John Cassidy: Why The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Didn't Count 1.2 Million Unemployed

New Yorker:

I would like to respond to something many commentators, on this site and others, have picked up upon: a suggestion that the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (B.L.S.) cooked the unemployment rate by removing 1.2 million Americans from the labor force. Some critics claim that these people should have been counted, and the unemployment rate should be considerably higher than 8.3 per cent.

Read the whole story: New Yorker

Comments

[american-dolt]

09:47 AM on 02/07/2012

Just like "1984", BS Reports.

[gomezrules]

12:01 AM on 02/07/2012

All that is 'proven' here is that NOTHING is indeed proven! The data is open to manipulation. As we see, it is driven by 'assumptions', not actual gathered numbers. So the govt can do what it always does and report what it darn well pleases about the economy in general, and job numbers and rates in particular. I would love to see a survey of businesses that asks if they went ahead and assumed the worse in late '08, and cut their payrolls accordingly, based on Obama being elected, and the uncertainly he brought in with him? That would explain the large amount of cash reserves companies are reputedly sitting on, and not committing to new hiring or expansion. It would also be enlightening to see if any are hiring now in anticipation of a change in the WH this fall, i.e., they believe a more receptive climate will await them after this election? Like I said, I'd love to see that.

[DismayedRepub]

10:04 PM on 02/06/2012

Mr. Cassidy's math doesn't add up. He states the total population in December 2011 was 240,584,000 and that was changed to 242,269,000 after the start of the year, that is a difference of 1,685,000 not the 1,510,000 claimed by the author. I had a math teacher that said if one small part of a solution is wrong the entire answer is wrong.

“The unemployment rate comes from the household survey, which the Census Bureau carries out for the B.L.S.” So how does the Census Bureau conduct this survey? Do they use telephone canvassing or the mail? How many of the long term unemployed are still able to afford a telephone or a home with a mailbox?

I think there is likelihood that they are undercounted simply because are more difficult to contact than those who are employed. The effect of this is that it skews the unemployment rate downward.

[Durrrrrr]

11:10 PM on 02/06/2012

"I think there is likelihood that they are undercount­ed simply because are more difficult to contact than those who are employed. The effect of this is that it skews the unemployme­nt rate downward."

Wrong. Educate yourself (particularly the last link).

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch1_f.htm
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch1_g.htm

[DismayedRepub]

07:26 PM on 02/07/2012

Yes, that is all interesting stuff but it doesn’t account for those that fall through the cracks. What happens when they can’t make contact with someone in the first place? Say if someone was recently evicted from their home because they’ve been out of work and could no longer afford the rent or mortgage? How does the canvasser record that?

What about the follow up phone calls? Does the Census Bureau track how many households they lose track of? How do the count people who’ve dropped out of the sample base? The point I’m trying to make here is that people with jobs are easier to chase down and contact then people without jobs and that biases the results towards a lower rate.

[MDean]

10:04 PM on 02/06/2012

Regardless of how you try to explain what is going on, both major political parties are going to try to cherry pick statistics to support their contentions. Economist predicted that the recovery from the most recent recession would be slow...

[Artos]

09:08 PM on 02/06/2012

While I didn't really need this article to make me aware of these facts, it was somewhat helpful. I am a cynic by nature, especially where it comes to having much trust in the veracity of Politicians, Meteorologists, Car Salesmen, Financial Advisers, Economists, Mechanics, Military recruiters. Generals, Corporation CEOs, Advertising and Marketing People, Lawyers, and a host of others that I can't even list without needing two to three pages. Where it comes to giving us the truth, on what the real numbers of Jobless are, I prefer to keep my own counsel.

[Steve Rockett]

08:13 PM on 02/06/2012

you will be tested.