OH-2012 President: 49% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R) (PPP 1/28-29)

Public Policy Polling (D)
1/28-29/12; 820 likely voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
PPP release

Ohio

2012 President
51% Obama (D), 39% Gingrich (R)
48% Obama (D), 38% Paul (R)
49% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R)
48% Obama (D), 42% Santorum (R)

Obama Job Approval
48% Approve, 48% Disapprove

Favorable / Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich: 25 / 59
Ron Paul: 27 / 57
Mitt Romney: 28 / 56
Rick Santorum: 35 / 48

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[dpearl]

09:46 AM on 02/02/2012

Unemployment data come out tomorrow so I thought I would point out a data issue with this particular release. People often look to the report in February with anticipation because they do not have faith in seasonal adjustment methods and it is the first post-Christmas season report. This is a mistake. The report tomorrow is the once-per-decade time when they incorporate the final 2010 census counts and that will affect population and labor force numbers (this doesn't affect the establishment survey). For example, the Hispanic population count in the 2010 census turned out to be about 1.9% higher than the estimates the census was using based on birth and death certificates, immigration data, and the like. If I understand the system, that means the Household survey data tomorrow for Hispanics will appear to show an artificial 1.9% change even if everything stood still. Watch out for political commentators tomorrow who make statements about how many Hispanics are entering or leaving the job market.

I predict this will most affect the political blogosphere down the road when the unemployment data are released on the state level. There are a number of specific states where estimates, especially for Hispanics, were very different from the actual census counts. Arizona will be the big example at that time. The census occurred right when the restrictive immigration law was passed in that state. While Hispanics were underestimated by 1.9% nationally - they were overestimated by 8.7% in Arizona.

[StatsNo1fan]

12:08 PM on 02/02/2012

Ah, I was gonna ask if you have an opinion on the labor report tomorrow. ADP showed 150K increase in private sector jobs. Gallup's employment numbers are the lowest since summer, but job creation index is highest in over two years. So, a bit of a conflict there.

!.9% of Hispanics is about 0.3% of total US population. I think previous reports I saw had Hispanics at about 15% of US total. So you do think this once in a decade adjustment makes US population 0.3% larger than the previous numbers which were used to calculate the labor force?

[dpearl]

02:46 PM on 02/02/2012

Regarding the Gallup unemployment data - keep in mind that the BLS Household survey is conducted the week of the 19th of the month so you need to focus on that week for comparison.
Regarding the population estimates - they were actually pretty close to census values for the U.S. as a whole. What I wanted to focus on was that data for Hispanics (the most volatile population to count) and for individual states have some major differences so interpretation of trends at that scale will be difficult. Discussions of how specific states fare compared to the country as a whole is always fodder for political debate when advocates or opponents of the policies of particular Governors are concerned.

I wrote the post because I was looking at data for the states at www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/01/12/state-population-estimates-and-census-2010-counts-did-they-match/ and for Hispanics at www.pewhispanic.org/2011/03/15/appendix-3/ and felt there might be bogus political claims coming down the pike because of the BLS census adjustments.

[Xenobion]

04:14 AM on 02/02/2012

I'll be sure to put my money in Intrade for future Mitt Romney, the guy just hasn't germinated past the nomination! Wow how could I forget such a key element!

[PunchingDonkey]

08:52 PM on 02/01/2012

The Romneybots are sounding very much like Kerry supporters from '04. Their candidate is consistently behind in the polls "but the undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent!!!!"

How did that work out, by the way?

[theocrat]

08:46 PM on 02/01/2012

Santorum does better than Romney in Ohio?

[Symanski]

01:28 PM on 02/02/2012

I can actually believe that result. One, Santorum has remained largely above the fray with Romney and Gingrich going nuclear on each other. Two, Santorum is from neighboring Pennsylvania. Three, Santorum is the only candidate who consistently champions redoubling our manufacturing efforts with things like a 0% repatriation tax rate. And finally, I think Santorum has an economic populism streak making him weary of Wall Street, which plays well in a state like Ohio. However, it's all rather academic, as Santorum is not going to be the nominee, but he's doing a pretty good job auditioning for a possible Romney administration position, should Romney win.

[PunchingDonkey]

08:42 PM on 02/01/2012

Mitt has this one in the bag!

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

06:12 PM on 02/01/2012

Here you go Stats, Gallup must be way out of touch. Here are the real numbers.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/02/01/mitt-romney-s-unfavorable-ratings-have-been-rising-since-iowa.html

[stillow1]

08:20 PM on 02/01/2012

As Romney becomes more of a national candidate now and less of just a relatively little known name within the GOP, his fave ratings will change to reflect the pure partisan divide i nthe nation. "Very" few national poiticans are able to sustain fave ratings above 50. Even Obama now has unfave ratings up around 50 in many polls...he's running about even with fave/unfave which is a substancial decline from wher ehe used to be.

As romney becomes more national, the divide i nthe country will naturally lower his faves and raise his faves from where they were. When you cite a poll with 45 unfave, I think that is totally expected since 45% of the country will dislike just about anyone with an R next to their name...and vice versa....

