MT-2012 Senate: 47% Rehberg (R), 44% Tester (D) (Rasmussen 2/22)

Rasmussen
2/22/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Rasmussen release

Montana

2012 President: Republican Primary
47% Rehberg (R), 44% Tester (D)

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Comments

[Field Marshall]

10:14 PM on 02/23/2012

Is there any chance the Dems hold the senate?

[Xenobion]

10:49 PM on 02/23/2012

26% chance according to Intrade!

[Bukama]

12:18 PM on 02/24/2012

I don't see it, though 8 months is a long time.

At minimum you start with these flips:

Rehberg beats Tester (MT)
Republican wins Neb.
Rick Berg beats Heidi Heitcamp (ND)

Then you need just two more net wins among these seven:

Connie Mack over Bill Nelson (FL)
Scott Brown over Elizabeth Warren (MA)
Republican over Claire McCaskill (MO)
Heather Wilson over Martin Heinrich (NM)
Dean Heller over Shelley Berkley (NV)
George Allen over Tim Kaine (VA)
Republican over Democrat in Wisconsin

If Walker wins the recall election in WI, I think it bodes very well for Republicans in WI. At the moment, George Allen is in the lead in VA, Scott Brown and Dean Heller are incumbents in the lead in MA and NV. A Romney nomination will help Scott Brown in MA, and NM just elected a Republican governor (who might even be the VP candidate).

[AaronTX]

04:22 PM on 02/24/2012

It's not a foregone conclusion Rehberg beats Tester. This is within MoE and it's Ras. I would put the chances of holding the senate 50/50 with the VP is pretty good.

All those democrats in your 2nd list look pretty strong. Weakest is probably WI. Have you seen NM polling? Obama is going to win there by 10 points at least, will be hard for a republican to win.

Not that the senate will do anything so split, no matter which party has control. Repubs are doing dems somewhat of a favor by beating the conservative dems. Very little chance of any partisan legislation picking up enough dems to get to 60.

[-iVote-]

04:34 PM on 02/23/2012

Rasmussen showing Obama tied/ahead in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. Very interesting...

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

10:46 PM on 02/23/2012

I think those random swing state polls, don't add up. I don't think they poll the whole state, and don't do enough cities. I think the Rasmussen poll that is exclusively Virginia is about right.

Las week the swing state project had Obama more popular in FL, NC and VA than the 4 swing states in the midwest. That didn't add up either. If Ohio and Florida don't go for Obama in 2012, they are damn fools. I don't think Obama will lose either state, because regardless of these illegal superpacs, people will get sick of it after awhile. Scott Walker has actually been a proven liar. He had a billboard that had to be taken down for bragging about it's job growth. The Unemployment figures in WI have not improved, and growth is well behind many other states.

Walker has to go, and I think he will go.

[Bukama]

11:54 AM on 02/24/2012

Illegal Superpacs?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:15 PM on 02/23/2012

This is not too bad for a very rural red state in the American west. The GOP has gone back to establishment candidates in just about every competitive race in 2012, wheras in 2010, they were going after people nobody had ever heard of like Lee in Utah, Sharron Angle, Ron Johnson, Christine O'donnell, and for Governor Rick Scott.

This year, it's establishment conservatives like this guy, Heather Wilson in NM, Thompson in WI, and George Allen in VA.

Tester seems like a all round good guy, so perhaps he might win over some independents.

[Symanski]

08:03 PM on 02/23/2012

Tester is about as solid a fit for a moderate Dem in Montana as you could hope to find.

A few years back, Montana was trending blue in many respects. They've had a Democratic Governor, Brian Schweitzer since 2005. In 2008, they had a 50/50 Dem/Rep Assembly, but 2010 was a blood bath for Democrats and now they are outnumbered 68-32 (!) But, Obama did come within 2.5% there in 2008. It's got potential to be purple, but only with very moderate candidates.

[Bukama]

11:52 AM on 02/24/2012

In your opinion, what does a moderate Democrat look like? Which Dem planks does he or she oppose?

I thought Nelson in Neb. went as far blue-dog as you can get, but it didn't help.

Personally, to answer my own question, I think the Dems would steal the rug right out from under the Republicans if they dialed back on defense of abortion on demand, and gun control. The party really has given up on increased gun control, I think. On abortion, Roe v. Wade is not going anywhere, so Dems allowing some pro-lifers into the Dem tent would not really change anything.

There are a handful of fiscally conservative Democrats starting to make some dents in the "tax and spend" image of the party. They are mostly Dem Governors, I think.