Mitt Romney Pulls Ahead In Michigan Polls, Holds Wide Lead In Arizona

WASHINGTON -- Despite trailing Rick Santorum in most recent national polls, Mitt Romney appears to have momentum on his side in Michigan and a big lead in Arizona, just four days before both states hold Republican presidential primaries.

In Michigan, two new automated, recorded-voice surveys show Romney with a small, single-digit lead. The two polls, from Rasmussen Reports and Mitchell Research, were both conducted on Thursday, Feb. 23, and are the first to be fielded in Michigan entirely following Wednesday night's nationally televised candidate debate.

The Rasmussen Reports poll gives Romney a six-point lead over Santorum (40 to 34 percent), a reversal from the four-point Romney deficit the firm found just three days earlier. The Mitchell Research poll shows Romney three points ahead of Santorum (36 to 33 percent), a big shift from the nine-point Santorum lead the firm reported one week earlier.

The new findings are slightly better for Romney than the results of five other surveys conducted earlier in the week, which collectively described a very close race between the top two candidates, ranging from a four-point Santorum lead to a two-point Romney advantage.

The HuffPost Pollster's Michigan chart, which attempts to smooth out random variation in the all public polling data, shows that the biggest change over the past week has been an increase in support for Romney. Over the same period, Santorum's numbers have declined only slightly. The chart's trend lines now give Romney a very slight lead over Santorum (36.3 to 34.7 percent), followed by Ron Paul (11.2 percent) and Newt Gingrich (8.0 percent).

Most of the recent polls used an automated, recorded voice to conduct interviews. However, three live-interviewer polls conducted earlier in the week, looked at together, show the same virtual dead heat between Romney and Santorum as the automated surveys fielded at the same time.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, five new surveys conducted this week find Romney ahead of Santorum, with the three most recent giving Romney double-digit leads.

The HuffPost Pollster's Arizona chart shows that although Santorum gained significantly following his victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri earlier in February, his gains have not been sufficient to overtake Romney in Arizona. The trend lines, which may not yet capture a late break to Romney, give him a lead of 38.3 to 30.9 percent over Santorum, followed by Gingrich (14.7 percent) and Paul (8.8 percent).

Can Santorum still prevail in Michigan despite the unfavorable trend? As Nate Silver notes, Santorum has outperformed polling estimates before, particularly in Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. But three of those four contests were caucuses, and all four featured exceptionally low turnouts, which allowed Santorum's energized evangelical Christian base to have an outsized impact.

Michigan and Arizona are both primary states. In 2008, roughly 12 percent of eligible adults voted in Michigan's Republican contest, a turnout twice as big as that in Iowa and more six times larger than those in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. In Arizona in 2008, 13 percent of eligible adults voted. Those larger turnouts make it unlikely that polls are understating Santorum's support in Michigan and Arizona by as much as they did in the earlier caucus states.

Even if the polls are slightly underpredicting Santorum's vote in Michigan and Arizona, should the current trends continue, Romney will probably have the votes to win both states.

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Comments

[janicedow1]

04:45 PM on 02/27/2012

I thought there was a possibility Santorum might take Michigan, but Romney winning the nomination was never in doubt. The Republican establishment would never allow someone like Santorum or Gingrich to win. That said, a scary and disturbing thing about Romney is his failure to win a primary based on good ideas or positive solutions. His only path to victory seems to be running a dirty campaign and smearing his opponent.

[Onlygodknowswhy]

01:55 PM on 02/27/2012

So you republicans start two wars crash the economy and its obama fault.
Give me a break.

[Onlygodknowswhy]

01:49 PM on 02/27/2012

IIf tax cuts worked we wouldn't have had all this debt.

[Onlygodknowswhy]

01:48 PM on 02/27/2012

If it wasn't for the bush economy we wouldn't have had to spend as much money.

[Onlygodknowswhy]

01:43 PM on 02/27/2012

Ya over the last four presidents its been the cons that spent like drunken sailors.
You republicans need to wise up.

[the no spin zone guy]

08:48 AM on 02/27/2012

You liberals really need to WISE UP!

