The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For March 23, 2012

But as important as the win in Illinois was for cementing Team Romney's delegate realities, the most critical turn in the race wouldn't come until Wednesday, when Jeb Bush -- a critical member of the still-dreamed about group of GOP contenders that never were -- offered Mitt Romney his endorsement, and bestowed a new blessing from the Republican establishment. Bush personally delivered the news to Romney and his trusted aide, Eric Fehrnstrom.

"Well, Jeb, we're very glad to have your support! Ha. Ha." said Romney. "I think your endorsement could be a real GAME CHANGE."

"What are you doing there?" a perplexed Bush asked.

"What do you mean?"

"The way you said 'Game Change,' right there, like you were italicizing it, or something?"

"Oh!" said Romney, "That was nothing. Ha."

"And then you did, like, this take to an imaginary camera, or something?"

"Ha. Don't worry about it, Jeb!" Romney took a thoughtful pause. "Jeb Bush, eh? Is that French-Canadian, or something?"

"Not really," replied Bush. "I think we're from Texas? Anyway, I wanted you to see the draft of the statement I'll be giving out concerning this endorsement."

Fehrnstrom looked it over, and was immediately hit in his psychic solar plexus by what he read.

"I hate to be a nudge, here, Jeb. But the language, here ..." Ferhnstrom trailed off.

"What's wrong with it?" asked Bush.

Fehrnstrom cleared his throat and dove in. "Well, it's not too terribly enthusiastic, is it? You talk about how it's time to unify the party and come together around -- and I quote -- 'the guy who is basically going to win, anyway.'"

"I think that if you read on, you'll see I'm very full-throated in support for your candidate," countered Bush.

"Well, I'll tell you, Jeb, I'm reading further down, and I come to this section which you've titled, 'Making The Best Of It.'"

"Right! See. I call your candidate 'the best.'"

"And there's the way you keep saying 'your candidate,' that sort of troubles me," Fehrnstrom said, adding, "And I see the second page is just ten paragraphs of how great a vice president Marco Rubio would be."

"Gotta think about the long game, Eric."

"It's just that you seem boundlessly enthusiastic about Marco, and not so much into Mitt."

"Eric, I promise you, I am very excited about this endorsement."

"Jeb, everywhere Marco Rubio's name appears in your draft, it's written in red ink," Fehrnstrom said, pointedly. "And instead of the o's in his name, you've drawn hearts."

"I think you're reading into it," Jeb replied.

At this point, Romney interjected. "Let's not turn this into a thing, Eric. Here let me see it." Fehrnstrom handed him the draft statement, which Mitt hefted in the air and studied meticulously.

"Jeb," Romney enthused, "This is great. Just the right weight for an endorsement. We thank you."

"I'm glad to hear it," said Bush, relieved. "And look, guys, you can keep your own counsel on who your running mate will be. I just think that Marco is a solid conservative, a good spokesman for the party, and he could be a real game change for your ticket."

Romney immediately froze, mugging for an unseen eye offstage.

"You're doing it again."

The above passage, which we have imagined for "Game Change 2: The Changening" (the sequel to "Game Change," a book of invented scenes about the 2008 campaign), perfectly encapsulates the state of the race this week. Mitt Romney continues to win the slog through the primaries, and continues to accrue the delegates necessary to win the nomination.

But even as Romney wends his way to almost certain triumph, his favorable ratings continue to submerge. He's acceptable, but not particularly well-liked. The brain likes his odds in November, but the heart can't get very pitter-pattery about it. And Jeb's endorsement sort of underscores this. What reason does he cite for endorsing Romney? He leads with this: "Primary elections have been held in thirty-four states." Translation: "This is pretty much going to happen, so, meh ... I guess."

Meanwhile, the candidate that appeals most to the conservative heart, Rick Santorum, may be growing in the estimation of voters, but -- well ... primary elections have been held in thirty-four states, you know? Santorum may have peaked at the right time to become Romney's main co-competitor, but it doesn't look like he did it early enough to actually win. With time running out and opportunities drying up, the Santorum campaign released its own version of delegate math in an effort to convince the media of his viability. But it was pretty clear, upon a cursory examination, that the Santorum team's logic was mostly constructed from gossamer and the daydreams of kittens.