After the primary is over and Mitt is the nominee, one can expect his fave/unfave ratings to pretty much adjust to about where Obama's is, which is roughly even...various polls will of course be more or less friendly, but the overall average will be about even. Example the last RV poll of O's faves was done by CBS a couple weeks ago and O's ratings was 38 favorable and 45 unfavorable.

It just goes with being a national figure now...............

[PunchingDonkey]

08:43 PM on 02/01/2012

Sure, Mitt's just a corner store retail politician right now. Wait until he becomes nationally known. The voters will love him!

[alanrsnipes]

03:28 PM on 02/01/2012

The problem with the stats, stillow, fm argument is that since the pollster is a democrat his findings are wrong. If his findings are in error, it isn't because he's a democrat but because there might have been something wrong in their polling method. Their track record historically is good. They admit they had a problem in Florida but were right about the general election in Florida in 2008.
Since they show Obama getting only 77% of the black vote in Ohio, Obama has room to grow.
Nationwide in 2008, Obama received 43% of the white vote and won easily.

[stillow1]

03:41 PM on 02/01/2012

This is not 2008...this is 2012. In 2008 PPP was not being funded by SEIU and the Kos. Things have changed. the fact is they blew IA, NH and now FL...they are among the worst so far in this season's primary polling in terms of accuracy on Romney, etc. I have no idea what the reason is...wheathe rit be bias, flawed methodology or whatever...the fact is they are doing pretty poorly right now...and pollsters like Q are finding much differen results than PPP is.

To pint entirely to past performance as an indicator of future performance is not a very strong argument to make....the Coboyws used to dominate in past performance and now they blow!

I make no claim to what it is, but soemthing is defintiely up with PPP polls right now.

[teron678]

12:07 AM on 02/02/2012

Lies!!! Only race they got wrong/ understated Mitt support was FL so far ... they were close to accurate on the rest ..

[stillow1]

02:49 PM on 02/01/2012

As to this specific poll........really only two pollsters have polled this race in recent months, PPP and Q....first # is mot recent going to the oldest.

PPP - O+7, O+9, Tie, O+2, O+4, O+6, O+2
Q - O+2, R+1, O+3, O+4, O+2, O+4

Q is also using samples that are about twice as large as the sample sizes PPP is using. Example this PPP poll is 820RV, Q's poll two weeks ago was 1,610RV. Q's high watermark for Obama is O+4, PPP's is O+9....as far as high watermakr for actual percentage of vote PPP's for Obama is 50, Q's is 45.

We have two pollsters showing tow pretty different things....Q is using much larger sample sizes and PPP's recent poor accuracy in Romney realted polling leads me to beleive that Q might be the better source for accuracy here. Just my opinion though.....

[stillow1]

02:55 PM on 02/01/2012

In addition, no one has won OH by more than 6 points since 1988...So PPP's O+9 also leads me to beleive that Q is probably much more accurate here than PPP is.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:47 PM on 02/01/2012

Here is the nuclear option.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallup-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881

[StatsNo1fan]

04:24 PM on 02/01/2012

Guess the above post will remain unchallenged..

[runrunrun4fun]

04:34 PM on 02/01/2012

Ridiculous. Approval numbers, I say again, do not translate into whether someone will vote or not, or vote for a candidate or not. It is one indicator, of many.

[StatsNo1fan]

04:43 PM on 02/01/2012

Can you cite some support for this believe? Because I can back up the opposite with historical evidence, as well as opinions of the best regarded authorities on this subject.

[Field Marshall]

02:41 PM on 02/01/2012

If you think Obama will get 45% of the white vote in Ohio, than I have a bridge to sell you.

[Symanski]

02:45 PM on 02/01/2012

And if you think he's only getting 77% of the black vote in Ohio, I have another one to sell you.

[Kisha Green]

06:52 PM on 02/02/2012

Rofl! That comeback was genius!

[Lat1]

02:46 PM on 02/01/2012

Because Mitt Romney is so appealing to white working class voters how FM?

[Symanski]

03:44 PM on 02/01/2012

Because the WWC voters clearly resonate with a guy who exclaims "corporations are people my friend!" ? That's my best guess. It's a winning November message to win blue collar voters in the rust belt! LOL

But in all seriousness, that auto bailout is looking pretty good politically right about now. What state is #1 in the manufacturing of auto parts? It's Ohio. And they are #2 in auto assembly. Would you rather be the guy who helped save that industry? Or the guy who wrote, "Let Detroit go bankrupt." http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/opinion/19romney.html http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/01/how-obama-plans-to-win-ohio/?iid=SF_F_Lead

There's no gay marriage vote in 2004 to bring out the zealots in rural Ohio to vote. What's Romney's strategy to win in Ohio? Tout his "let them go bankrupt" strategy? Or will he side with Kasich on the union busting? Or will he do some bit about ObamaCare pretending he had no such plan in Massachusetts. Why, his political options in Ohio are limitless!

[Rocketsfan]

07:28 PM on 02/01/2012

Symanski your argument is flawed.

