VA-2012 President: 51% Obama (D), 43% Santorum (R) (Rasmussen 2/21)

Rasmussen
2/21/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Presidential release, Senate release

Virginia

2012 President
49% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R)
51% Obama (D), 43% Santorum (R)

2012 Senate
46% Allen (R), 46% Kaine (D)

Correction: A previous version of this post incorrectly reported Kaine getting 36 percent

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[Briansfunpage]

12:22 PM on 02/24/2012

The Obama base is not the Democratic base. They are similar, but the Obama one is much broader in demographics.

Also, the moderate/liberal voters are sickened by how O'Donnell/Cucinelli ran as fiscal moderates/conservatives, and then decided to go winger on social issues. This will have a HUGE impact on voting this upcomming November.

Obama will have a insane advantage with female Democrats, & a large one with female independents. He should be able to win the state by a point, or two in the worst case scenario.

[Briansfunpage]

12:17 PM on 02/24/2012

Northern Virginia determines Obama's fate. Romney is not very popular here. I have yet seen one Romney bumper sticker in NOVA. However, there are thousands of cars with Obama 2012 stickers on them. (And many with 2008 on them too).

You will see the Obama team raise the flag in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties and the independent cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, Manassas, and Manassas Park. This is where the 2012 election gets decided this year. (It's very possible to see Obama win Virginia, but lose New Hampshire).

[theocrat]

11:34 PM on 02/23/2012

Half of Virginia wants that racist idiot George Allen back?

[camelias and sweet tea]

12:19 PM on 03/01/2012

Macaca? really

[axt113]

09:30 PM on 02/23/2012

At this point I want Romney to win the nomination, when Obama crushes him, the GOP will go crazy and lurch so far to the right at the Dems will be a majority for the next few decades

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

09:16 PM on 02/23/2012

I have to hand it to Stats, he is the only one left still trying to spin and spin and spin. It's got to be lonely on that island.

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

06:57 PM on 02/23/2012

Wow if Rasmussen is showing the president with this type of lead in VA, then the Repubs have a lot of work to do here. Their path to the WH shrinks if they cannot recapture VA.

[Symanski]

07:31 PM on 02/23/2012

Without VA, they are not going to win in November. Obama can lose it, and still get to 270 in any number of plausible paths. The GOP? It's mathematically possible, but it's not going to happen.

[camelias and sweet tea]

12:20 PM on 03/01/2012

Maybe they can convince Santorum to sell his house and move back to Pa.

[bipartisanshipsailed]

04:28 PM on 02/23/2012

Once again USAToday/Gallup shows why they can't be taken seriously in national until they are closer to the election. This is the same nonsense they pulled in 2008. Claiming that MCcain had a 10pt lead in the election while other poll has it much closed. Now they are claiming that romney is leading nationally get real. And Santorum is tied. LOL

[RussTC3]

05:04 PM on 02/23/2012

Completely agree. The problem is Gallup is perceived by the MSM to be a reliable pollster, thus people take them seriously even when they are consistently the outlier. They are a joke of a pollster and just like in 2008 and 2010, it would do everyone good to ignore them.

[bipartisanshipsailed]

10:16 PM on 02/23/2012

Ands that the thing no lv poll has romney leading and the current lv polls have obama at our near %50 so I wonder who they are are polling

[A New Jersey Farmer]

04:23 PM on 02/23/2012

What this poll tells me is that Virginia is competitive for the Democrats, which will make Romney (assuming) have to spend money and fight for it. Obama can match him until about October 1, then put more resources into North Carolina. Ras also had Obama up in PA today, which the Republicans were also counting on. Nationally he's near 50%. I don't think any GOP operative saw this type of rebound coming. As long as the economy improves, enough independents will stay with Obama to make the Republicans sweat and lose some states they thought they would win. In this election, that's enough to tip the balance.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

04:07 PM on 02/23/2012

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/virginia/election_2012_virginia_senate
Here is the real poll for Kaine Vs Allen. They are tied. I got a little creeped out for a second.

[Wong23]

02:41 PM on 02/23/2012

How is it possible to assure an Obama/Democratic victory in the swing state of Virginia?

Have the Republican dominated legislature pass an extremist and demeaning bill in an attempt to radically reduce reproductive choices for Virginia's women.

That's how.