A lot of what could undermine Santorum's reasoning played out in Missouri, where Mitt Romney's alliance with Ron Paul managed to rob Santorum of delegates that he would have liked to have out of a state he won. But Santorum's cash-strapped campaign had trouble competing with Romney and Paul's well-oiled machines. And yet! The mere fact that Romney needed help from Paul only proved what Santorum's been saying all along -- that Romney's a weak candidate who's growing weaker and who can't earn the nomination on his own merits.

But there's nothing to be done but look ahead. Romney sees a slew of eminently winnable states on April 24th as his next best chance to clear the race of the dead weight. Santorum looks ahead to a more immediate contest in Louisiana, where he hopes a big popular vote win will play louder than an almost certain tiny share of the delegates. And Newt Gingrich? He's looking all the way ahead to Tampa, where he hopes he can tear everyone's hopes asunder with his knack for sowing discord. That's where we are.

Elsewhere, Gingrich tried to feud with a film star, Gary Johnson outlined some bold promises, Rick Santorum got rooked by the media, a pair of long-shots won consolation prizes in Puerto Rico, and the Romney camp said something it might regret -- and we're not referring to "Etch a Sketch." For all your campaign news and notes, please feel free to enter the Speculatron for the week of March 23, 2012.

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Mitt Romney

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Mitt Romney's week began with some big primary victories, first in Puerto Rico, and then in Illinois --- where he blew out the upset-minded Rick Santorum. Once again, he had seized the mantle of inevitability and bent the media narrative back into his favor. Now...all he had to do was NOT MESS THIS UP and everything would be fine and -- wait! What is top Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom saying over there? Hopefully not something inexplicably stupid!

JOHN FUGELSANG: Good morning, sir. It's fair to say that John McCain was considerably a more moderate candidate than the ones that Governor Romney faces now. Is there a concern that the pressure from Santorum and Gingrich might force the governor to attach so far to the right it would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election? FEHRNSTROM: Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch a Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and we start all over again.

And with that, the week of Etch a Sketch began. And with this excellent metaphor for Romney's well-known ability to switch his positions at a moment's notice and demonstrate his fungible convictions on command, his opponents seized on it. The DNC put out a video ridiculing him. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum immediately began waving Etch a Sketches around. Fehrnstrom's head was called for. And Romney's campaign was forced to put out a lame walkback that no one really believed. Evan McMorris-Santoro noted that this was sort of a trend -- Romney following up big primary wins with odd statements and unforced errors that helped steel the hopes of his opponents. And Jonathan Chait cited Fehrnstrom's gaffe as another example of the Romney campaign's inability to "hide its cynicism." Your Speculatron, however, was not convinced that the Etch a Sketch moment, or Romney's failure to keep his cynical take on the election under wraps, was going to be too terribly costly. On that score, there was some agreement. Kevin Drum noted that most of conservativeland was pretty mute on the matter:

Here's the interesting thing about this comment. It's provoked loads of mockery from liberals. It's provoked a bunch of attacks from the other candidates. But among the conservative commentariat, it's mostly just been sighs. I haven't seen much outrage along the lines of "This just goes to show what a fake Romney is." It's mostly been disbelief that Fehrnstrom could say something so dumb; wan defenses that he wasn't really saying anything we didn't know already; and explanations that obviously Fehrnstrom was talking about campaign mechanics, not issues.

And as far as Romney gaffes go, Etch a Sketch may not have been the worst. Some time after Fehrnstrom's remarks took over the world, Romney appeared at a town hall meeting in Maryland, where he praised the Bush-era bailouts that are largely hated in conservative circles. Chait remarked:

[T]he Wall Street bailout is actually a huge political liability for Obama because it's incredibly unpopular and most Americans think Obama, not Bush, signed it. So having Romney run around reminding people that Bush bailed out Wall Street is actually Obama's prayer answered.

