that out!

[Jzz Lvr]

10:56 AM on 01/31/2012

I think it's RIDICULOUS that the media is attempting to convince people that all of Ron Paul's support is found on the internet as if we're all mega bites and not people. How WRONG you are... We're out on the streets daily, along with everyone else who doesn't get onto the internet to speak their minds. Dr. Paul has a MUCH LARGER support system than the media wants you to believe. They WANT to force Romeny & Gingrich down your throat...

[keinangst]

11:22 AM on 01/31/2012

Agreed.

[miket23]

11:28 AM on 01/31/2012

It's beyond ridiculous and the media elites know exactly why he generates so much support online. They refuse to cover him as a serious candidate, marginalizing and ignoring him at any chance they get. So then Paul's supporters have no other option but to spread the message online. It's out of necessity, not choice. Furthermore, as you allude, these are real people, not some automatons, and they are creating one of the greatest grassroots movements this country has witnessed in over a generation. It's a phenomenal story and movement.

[Jzz Lvr]

10:48 AM on 01/31/2012

This news source is USELESS.... It's completely BIAS and LOADED WITH PROPAGANDA.... I HIGHLY SUGGEST that Americans NO LONGER put their trust in MSM ..... This article in deliberate and very convoluted.

[obi1nekinobi]

05:17 PM on 01/31/2012

I hate it, its so tough to get unslanted info now days. But I guess this has been going on forever.

Ben Franklin said, "He who gets all his information from newspapers knows nothing."

[jacloner1]

10:48 AM on 01/31/2012

I will vote for Ron Paul whichever party he represents, because he represents the Constitution and the people,,,,,,,,,the only one of the candidates to do so.....

[den1953]

10:30 AM on 01/31/2012

Time to go third party Dr Paul the Republican establishment just aren't into you no help from them will never let you compete with Romney or Gingrich!

[obi1nekinobi]

05:21 PM on 01/31/2012

Most people are following this trend. Isn't it something like 40% of people are registered independent?? Its so easy to see the bias from both parties, who would want to be a part of it?

[Randy Halloway]

10:13 AM on 01/31/2012

While the other candidates in Florida fighting for 50 delegates (winner take all), Ron Paul is on the road gathering delegates.

Mathematically, only Ron Paul and Romney even have a chance at the nomination.

Wait until Romney has to go up against Ron Paul in a one-on-one in a debate, now that would be hilarious.

Ron Paul for Liberty

[marksstc]

10:38 AM on 01/31/2012

If/when it gets down to Romney and Paul as the final two candidates, Mitt and the GOP and the media will pretend Paul doesn't exist. No more debates. No more coverage of Paul.

[tika]

11:01 AM on 01/31/2012

I agree. If that scenario did take place. They would just act like Romney won and make Paul visually invisible on TV and on their websites.

[Stephen McAbee]

11:31 AM on 01/31/2012

The resulting low turn outs could be very beneficial to Paul.