Santorum Calculus: Strengths And Weaknesses Could Add Up To 'Nightmare Scenario'

The story of the GOP campaign right now can be boiled down to two storylines: Rick Santorum's polling numbers and Mitt Romney's money. The former Pennsylvania senator continues to amass an impressive portfolio of public favor -- this week's polls out of Michigan have Santorum ahead, to varying degrees, and Thursday morning, Rasmussen released the results of an Ohio poll that had Santorum leading the former Massachusetts governor by a 42-24 percent margin. Those are the two states identified by Larry Sabato as critical to getting Romney back on the path to inevitability -- a path paved with several metric tons of campaign cash, all of which funds attack ads, campaign infrastructure and organization. So what exactly does it mean to be as cash-strapped as Rick Santorum is? Jonathan Bernstein lays it out:

In a close nomination battle, it's all about delegates. But Santorum's campaign is badly lagging in organization. This could mean he doesn't reap all the delegates that might be his due if we assume, for the sake of argument, that his current popularity holds or even gets stronger. Santorum has already failed to make the ballot in two key states, Virginia and Indiana. Has he filed full delegate slates in other states where it's required? If not, he could win, but still not get delegates.

In most GOP caucus states, the voting is not strictly connected to delegate selection. If Santorum's voters don't understand the procedures, it's very possible he could win the vote and yet pick up only a handful of delegates. Indeed, that may have already happened in caucus states he's won, like Iowa, Colorado, and Minnesota.

What's interesting about this is that Santorum's campaign is, essentially, an inverse of Ron Paul's. What Paul brings to the table is a more-than-adequately funded operation of well-schooled operatives who have been taught to work the caucus system like pros and snatch additional delegates from the jaws of second- and third-place finishes. Santorum is amassing wins, and is setting the table for more of the same, but his ragtag operation may not be able to max out these successes on the delegate leaderboard.

As Bernstein notes: "Because there's such a bewildering mix of delegate selection rules in the Republican process, a smart campaign can focus on the best places to win delegates. But it's hard to make good strategic choices when you don't even have a pollster!" (Let's recall that back in January, Santorum's "Michigan operation" boiled down to some dude with a Facebook page.)

But how does all of this add up to a GOP "nightmare scenario," as Bernstein refers to it? Well, imagine a future in which Santorum continues to dominate the polls, rack up primary wins, and win a greater share of what we'll call, for the sake of argument, the "vote," only to lose the one contest that matters -- delegates -- to Romney. See the problem? If it's not immediately apparent to you, click over to Bernstein to see how the story ends.

READ THE WHOLE THING:
A GOP nightmare scenario [The Plum Line]

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Comments

[ennis438]

06:35 AM on 02/18/2012

Obama is the luckiest person in the USA and should take his luck to Reno. The "field of dreams" Republipunk assortment of the Three Stooges assures Obama re-election even though he has been a major disappointment to many of his voters from 4 years ago. This Three Stooges Marathon , with Mitt the Flip, Santorum, and Newt all trying to out- right the other, is assuring the independent voters will never vote for either of the Stooges. And all they need is Fruitcake Palin to come in and "rescue" the party at convention time, and then the Marathon will be completely funny. If the Republipunk party ever had an opening, they sure did last year. Someone like Teddy Roosevelt would slaughter Obama and probably bring with him or her a large Congressional majority, also. But the dimwits don't get it, appeal to the Rash Limpburger disease, and continue to go further and further right and farther away from the independents. Thanks, Republipunks, for giving Obama four more years.

[jmalta54]

08:06 PM on 02/17/2012

While you focus on the "republican " candidates we have this govt adding more to the debt and increasing military presence in the middle east, but woried about potential candidates? While important, very important news is being minimized. Why? Social conservatives will not win, not will the left wing liberal. It will be who is perceived as moderate, and moderate to more conservative. Why, 72% in polls concerned with the economy.

[McGuffin18]

08:00 PM on 02/17/2012

Santorum FTW! Santorum FTW leading his lemming base off a cliff of thumperist, hollow dogma, born of a fundamentalist misunderstanding of the religion he attempts to espouse.

[vmar]

07:46 PM on 02/17/2012

Be careful what you wish for. No matter what happens in Michigan or other states which will have their primaries in the next few month, Santorum will not be the GOP nominee. the real danger is that he bloodies Romney to such an extent that we have a brokered convention. there, a new and powerful candidate surfaces such as Bush or Christie. there, Obama is in a real dog fight. while technically the DNC would prefer to go up against Santorum, they know it will not happen. they prefer a beat upped Romney but not one so crippled that it forces the adults in the GOP to select a credible candidate. Believe me, that is what they are hopping for now.

[Giggie]

07:27 PM on 02/17/2012

Santorum, Romney Gingrich, to me they all have very unappealing platforms, one is worse than the next and their campaign staff, money....none of it matters. Social conservatives have a big voice in this election, let's see what the country thinks. They assume that they represent the majority. I'm betting they will be gone baby gone this november.

