VA-2012 President: 47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (Quinnipiac 2/1-6)

Quinnipiac
2/1-6/12; 1,544 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Quinnipiac release

Virginia

2012 President: Republican Primary
68% Romney, 19% Paul

2012 President: General Election
47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R)
51% Obama (D), 37% Gingrich (R)
49% Obama (D), 41% Santorum (R)
47% Obama (D), 40% Paul (R)

2012 Senate: General Election
45% Kaine (D), 44% Allen (R)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Barack Obama: 46 / 49

Comments

[Jose Hill]

06:21 PM on 02/08/2012

The thing about VA that the GOP doesn't seem to get is that the demographics in places that they used to own have changed so dramatically and quickly. Prince William County, VA used to be ruby red. It went for Obama the last time. Keep an eye on Henrico and Loudon counties in that state. As those 2 counties go, so goes all of VA.

[Fushek]

04:25 PM on 02/08/2012

The excitement factor ... I can honestly say as a Republican, I'm NOT very excited about any of the candidates but I I will pull the lever for Mitt or Rick and be satisfied.

I think this was a HUGE advantage last time for Obama. He was a relative newbie on the scene and everyone had a warm and fuzzy feeling about him. Now, having a record behind him, I think that many have lost that excitement factor as well. The honeymoon is over and now you see his faults like anyone else.

It will be interesting to see if the fringe Obama voters (those who perhaps got caught up in the romance) will get out to vote again or not. If I were to make an early guess, there will be much lower voter turnout on BOTH sides.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

01:57 PM on 02/08/2012

I really do think that Virginia and Ohio may be the toughest nuts to crack for the GOP. If you look at the new Gallup "State of the States" numbers, Virginia is very problematic. And polling out of Ohio is tough, too.

Colorado will turn red, but I'm growing more and more confident that much of the rest of the country will not.

[-iVote-]

02:26 PM on 02/08/2012

Yeah, that amazing GOP turnout in Colorado last night spells doom for the Democrats!

[Symanski]

02:30 PM on 02/08/2012

Didn't you get the talking points? GOP turnout is down because there are so many undecideds! Before that, GOP turnout was down because Romney was inevitable and people don't show up to vote in a contest they deem "already decided." Before that, GOP enthusiasm was "off the charts."

Unfortunately, the data do not support a great GOP enthusiasm surge.

From PPP:
The paltry turnout in the Republican Presidential contests over the last week reflects what we've seen in our recent national polling: Democrats are now more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, reversing the enthusiasm gap that plagued the party in 2010.

Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats 'very excited' and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.

Going deeper inside the numbers:

-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.

-The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.

-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.

[stillow1]

02:35 PM on 02/08/2012

I cannot find any correlation between lower primary turnout and general election turnout. Do you have any data on it? From the little I have seen there is no correlation...and that low/high primary turnout does not always equate to higher/lower general election turnout.

[Symanski]

02:28 PM on 02/08/2012

I cannot understand your assurance that CO will be red. Obama won there easily and there's no recent polling whatsoever to suggest he's in trouble there. If you have polls from the last few weeks that suggest otherwise, I'd love to see them.

[-iVote-]

04:14 PM on 02/08/2012

This guy's been saying the same thing for a while now...

I think it's just wishful thinking from a Colorado Republican.

[AaronTX]

08:53 PM on 02/08/2012

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

Not many polls, but Obama looks in good shape there.

[Xenobion]

01:53 PM on 02/08/2012

The interesting turn around is also to see how Obama is now out preforming his Democratic counterparts in many of the senate/governor races which I believe to have better and less damaged Republican contenders than the presidential race. After 20+ Republican debates and little deliverable message than obliterate the last 4 years as if they didn't exist, you wonder why Romney has sunk in performance against Obama. But I guess we can only wait for an amazing bounce once we get a nominee!

[stillow1]

02:09 PM on 02/08/2012

Sunk? Nothing has changed. Romney vs. Obama is the same as it was a year ago....back and forth we go. You lefties are too funny....when O bounces up all of a sudden you guys come out and post all this stuff...and then Romney bounces up, it crickets....then when its O again, here comes the posts....then crickets again.............

The bottom line is that its a dynamic race that has been bouncing back and forth for while now...Obama has the inehrant incumbent advantage built into the polling at this time, but the race is still cleary back and forth.

Both Romney and Obama routinely poll below 50 (with a couple exceptions here and there)....no one right now has the numbers on a consistent basis to claim any kind of big advantage. A slight advantage lean goes to Obama as the incumbent....but beyond that....there's no doomsday happening on either side.