[the no spin zone guy]

08:46 AM on 02/27/2012

You know, I can tell that you liberals don't understand DEBT. How you all continue to support our leader who continues to spend is beyond me!!!

[Millionsix]

08:42 AM on 02/27/2012

Ron Paul for president.

[Joetheplumber1]

07:51 AM on 02/27/2012

Do we want Obamacare to be replaced by Romneycare? Mitt Romney has a different opinion every week, he is a fake. If we really want to take back the White House, we need a candidate who has grassroot support, someone who can be the alternative for Obama. Santorum 2012!!

[the no spin zone guy]

03:57 AM on 02/27/2012

When the BUSH tax cuts were implemented, revenue for our country was POSITIVE! Now, if you liberals want to keep continually supporting our leader FAILED policies, then go right ahead and be dumb.

Just go ahead and support a man who has NO PLAN, except to run our country into a deeper hole of DEBT!!

[svasol]

12:28 AM on 02/27/2012

Let's see the Repugs can either turn the economy over to a the hedge fund manager or turn the executive branch over a rabid evangelist....

We might be better with the game show host or the reality television star.

[larryandy]

03:39 PM on 02/26/2012

People better wake up, this political suicide now being condutcted is honey to the liberals. Best possible event would quickly, very quickly, swollow pride and prejudice, join togther now, candidates meet together and come up with a presentation of Pres. Vice, Sec. of Sate, of Interior, of Sec. of Defense, etc. All are good people with great potential as a team, together could save America, battling, blaming, disparging and degrading each other destroys America. I could stand behind any one of these candidates gladly in the end, may prefer a first choice but in the end, any one is so advanced over the current that only good and hope comes from the last choice of the current Republican candidates. Divide and conqueor, guess what, we are doomed at this rate.

[TJ25]

03:23 PM on 02/26/2012

We don't want the government in every facet of our lives and yet we want them to create jobs, furnish health insurance, control corporations, even to be involved in something as personal as our sex life. These are not the government's responsibility. We say that the government ALLOWS corporations to outsource our jobs. It's true that one of biggest problems in America is corporate outsourcing and allowing the insourcing of a new cheaper work force. But we also believe in free enterprise. It doesn't work both ways. This government since its conception has been vulnerable to corruption. One solution that may help. We the people need to take matters into our own hands. Simply don't support anything or anyone that you know insources or outsources jobs. Just about everything we purchase comes from outside of America now days. I know a lot of you fill it will effect the world economy and your right. If we as Americans don't want to end up like the rest of the world, we shouldn't allow being exploited by the rest of the world and our own government. I'm not talking about living on an island. This country didn't become great by being isolated. There's a difference between isolation and sovereignty. We must not enable these money grubbing power hungry entities to rule over our government and in turn, us. We the people should boycott them and put sanctions on them. Don’t leave it to this corruptible government.

[TJ25]

03:08 PM on 02/26/2012

Ron Paul makes perfect sense. Have you noticed how the rest of them have suddenly begun to adapt his points of view? I really believe Obama will win no matter what. And why not? The GOP candidates are no better. Ron Paul is the only one that would change things but people aren't going to let go of the government cheese. The powers that be have their man and that's all there is to it. All I can say is I wish it was POWER TO THE PEOPLE!

[Bukama]

11:15 AM on 02/28/2012

Paul is coming in third in MI. It's complicated, but I believe he will get some delegates. This is Paul's hope - to get enough delegates that he can have an impact on the Republican platform. Paul has some good ideas that should be incorporated into the platform, and if he is on board with the ultimate nominee, he will help the Republican pick up a bigger minority of the youth vote. It will also pave the way for the further rise of his son Rand Paul in Republican politics. We saw Romney and Paul work together against Santorum in the last debate - I think they can work together well.

[fluteprincess]

02:58 PM on 02/26/2012

I like Santorum better. I don't think I would vote for Romney. Quite frankly though, there's no one out there at the moment that I'd want to vote for anyway. From any party.

[shipfixr]

03:07 PM on 02/26/2012

A problem a lot of us are starting to have.