Jamelle Bouie added his own history-backed historical skepticism:

If the economy continues to improve, then the next best option for Romney--shorting of abandoning an economic message altogether--is to minimize the degree to which President Obama is responsible for the recovery, or anything else. This is something of a time-honored strategy for challengers who find themselves in unfavorable territory. In 1996, for example, Bob Dole gave Ronald Reagan credit for the improving economy... [...] Of course, as Dole demonstrates, while other candidates have tried this strategy, it hasn't ever worked. If the economy sees substantial improvement this year, voters will reward the president with another term, regardless of how much Romney tries to minimize Obama's role in the recovery.

This is basically what Romney does now: he takes the good and takes the bad and eats them both and those are the facts of life in the 2012 primary. He's getting more super PAC support, but he's earning more scrutiny. He received Jeb Bush's endorsement, but it was hardly glowing -- more like, "Okay, since this guy is going to win, I'mma get behind him." (It also may have come with a price tag, in that Jeb Bush seems to be more enthusiastic about Marco Rubio becoming Vice President than he is about Romney. And while Romney continues to bring more self-described conservatives to his side (as well as beating away a largely apathetic Tea Party threat to "stop" him), and has the enthusiastic support of Matt Drudge, significant holes in his support remain. Romney remains weak with evangelicals, is staring into a cavernous gender gap, and he's still not done enough to keep Bill Kristol from going all emo. But Romney's path to 1,144 delegates is nevertheless the only one left that makes much sense. So he remains in attack mode. He's been hitting Rick Santorum for being the unwitting ally of Obama. And he's attacking Obama as well -- though it's unclear what good he's doing by reminding everybody that Obama's spent copious amounts of time studying the Constitution. More importantly, Romney is adapting to the changing circumstances in the nation's economic situation. As Kevin Drum wrote: "Instead of the economy sucks and it's Obama's fault, it had morphed into the economy's recovering but it would be recovering even faster if not for Obama." This is probably his best defense against Santorum at the moment, as Santorum has already positioned himself as the conservative choice in an America that's headed toward recovery. Of course, Romney will probably have to leave out a portion of that post-recovery argument that Newt Gingrich has made the centerpiece of his campaign -- the high price of gas. Newt can get away with hammering on that (and making ridiculous promises about the low prices he'd deliver) -- but it's a third rail for Romney, who has encouraged high gas prices (and raised the gas tax himself to get them).

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Mitt Romney's week began with some big primary victories, first in Puerto Rico, and then in Illinois --- where he blew out the upset-minded Rick Santorum. Once again, he had seized the mantle of inevitability and bent the media narrative back into his favor. Now...all he had to do was NOT MESS THIS UP and everything would be fine and -- wait! What is top Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom saying over there? Hopefully not something inexplicably stupid!

JOHN FUGELSANG: Good morning, sir. It's fair to say that John McCain was considerably a more moderate candidate than the ones that Governor Romney faces now. Is there a concern that the pressure from Santorum and Gingrich might force the governor to attach so far to the right it would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?

FEHRNSTROM: Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch a Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and we start all over again.

And with that, the week of Etch a Sketch began. And with this excellent metaphor for Romney's well-known ability to switch his positions at a moment's notice and demonstrate his fungible convictions on command, his opponents seized on it. The DNC put out a video ridiculing him. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum immediately began waving Etch a Sketches around. Fehrnstrom's head was called for. And Romney's campaign was forced to put out a lame walkback that no one really believed.

Evan McMorris-Santoro noted that this was sort of a trend -- Romney following up big primary wins with odd statements and unforced errors that he... more

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Michigan Joe said on 24 Saturday 2012 am31 5:52 am: The excitement the old Republican Party has fallen flat on the ears of the public. They still have the image of the Bush era but this time it gets uglier. The public just doesn't see the wisdom that the the "New Third World Republican Party" has been screaming out. They have taken aim at those that could elect them and one sector of the public has been targeted each and every week. First it was the seniors and threatening Medicare and Social Security, and then the immigrants, and the entire middle class and most recently they have started a "War on Women" saying that women have no right to decide what is best for their health and their bodies alienating virtually every member of our society. The people are hearing their messages and they aren't happy. The GOP is helping seal the lid on their coffin.