[Symanski]

02:33 PM on 02/08/2012

Yeah, lots of bouncing back and forth in Obama v. Romney.

Why look at those time series! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Wouldn't your narrative have more validity if there was at least one time period where Romney led? Check out that bottom +/- chart. Yeah, all over the place....in roughly the same direction, + Obama.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:09 PM on 02/08/2012

Again, the post-primary bounce is just a truism, not a PP opinion. I've read such elections scholars as Frank Newport, Stu Rothenburg and many others making the same claim, based on precedent.

I also noted that while B0B0 is enjoying a mild resurgence, it did not seem to help Kaine. As far as debates go, during the earlier stages, Mitt was doing better when they focused on issues and B0B0. Now it turned into one of the ugliest mud fests in GOP primary history, and B0B0 has had great news on economy, gave a pretty sounding SOTU address, and yet he barely moved the needle so far. He should be crushing the GOP right now, with all the good news for him and all the ugliness coming from them. Doesn't bode too well for his reelection chances.

[stillow1]

02:19 PM on 02/08/2012

While I agree there will be a post primary bump for the nominee....I just wonder how much conventional wisdom or past precedent we can apply this year. We're coming off historic gains in 2010 and now we have a primary that is breaking all the conventional rules....kinda makes the general election just totally unpredictable to an extent doesn't it?

[StatsNo1fan]

01:04 PM on 02/08/2012

PP tweets:

"Not sure nominating_Santorum would be a disaster for GOP. We're finding less and less of an electability gap with him and Romney"

[stillow1]

01:27 PM on 02/08/2012

From the comments of some of these lefties, I think they are getting confused between your posts and what you claim....and what you are posting PPP is actually claiming.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:37 PM on 02/08/2012

Years of drug use really destroy one's recall and reason. What are you gonna do?

[Xenobion]

01:41 PM on 02/08/2012

Surprise! Lefties think for themselves and have many opinions that all can't be found on 1 television channel!

[Symanski]

02:03 PM on 02/08/2012

Such bipolarity with you on PPP. On the one hand, you trash their polls on a daily basis, yet you believe with such confidence the veracity of their tweets.

So, to be clear. PPP Polls = Trash? PPP Tweets = Gold?

[StatsNo1fan]

02:11 PM on 02/08/2012

I find their tweets frequently to be excuses for their biased polls.

[StatsNo1fan]

12:59 PM on 02/08/2012

To those who claimed last night that Mitt is the only one with a chance against B0B0, PP twits:

"Not sure nominating Santorum would be a disaster for GOP. We're finding less and less of an electability gap with him and Romney"

[jbvbwysu]

01:43 PM on 02/08/2012

Sounds great...put Rick up. He lost to the hilariously bland and insipid Bob Casey by 18 POINTS. Also, you can't even google his name.

[teron678]

12:15 PM on 02/08/2012

Obama wins VA he wins in another landslide ......

[Symanski]

12:21 PM on 02/08/2012

Maybe Quinnipiac is also holding back 4 PERMANENT points for the eventual GOP nominee?

[stillow1]

01:25 PM on 02/08/2012

I beleive that was PPP who claims there will be a +4 point movement to the eventual GOP nominee. If you wish to challenge their assessment, you are free to do so.

This poll fits right in the consistent back and forth of the Romney vs. Obama matchup. Last spring/summer O had leads in VA from +4-11. Then in the fall Romney had leads of +1-8. Now in the winter O has leads of +1-4.....just continuign the pattern of a back and forth race in this matchup.

It just continues to play to the generally accepted narrative that a Romney vs Obama matchup is very close with the slight advantage going to the incumbent.

[StatsNo1fan]

11:53 AM on 02/08/2012

Hehe, you guys built a nice bomb shelter.. but nothing a small bunker buster couldn't penetrate.

But, other than that, it's a pretty nice poll. Even with B0B0's recent resurgence, he still loses to GOP's frontrunner, and Kaine gets whooped by Allen.

[bipartisanshipsailed]

10:22 AM on 02/09/2012

Lol you are an amusing individual.

[jbvbwysu]

11:44 AM on 02/08/2012

Liberal lies, I tell ya! B0B0 is toast.

[Symanski]

11:33 AM on 02/08/2012

Wait for it...

[runrunrun4fun]

11:54 AM on 02/08/2012

With the sole exception of South Carolina, and marginally Iowa, the voter turnout has been down in all the contests (to date), and yet we're supposed to believe the GOP enthusiasm is unmatched.