US-2012 Primary: 39% Romney, 23% Gingrich, 16% Santorum, 15% Paul (ABC/Post 2/1-4)

ABC News / Washington Post
2/1-4/12; 1,000 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Post GOP story, General Election story, results; ABC story

National

Obama Job Approval
50% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 44 / 53 (chart)

2012 President: Republican Primary
39% Romney
23% Gingrich
16% Santorum
15% Paul
(chart)

2012 President: General Election
51% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (chart)
54% Obama (D), 43% Gingrich (R) (chart)

Comments

[-iVote-]

03:26 PM on 02/06/2012

Romney's campaign is freaking out about this poll. Pretty funny.

[stillow1]

04:07 PM on 02/06/2012

Don't know why anyone would bother worrying about a poll that doesn't even include its partisan breakdown. What will they do next? Take a poll on cats at a dog show? The sampel could consist of anything...could be D+30 for all we know....

[runrunrun4fun]

05:06 PM on 02/06/2012

Why don't you heed stillow's advice, Stats? It's not a poll worth looking at.

[Symanski]

05:38 PM on 02/06/2012

Well, that Ras shows Obama with an even bigger lead today would seem to suggest that regardless of the poll, Obama leads Romney.

[Symanski]

02:26 PM on 02/06/2012

Though unrelated to this specific poll, does anyone remember someone recently whinging out over PPP's underpolling of Romney support?

PPP Nevada vs actual

Romney 50% vs 50%
Gingrich 25% vs 21%
Paul 15% vs 19%
Santorum 8% vs 10%

PPP nailed Nevada, save for a small difference in the Gingrich/Paul vote. It is somewhat impressive given the polling difficulties inherent to caucuses.

[teron678]

02:34 PM on 02/06/2012

think u mixed up Paul & Sant .. numbers

[Symanski]

03:20 PM on 02/06/2012

Yep, I totally did. Multi-tasking on Monday morning is never a strong suit. Thanks for pointing it out. I will edit the post to reflect reality. :-)

[stillow1]

02:50 PM on 02/06/2012

Don't know who was "whinging " out....what was pointed out was PPP's underpolling of romney's in 3 of the first 4 contests by a minimum of 4 points or more. Those were facts....

[Symanski]

12:56 PM on 02/06/2012

Ras has Obama +7, 49-42 over Romney today. Also, Obama's RCP approval average is at +2, 48.5 - 46.5, which is a 12 point reversal from when he was -10.2% on 8/31 after the debt ceiling nonsense. If Obama goes on to win re-election, I think a lot of pundits will look back on that as Obama's turning point. Certainly, the polls up to this point suggest as much.

[stillow1]

02:01 PM on 02/06/2012

Hard to say that. Just look at the RCP trend lines...they are up and down. In october 2010 he's underwater by around 5. Then in feb 2011 he is above water by roughly 5. Then in April 2011 he's back underwater by around 3. Then in May 2011 he's back above water by around 9. Then in October 2011 he's back underwater by around 9. Now in Feb 2012 he's back above water by roughly 2. Its all over the place the past couple years. He does seem to struggle though when October comes around the past couple years. That is not the month you want to struggle in!

IMO it is as simple as the economy. Incumbent presidents don't lose if the economy is good....they do lose if its bad.

W had a good economy in 2004 and won. Clinton a good economy in 1996 and won. Reagan a good economy in 1984 and won. Bush Sr had a recession in 1992 and lose. Carter had a lousy economy in 1980 and lost. So at least in recent times the economy will dictate what happens and current good job approval or bad job approval numbers will play very little on the actual outocme later this year.

[Symanski]

02:12 PM on 02/06/2012

Of course there is noise in the time series, but the overall trend is obvious. Whether it is signs of an improving economy, the circus show the GOP nomination has featured, GOP Congressional incompetence, or Obama playing the game of politics better is all arguable, but the trend line is pretty demonstrative. However, if you wish to make believe that being -10% in the autumn and now +2% is not somehow significant, you can do so.

[Wong23]

11:30 AM on 02/06/2012

"Romney paid about a 14 percent federal tax rate on income of about 22 million dollars last year. Do you think he is or is not paying his fair share of taxes? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?"

Paying fair share- 30%
Not paying fair share- 66% (50% strongly)

Romney's tax plan will actually have him paying less taxes, were it to become law.

[stillow1]

11:59 AM on 02/06/2012

You understand that most of his income comes from investments right? Its called capital gains tax. Capitals gains are taxed at a lower rate (and for good reason). For any earned income he has, he pays the same rates everyone else does.

The only way to make him pay his "fair share" would be to increase the rate on capital gains.....now that begs the question, do you even know what capital gains are? Its money you already had (and paid taxes on)which you "invest" into a variety of insruments....and those investments (also known as risk) go into things like small business startups, stock markets and other various markets (which help produce growth and job creation). In other words the economy benefits a great deal from people like Mitty investing their money back into the economy. Do you think the money small business borrows to grow and expand just comes from thin air? It comes from investors (aka, people taking rsik).

Why don't you libs raise the capital gains up to around 50% which I understand is your opinion of "fair share"....or at least what I 've heard liberals say when they are forced to give a # on what "fair share" actually means............raise it to 50% and see what happens to the eocnomy when you do that...........

[StatsNo1fan]

12:05 PM on 02/06/2012

Mitt paid 6 million in Federal taxes in two years. That sure covered a lot of food stamps of the 99%ers. Those ungrateful leeches.

[dpearl]

01:58 PM on 02/06/2012

Of course, it is the definition of capital gains here that is most important and whether carried interest should be part of that. I do not see why the capital gains tax should be applied in a situation where the individual did not risk their own capital. I would not say that a person's income came "from investments" if it really came from managing other people's investments.

[Wong23]

11:20 AM on 02/06/2012

Thinking about what you’re hearing from the candidates for the Republican nomination for president – overall would you say you approve or disapprove of most of what they’ve been saying?

36% approve
54% disapprove

The Republican clown parade will continue through October.

[-iVote-]

10:03 AM on 02/06/2012

"Obama is also seen as having a better understanding of the American people’s economic problems than Romney, 53 to 36 percent."

That's huge. The foreign policy numbers are pretty impressive too for Obama. Romney running on keeping more troops in Iraq for longer will be a disaster. Although I'm sure he'll flip flop on that too just in time for the general, but Obama won't let him get away with it.

[StatsNo1fan]

10:45 AM on 02/06/2012

Obama wins on empathy, but Romney wins on jobs creation, economy, and handling the deficit.

So, do you go with a guy who feels your pain, or the one who can end it?

[stillow1]

10:57 AM on 02/06/2012

The tabs display a little sloppy for me....so I must be missing it, what is the party breakdown?

[runrunrun4fun]

10:57 AM on 02/06/2012

How does Romney win on the deficit? He hasn't faced a federal deficit. As for jobs, the
Job growth increased at a 1.3 percent rate during Romney's term, ranking Massachusetts 47th out of 50 states in that statistic during that time. Not too impressive if you ask me.