FL-2012 President: 47% Obama (D), 44% Romney (R) (Rasmussen 2/9)

Rasmussen
2/9/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Rasmussen release

Florida

2012 President
47% Obama (D), 44% Romney (R)
47% Obama (D), 46% Santorum (R)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[Jeff Bunting]

08:40 PM on 02/13/2012

I really don't trust Rasmussen or even Gallup as reliable. Both of these polls seem rather dishonest and go out of their way to support conservative principles. I'm willing to bet that Obama's more ahead of Romney than this poll tries to state.

[A New Jersey Farmer]

04:25 PM on 02/11/2012

Romney's record belies his claim to be conservative and conservatives know it. He protests too much.

[Lat1]

04:12 PM on 02/11/2012

Mitt Romney claims to be "severely" conservative. Wrong Governor you're "severely" flawed!

[StatsNo1fan]

11:33 AM on 02/11/2012

Newt and his super PAC are pretty broke, according to this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/gingrich-seeks-to-ease-fundraising-woes-as-big-donations-slow.html

[ashenthorn]

10:03 AM on 02/11/2012

PPP just released national poll putting Santorum 15 pts ahead of Romney, who's back at 23% support among republican primary voters. Romney proved again yesterday that he's inauthentic and cannot properly speak the language of today's conservatives. Who in his right mind would describe himself as "severely conservative"? That sounds like an insult thought up by Al Sharpton.

[funkeepickle]

11:53 AM on 02/11/2012

Ouch, that's brutal. I'm not even going to begin to predict what that means for the rest of the race though, this primary's been far too wild to predict anything anymore.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:46 PM on 02/10/2012

The true losers in 2012 I think will be moderate Republicans or conservative republican freshman in districts where they usually like moderate republicans. NH, the Philly suburbs, Chicago suburbs, parts of WI, MI, upstate and downstate NY, CA, and Washington state. It is these places where the dems can pick up their 25 seats to take back congress.

During these culture war debates, the ones who are silent are people like Susan Collins, Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, and Rudi Guilliani has been relatively silent recently during this GOP primary.

[ashenthorn]

06:23 PM on 02/10/2012

A wise person from another site said about the controversy and the "accomodation": "The only downside is that Obama has further eroded his support amongst people who think he is the anti-Christ or can do no right." There is a stark contrast between the 2008 long competitive democratic primary and what the republicans are doing this year. Everywhere Obama and Hillary went and fought each other in high profile races, they increased the popularity of the democrats relative to the party occupying the White House. They built bases of power in the swing states holding early primaries like Iowa and New or more Hampshire that paid dividends in November. The 2012 republican primaries are having the opposite effect. Because they've only hit a few states so far the effect on the national polling is lagging, but even that is starting to move. By the time this thing ends, whoever "wins" might be down by 15 points nationally to Obama.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:35 PM on 02/10/2012

Well I simply ignore those people who think that religion, is fundamental protestant denominations, megachurches, baptists etc, or conservative catholics to be Christians. I beg to differ. Nevertheless, politics have been increasingly debating religious issues. The Christian right hijacked the GOP in the early 80's and gradually they hijacked the south to the point that blue dog socially conservative democrats are going extinct. Likewise, moderate republicans seem to not exist outside CA, NY, New england and the mid atlantic states. I think a lot of that is religion has hijacked the political debate so much on birth control and abortion, but conservatives lack a social conscience, and fail to support universal health care, and in the case of many US catholic conservatives, they support executions too, which the pope has condemned. Religious conservatives talk the talk but fail to walk the walk.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:39 PM on 02/10/2012

And with Obama and HIllary you had two outstanding candidates with the right credentials, yet Hillary had more experience. That was a fight that helped the Democrats because they both had a vision of change in America from the failed Bush policies. With this year's gop, you've got a weak candidate whose been running for president in Romney who thinks we should have let the US auto industry go bankrupt, a principled candidate in Ron Paul, and two absolute freaks, Santorum and Gingrich, who would get creamed by Obama.

[StatsNo1fan]

03:15 PM on 02/10/2012

A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar.

The bartender says "Hi, Mitt"

Courtesy of FNC..

[teron678]

03:51 PM on 02/10/2012

LOL ... saw it .. it was funny ... 1st funny j0ke a C0n has made ..

[StatsNo1fan]

07:53 PM on 02/10/2012

Just realized the joke was from Foster Freiss.

Anyways, we'll strive to be more like you, so our every post can be a joke.

