OH-2012 President: 45% Obama (D), 41% Romney (R) (Rasmussen 2/8)

Rasmussen
2/8/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Rasmussen release

Ohio

2012 President
45% Obama (D), 41% Romney (R)
44% Obama (D), 44% Santorum (R)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[Rocketsfan]

11:32 AM on 02/10/2012

It's funny to see the libs on here shocked SHOCKED that a state that elected John Kasich and Ken Blackwell to statewide positions would trend toward Santorum.

Santorum fits Ohio well. Ohio has a good deal of evangelicals in the SE and rural areas. The farming communities of Ohio hold a bigger sway on state elections (look at electoral maps, Cleveland, Toledo, and Youngstown are way different than the rest of the state).

Also gay marriage is not a make or break issue in Ohio (sorry Aaron in TX) most don't care one way or the other except the evangelicals.

Romney can win Ohio too, again if Kasich having worked for Lehman can why can't Mitt? Ohio's economy tanked hard in 2010 and has been working more and more to be pro-business. Unlike Michigan there is hope for Ohio to realize that the Industrial Revolution economic model is quickly dieing in America.

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

12:27 AM on 02/10/2012

Just more proof that the longer the GOP primary continues, the more Romney's chances fade.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

03:30 PM on 02/09/2012

I don't see a way for Romney to win Ohio, but, of course, I've been saying that for several months now. If you take a peak at all the polling and the 2011 election results, you get the sense that it is Ohio and possibly Virginia and North Carolina that will carry Obama across the line in 2012. Colorado, Florida, and possibly Nevada will be very tough for Obama this time around, but all you need is Ohio. Frankly, I think he'll have it.

[Symanski]

04:27 PM on 02/09/2012

I agree with you on Ohio, but I'm less sold on Virginia and a lot less so on North Carolina.

I disagree with you most on Nevada. I think Obama won there by 12-13% and I just don't see that he's lost all of that support there. The biggest issues in Nevada are the unemployment rate and the housing market/foreclosure mess. Let's assume Romney is the nominee. I can see him doing well in Nevada because of his LDS faith and he'll be hammering Obama on jobs. But, on foreclosures, Romney is going to appear like a "bad guy" to a lot of struggling homeowners in Nevada. While there's some reason to be for his "foreclosure faster" housing plan, you have to admit that it's not exactly a political winner for a moderate Clark or Washoe county voter who just happens to be 50%+ underwater and sinking fast.

[Lat1]

02:41 PM on 02/09/2012

Stats,

You now understand why I have been saying for months that I want to run against Romney. Santorum would give Obama much more trouble. Santorum, unlike Romney doesn't twist himself into a pretzel on every issue imaginable, in addition I disagree with Santorum on just about everything, but I don't think he's phony or inauthentic the way Romney is.

[Jeff Bunting]

01:28 PM on 02/09/2012

Rasmussen has been polling for Santorum for some time now. They even had a poll with Santorum 5 points ahead. This shows that Rasmussen is a complete joke.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:34 PM on 02/09/2012

Santorum 5 points ahead? Where?

[Joe Pithier]

03:02 PM on 02/09/2012

Interesting rhetorical conflation: Polling/pulling. I'd stop short of saying that Rasmussen "pulls" for candidates with its polling, but I do think it drives a narrative.

[Symanski]

01:23 PM on 02/09/2012

Look at Ricky taking advantage of his economic populism and blue collar appeal in neighboring Ohio. I think Santorum has an advantage over Romney in the rust belt, but could potentially be less appealing the the western states like Nevada where Romney would seem poised to do better on account of his religion. Interesting dynamic here.

[Joe Pithier]

03:04 PM on 02/09/2012

I think he's also taking advantage of a very helpful lack of exposure. I can't prove it though, as the above poll doesn't ask about that.

[Symanski]

04:16 PM on 02/09/2012

Yep. It'll be interesting to see how RS holds up under the lights...

[AaronTX]

05:55 PM on 02/09/2012

Disparaging remarks about gays, etc... that stuff will come out about him. There's a reason he lost by 19 in PA.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:21 PM on 02/09/2012

Rick caught Newt on Gallup daily tracking. It's a 5-day rolling poll, so it does not even reflect all the days since Rick's big wins. Newt falling like a rock.