[ashenthorn]

02:36 PM on 02/23/2012

Despite what Karl Rove says, it's time for Republicans to get plan B ready, and I don't mean the contraceptive pill. Absent some unforeseen event, it will be very difficult for them to pull back independents who've decided they don't like Romney, don't like Gingrich, and are right now deciding they don't like Santorum. I'd say Mitch Daniels is their best shot, because he's somewhat likeable and mild mannered, can appeal to women and moderates, unite conservatives, and hasn't been tainted by this disastrous nominating process which has been nothing but a mad dash to pander to the far right who are only interested in whoever can skewer Obama in the most graphic terms. Such a move at the convention would be the biggest political story in years, and would re-set the moderates who are fleeing back to Obama by the day.

[StatsNo1fan]

03:38 PM on 02/23/2012

" it will be very difficult for them to pull back independents who've decided they don't like Romney"

So, a few weeks ago, independents were all decided that they did not like Obama. Decided so for many months/couple of years. Now they decided they like Obama, don't like Romney. And you assume independents can only move in one direction. Sharply so.

What do you think will happen to independents' sentiment when GOP finally selects a nominee, stops attacking each other and start attacking Obama full time? Whether it happens in March or June?

[RussTC3]

03:39 PM on 02/23/2012

There's a difference, however, the President NEVER lost the support of Moderates. But now they're going stronger for him--along with Independents.

[Lat1]

03:47 PM on 02/23/2012

Stats,

Its ok buddy. Your party is going to fail again, but at least your nominee sings "America The Beautiful" at every campaign stop.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:34 PM on 02/23/2012

Another little bit of info - "highest sources (I read Axelrod or Plouffe)" of B0B0's own campaign stated that "they feel better about their chances in NC than in VA".

Heard that from legit reporters like CNN's Candy Crowley and one other.

[RussTC3]

03:35 PM on 02/23/2012

There are a few errors in your comment, most notably your suggestion that Candy Crowley is a "legit reporter". She's not a reporter, she's not a journalist--she's a talking head just like the vast majority of personalities on cable news.

[StatsNo1fan]

04:02 PM on 02/23/2012

So when she said that a top campaign official told her something, you think there is a high likelihood she was lying?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

04:08 PM on 02/23/2012

I think they should fire Candy Crowley. She interviewed Rick Scott once, and not once did she bring up the drug testing laws or any of his other unpopular policies. She talked with him, like he was Scott BRown and couldn't do no wrong. I had to wonder, who needs Fox news, when you have Crowley.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:21 PM on 02/23/2012

Since B0B0 won VA in 08, the state has voted hard right. GOP win the three statewide elections in 09 by a range of 13.5 to 17.5%, despite B0B0's multiple appearances for Dems there.

In 2010 midterms, GOP won the total House vote by 13.1%, which was about double the margin of GOP's national win. For comparison, GOP won NC total House vote by 9%.

[teron678]

03:16 PM on 02/23/2012

The Voter Demographic was different in 2008 than in 2009 & 2010 ... but 2012 the demographic will be more closer to 2008 than (2009 & 2010) .

You know that Stat so I don't get your post ...

[StatsNo1fan]

03:44 PM on 02/23/2012

Not that many points different. Those are a lot of points to overcome. 2009 was a regularly schedule Gubernatorial Election. Dems lost the Governor's race by 17.5 points. For comparison, Dems won the previous Gubernatorial election by 5.7%. So that's a 23.2% swing to the right from 2005 to 2009. I think Obama is the key reason for it.

Take it from B0's own campaign; they know they're in a lot of trouble in VA.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:14 PM on 02/23/2012

Kaine number is a typo. It's a 46/46 tie with Allen.

[-iVote-]

02:20 PM on 02/23/2012

Yeah, my first thought after seeing 46/36 was "that can't be right."

I've offered to be Pollster's editor for over a year now. The offer still stands, Pollster!

[dpearl]

06:03 PM on 02/23/2012

We can all be Pollster's editors. All you have to do is hit the "send corrections link" at the top of the page and Emily will get the message and fix the typo pretty quickly. I do it all the time and the system works well.

[Lat1]

02:26 PM on 02/23/2012

That makes more sense

[alanrsnipes]

02:08 PM on 02/23/2012

Republicans have only won 1 of the last 5 statewide polls of Virginia. As of today, just like 2008, Obama would win the state.