[Symanski]

02:03 PM on 02/11/2012

It was funnier in print than in the way Mr. Freiss delivered it.

[ObamaRican]

03:11 PM on 02/10/2012

Tr0//ies ain't liking this:-)

[Lat1]

02:59 PM on 02/10/2012

I'm not buying this. I know it's 2 different pollsters but Obama is ahead in FL and behind in PA? No way!

[Joe Pithier]

03:18 PM on 02/10/2012

Well, as it's two different pollsters, and early February, you don't have to "buy" anything. Snapshots, baby, snapshots.

[ajinnyc]

02:28 PM on 02/10/2012

If Rasmussen can't get the numbers for Romney then he is in worse trouble than we all thought.

[Symanski]

02:12 PM on 02/10/2012

Ras today shows Obama 50 Romney 40 nationally. Ouch. Good thing Romney's got lots of time to turn this thing around. I'm sure his CPAC appearance will help gain him new support.

[teron678]

02:52 PM on 02/10/2012

LOL

[Symanski]

07:47 PM on 02/10/2012

His description of himself as "severely conservative," struck me as an odd choice of words. Severely isn't usually a word one uses in a positive sense. Fires can be severe. Devastation can be severe. One can be severely unstable. But, "severely" conservative doesn't really sound good. I'm probably overanalyzing it to a degree, but it seems like language someone desperate for conservative support would say.

[ashenthorn]

01:31 PM on 02/10/2012

7 point swing in Obama's favor since the last time Ras polled Florida. The more time the republicans spend campaiging in a state, the more Obama benefits.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:51 PM on 02/10/2012

Yeah, sure, that makes sense. Mitt and Newt blanketed the state with the amount of negativity it has never seen before. Turned a lot of voters off and likely depressed primary turnout. So what does it mean for the general? Nothing. Of course Obama benefited, sitting on the sidelines, while his likely opponents clobbered each other. .

But what will happen in the general? It will be the GOP nominee vs. B0 clobbering each other, so whatever benefit B0 got during the GOP primary will be less than a faint memory.

[teron678]

02:04 PM on 02/10/2012

spin stats spin .. LOL

[ashenthorn]

03:45 PM on 02/10/2012

It could be "negativity", or it could be simply that the policy positions that one must take up to impress republican primary voters in 2012 are simply anethema to everyone else. WMUR Granite state polled NH directly after the republican presidential primary and found Obama beating Romney by 10 points and Obama 10 points improved in job approval from the poll taken before the republicans came to town.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:20 PM on 02/10/2012

Ah, I see what Ras is trying to do here; promote Rick and lull the Dems into the false sense of security.

[Symanski]

01:51 PM on 02/10/2012

So, you're suggesting that Ras is a fraud polling outfit whose sole purpose is to drive narratives?

Interesting.

[teron678]

02:03 PM on 02/10/2012

LOL ....

[teron678]

01:20 PM on 02/10/2012

The GOP loses FL they lose the election

[Symanski]

01:28 PM on 02/10/2012

At this point in 1980, Jimmy Carter was 37 points ahead of Ronald Reagan.

[Xenobion]

02:32 PM on 02/10/2012

At this point in 1876 Samuel J. Tilden was ahead of Rutherford B. Hayes by 90% and we all know how that turned out!

[PunchingDonkey]

03:04 PM on 02/11/2012

Sorry to tell you that at this point in 1980, the hostages were already in Iranian hands. You'll have no such luck this time.

[Teacher Trish]

01:50 PM on 02/12/2012

I received my Obama "Road to Victory" campaign literature in the mail today. It has an electoral college map outlining several scenarios in which Obama can win the election. A Florida win is not included in any of the scenarios. So, yes, if he wins Florida, it will be a huge loss to Romney.

Obama 2012

[Symanski]

02:34 PM on 02/12/2012

Why on earth would their campaign literature NOT include Florida in any of their scenarios? They won the state last time and it's been a very competitive state since 1992. I believe the state's presidential winner has won by less than or equal to 6% in every election beginning with 1992. It's doubtful that team Obama is somehow writing this state off. They don't need it, but a win there pretty much seals the deal.

[backroadri]

05:12 PM on 02/13/2012

Yes, I thought the "Road to Victory" was a rather tortured way of highlighting their campaign strategy--and leaving out Florida makes little sense. Why not start with their VICTORY of 2008, note that, if the same results applied today there'd be only six additional electoral votes that would go Republican, and then point out that NO state they won in 2008 is out of reach in 2012?