[teron678]

12:41 PM on 02/09/2012

The GOP loses OH they lose the election ... good times .. :-)

[StatsNo1fan]

12:51 PM on 02/09/2012

Plenty of ways to win without OH. Picking off FL, VA, NC, IN, NH, NV and CO from the 08 map will get it done, among other paths. Pretty feasible.

[docboss83]

01:03 PM on 02/09/2012

Hahahahahaha. Yah, if the GOP loses Ohio, they just have to pick up 6 other Obama states to win. So simple.

[Xenobion]

01:19 PM on 02/09/2012

I'm sure there are other ways to get it done but OH will be one of the easiest.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:39 PM on 02/09/2012

WTF? Romney does worse than Santorum? Only Rasmussen would show this. Santorum could not possibly win over Independents once his views on birth control come through, and his failure to even denounce the woman in the crowd who wanted to remove Obama because she thought he was born in another country. It shows how badly the GOP has regressed since mccain in 2008, when he told that crazy woman in MN that Obama is a good family man, who he believes is Christian, but whom he just disagrees with on policy issues. These issues are what is destroying American politics, and will ultamately destroy the GOP in 2012, if they don't get a grip, and focus on fixing the economy, and being critical of Obama's spending, without having to sound like bigots. That is only going to unite progressives and probably destroy the GOP in 2012.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:06 PM on 02/09/2012

Rick's failure to denounce a woman in the crowd will destroy the GOP in 2012?

[Jeff Bunting]

01:28 PM on 02/09/2012

his extremist views will destroy the GOP in 2012.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

03:28 PM on 02/09/2012

Actually, Santorum fits Ohio like a glove. He's generally pro-union, pro-manufacturing, pro-life, less strident on the whole "cut the unions" routine that makes Ohio mad, pro-marriage, Catholic, etc. If you know Ohio at all, you'd know that Rick Santorum is a tremendous fit for that state, as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc. I think he'd also play well in Colorado and Iowa.

[Symanski]

04:32 PM on 02/09/2012

Agreed on OH, PA, MI, and IA. RS would fare better in El Paso county in CO, but would that translate to picking up more support in Adams, Jefferson, and Douglas county? I think it'd be a wash for RS vs Romney in CO; one would do better in some places (Romney in the Denver burbs), while RS would do far better in the theocratic-military-industrial base of the Springs. But Iowa is the real interesting one. I don't know the state well, but I'd bet RS would give Obama a bigger challenge there than Romney. Michigan? I think that's a lost cause for the GOP.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:43 PM on 02/09/2012

I don't know about that. Ohio has a lot of pro-life conservatives, but like PA has elected people like Portman, Taft, Tom Ridge in PA was actually pro-choice, and Toomey is socially conservative, but known more for being a fiscal hawk. Santorum would scare women voters, and there is a lot more damage that Obama's supporters could do to Santorum. He lost his re-election by 19 points too.

[StatsNo1fan]

12:27 PM on 02/09/2012

Ras' polls are_wacky lately, but it does make sense that Rick would do better in OH than Mitt.

[Xenobion]

01:20 PM on 02/09/2012

I think the state has more real conservatives than moderate/independents. I'm not surprised that Santorum does well here as well. I mean its just next door to PA.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:28 PM on 02/09/2012

Yeah. Rick appeals to blue-collar whites, of which there are many in PA and OH.

I guess good question would be does Rick make PA more winnable for GOP. If he can carry OH AND PA, I think he cruises to an easy win.

[Jeff Bunting]

01:29 PM on 02/09/2012

the guy who runs these polls worked for Fox News. Of course they are wacky.

[alanrsnipes]

12:20 PM on 02/09/2012

Another state that Republicans must win is trending to Obama.

[bipartisanshipsailed]

12:45 PM on 02/09/2012

Not necessarily Santorum was not even close last time but looks like he could actually beat Obama in Ohio according to Ras. I would have to see some more evidence to see if this is a true trend for Santorum.