[Nightangle]

07:26 PM on 02/17/2012

From a propagandist.

[shrugged]

07:20 PM on 02/17/2012

Picking Sanctorum might be best for the GOP in the long run. They would get handed their heads in November and maybe then start to purge the theocracy coalition from the GOP. It is the idea of an alcoholic needing to hit bottom before they admit they have a problem and can start to recover.

[Level7]

07:04 PM on 02/17/2012

I predict a Right-Wing wild card, or a Romney/Santorum ticket.

[wikwox]

06:51 PM on 02/17/2012

Santorum illustrates the soft undebelly of the GOP, what thier base wants is what America hates. Social Conservatism can't even carry a majority of the GOP let alone win in an general election. Dream of the end of contraception, abortion and the return of prayer in school all you want, it ain't gonna happen and you can kiss the White House goodbye. Mitt has failed to inspire, in fact his greatest success is as a depressant to the Republican faithfull.

[shrugged]

07:22 PM on 02/17/2012

The underbelly is also called the neocon.

[McGuffin18]

07:55 PM on 02/17/2012

a little further south...

[bllbgwll]

06:00 PM on 02/17/2012

All of these changing scenarios in the Republican race (make that chaos) are nothing less than rich and flavorful nutrition for the Obama campaign.

[OceanSize]

03:34 PM on 02/17/2012

I realize this wouldn't be the first time that one party in a two party system simply vanished before our eyes (Whigs? Anyone?), but man I never thought I'd actually see it happen in my lifetime. Investors know that you shouldn't read too much into a dramatic price movement if there isn't accompanying volume to go with it. In a low volume environment, you can see prices soar not because the fundamentals just got better, but because no sellers showed up to work that day. In other words, the price movement doesn't tell you anything when there is light volume other than there wasn't enough interest in the subject for one side to want to debate the other side.

This is the only reason why we're still talking about Rick Santorum. Barely anyone is showing up at the primaries, especially when considering all the anti-Obama passion there is out there. Basically the only conservatives who can be bothered to find some passion for their candidates right now are the fundies.

Even my very fiscally conservative friends are finally starting to realize that the GOP no longer represents fiscal conservatives. If fiscal conservatives ever want to be taken seriously, they need to kick out the social cons and keep them out. Otherwise the GOP will join the Whigs in our history books because they simply don't represent very many Americans any more.

[Just-the-facts]

07:01 PM on 02/17/2012

I'm fiscally conservative, but totally wrote off the Republicans in Reagan's first administration. There is nothing fiscal conservative about Reagan, Bush, the Scrub Bush, or any of these candidates. These are the creators of the hugh deficits, insane policy of trickle down and refusal to tax anyone but the poor and middle class. Add to that the religious terrany and what do we have.

[HoustonWeHaveAProblem]

02:26 PM on 02/17/2012

One man's nightmare is another man's paradise.

There is nothing I'd like more than to see Ricky take the republican nomination and then choose Bachmann for VP. Religious conservatives would have their chance to put their propaganda to the test. Winner take all.

Perhaps then we could begin the governing of this country and expect some sensible results.

[amaboss52]

02:22 PM on 02/17/2012

The nightmare scenario for the gop is their candidates, none can beat Obama, and thats the nightmare the gop is really facing. They can spend their money, spew their lies and rack up all the delegates they want. It will come down to electability in the end and none of them are electable. Just wait till all of Santorums skeletons are released from the closet, he'll be sliding in no time.

[spinotter11]

06:26 PM on 02/17/2012

Romney is the most electable.

[amaboss52]

06:37 PM on 02/17/2012

Wow, the most electable of the unelectables. LOL!

[Grinling Gibbons]

06:47 PM on 02/17/2012

That and a couple hundred million dollars will still make him the loser to Mr. O.

[aacme]

07:11 PM on 02/17/2012

The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that Americans are waking up with a bad hangover and realizing that their great romance with the right amounted to some whispered sweet nothings and a mickey slipped in their drink. They're still reeling, but at some point will reach for the morning-after pill.

[maconmo]

01:27 PM on 02/17/2012

The nightmare will begin once Santorum is fully vetted.

[capn moose]

01:06 PM on 02/17/2012

This is a story that Rick Santorum should have known well before the primary season, and the same for Newt Gingrich. An argument can be made for supporting the presidential candidates who knows the rules, raises the money, plans and organizes his campaign the best. That said, Romney just shoots himself in the foot so often he can barely stick those toes in his mouth any more. It was said often months ago that the nomination race was his to lose because of his money and organization, and it looks like he is doing just that. As the Patriots learned, you gotta catch the ball as well as you throw it.

[suntzu]

06:57 PM on 02/17/2012

Well, according to Gisele Bundchen Brady, you can't expect the quarterback to throw a pass as well as catch it. I dunno, Superman can do it, why not Brady? He makes a lot more money that Clark Kent, Reporter.