The Automotive areas of Ohio are primarily the Northern Shore, which are already strongly blue. Doubt that one issue will change the statewide race when the President has a 42% job approval according to Gallup today.

Additionally, you are claiming that the gay marriage vote was the reason Bush took Ohio? Seriously!

Ohio has proven the meme that the State Issues help a candidate is false. Case in point, in 2010 the GOP swept the state elections, however Issue 2 which repealed SB5 still passed 53-44 despite the robust GOP turnout.

In Ohio, the issues do not determine any other vote.

Likewise Ohio's economy is still strongly farmland. The estate tax is effectively a farm killer. I think that alone would balance any offset of the automotive bailouts especially since the Ohio farmland stretches the entire state and reaches many many more communities.

So good luck getting the Honda employees in Marysville to buy off on your bailout of GM and Chrysler are good for Ohio idea.

[stillow1]

02:20 PM on 02/01/2012

I feel compelled to note that PPP's polling accuracy on Romney so far is pretty bad.

In IA PPP's final poll had him at 19, Romney actually got 25....everyone else i nthe last round of polls was closer to the actual than PPP was.

In NH PPP's final poll had him at 35, actual was 39....again, everyone else i nthe final round of polls in that race was closer to the actual than PPP was.

In FL PPP's final poll had him at 39, actual was 46. again, everyone else (except one, insider adv) in the final round was closer to the actual than PPP was.

The only one out of the four so far they were able to get right was SC....and one has to wonder if they got that one right because they liked the result they were seeing. So they had no problem putting out the right numbers.

Wheather they are underpolling Romney's strength in these states is intentional or not I will leave to your imagination. But thus far their track record on polling Romney is pretty bad! So any PPP poll right now with Romney in it shoudl have an * next to it until their performance improves.

[Lat1]

02:26 PM on 02/01/2012

LMAO! Stillow, thats beyond lame even for you.

[stillow1]

02:30 PM on 02/01/2012

I realize actual data is inconveneint at times........the fact is they are routinely underpolling Romney's performance...........it is what it is....pretty much every pollster right now is outperforming them on Romney's election results.............data, whattyda gonna do, it can be your best freind or worst enemy!

[Symanski]

01:55 PM on 02/01/2012

It's all about Ohio.

Obama could lose each of the following states: NV (6), CO (9), IN (11), VA (13), NC (15), FL (29), NH (4), and NE-2 (1) and still get to 271 EVs by holding NM, IA, and OH. Given that the economies of the upper midwest have been improving, and Obama can claim credit for that with the successful auto bailout, it's a steep uphill for whoever the GOP nominates.

[teron678]

02:06 PM on 02/01/2012

This is what I have been telling the Mittb0ts for months now ... Obama will just have to win the Kerry states (-NH & +IA) and win 2-3 other swing states ...

The GOP has a steep hill to climb ... they will be competing for 2 big sates that were not too recently fly over red states (NC & VA).

[StatsNo1fan]

02:28 PM on 02/01/2012

Out of the states that report voter registration by party (I believe there are 28 of those), Iowa reported the biggest swing from Dems to GOP from Nov 2008 to date. Dems had a huge advantage in 08 and now it's just a couple of points. I think I read that Dems lost registration every single months since Nov 08 and GOP gained. In states where Dems hold only a couple point advantage, they usually lose Presidential elections.

[runrunrun4fun]

03:06 PM on 02/01/2012

Ahhh...the mysterious annonymous source (i.e." I think I read that....")

[Symanski]

01:43 PM on 02/01/2012

But but but, Mitt Romney is going to get a PERMANENT four point bounce when he wins the nomination!

Don't worry Republicans. There are lots of plausible paths to 270 without Ohio... Besides, Stats already told us Iowa is gone for B0B0, so, Romney can absorb the loss of Ohio because he can pick up CO per FM's wisdom about their whopping 2.2% LDS population and NV is just itching to nominate a guy whose housing plan is to get you out of your home quicker. Oh, and NM, that's a sure Romney pickup because recall Romney's dad was born in Mexico, and obviously NEW Mexico would be poised to give the border-country favorite a boost.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:31 PM on 02/01/2012

You try to mock my posting of PP's quotes? Isn't PP your favorite pollster?

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/154306798625628161

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/154654428434149376

one more coming..

[Symanski]

03:48 PM on 02/01/2012

Each of the links provided a "Sorry that page does not exist" result.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:34 PM on 02/01/2012

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/154655250643562496

In that order..

[teron678]

01:40 PM on 02/01/2012

Hmmm .. this demographic match-up between Obama and the GOP contenders in OH is strange ..

Obama is getting 70-80% of the black vote while he is running even/winning the white vote .. hmmm

The only state I know that has lots of black GOP voters is NC ... OH is puzzling ... + Obama always loses the white vote in red/swing states ..

Has OH moved left since 2008 .. or are the GOP candidates that unappealing??

[ashenthorn]

01:30 PM on 02/01/2012

Obama gets 77% of the black vote in Ohio? PPP must have called Ken Blackwell and every member of his family for this poll. Obama got 97% of the Ohio black vote in 08. Also, there is no plausible Romney scenario that doesn't include Ohio.