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Fading Fast In It To Win It

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Comments

[ProgressivesLoveAmerica]

06:23 PM on 03/26/2012

Sorry folks, but the only Republican I'll vote for president this year is Barack Obama (R).

He's the only reasonable one in the crowd.

[mzkitti]

08:41 PM on 03/24/2012

http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/03/10569606-this-week-in-god

While we were going about our business of working and raising our families... someone left the doors open at the mental institutions and we are about to be overwhelmed.
We knew they were out there but we never ever thought there were so many of them.

[calypso54]

05:47 PM on 03/24/2012

I know this is off topic, but you all might want to look into ALEC. This is the stealth unit of the Rep. party. Note the players and be afraid..be very afraid! This is what we have to watch out for. A Dem.president surrounded by T-baggers in federal, state and local office is very scary. Keep your eyes on the ALEC masters of the dark arts!!!

[cocoabisq]

08:23 PM on 03/24/2012

I just did, and you are right.. it's really scary..
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=ALEC_Politicians

[dmbraddy]

05:32 PM on 03/24/2012

History has proven supply-side economics, with its twin requirements for cutting taxes on the rich and dangerously irresponsible deregulation, is an unmitigated disaster, but it's the only story Republicans have and they're sticking with it.

This leaves Republicans in a quandary over an acceptable presidential nominee, because the price of admission is checking history, facts, logic, and reason at the door. One wonders what's left to campaign on when not even the slightest deviation from received doctrine is permitted and every candidate is a zombie clone of an idealized cartoon of Saint Reagan?

The GOP is not going to find a conservative savior by requiring ever more strict adherence to, or at least pandering to, a radical ideology divorced from reason and best science. The GOP is haunted by the ghost of President Ronald Reagan. They don't just need better candidates; they need an exorcism.

http://www.panderingpoliticians.com/2012/03/ghost-of-ronald-reagan.html

[Sbrthnkr]

03:27 PM on 03/24/2012

Wow!

[Vikingdave]

02:00 PM on 03/24/2012

The republican't clown car rolls into Louisiana
.http://0.tqn.com/d/politicalhumor/1/7/2/T/4/Anybody-But-Romney.jpg
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/politicalcartoons/ig/Political-Cartoons/Etch-A-Sketch-Romney.htm
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/politicalcartoons/ig/Political-Cartoons/Mr-Etch-A-Sketch-vs-Mr--Etched-in-Stone.htm
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/politicalcartoons/ig/Political-Cartoons/Party-Symbols.17QQ.htm
http://0.tqn.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/a/S/4/War-on-Women.jpg
http://0.tqn.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/b/S/4/Ladies-Night.jpg
http://0.tqn.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/p/S/4/Tough-Crowd.jpg

[zmanusmc]

12:49 PM on 03/24/2012

Solyndra
Fast and Furious Gun running
Attack on Religious institutions
Ignoring the Constitution
Executive Order - Detention of Civilians by Military
MFGlobal
Goldman Sachs
Foreclosur­­­es
4 years of Trillion $$ deficits
Dodd/Frank
Keystone Pipeline
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae
Obamacare
Dream Act
Cap and Tax
Unemployme­­nt rate
52 czars
GE
Holder/Vot­­­­ing Intimidati­­­­on by Black Panthers
LightSquar­­­­ed
Immelt / Jobs czar
Fisker
Transparen­­­cy, lack of
Gitmo
Insider Trading
$16 Trillio­­­n debt
Iran nukes
Afghanistan
$5 gasoline
food prices
and the beat goes on .... remember to vote 2012

[larmarch5]

01:03 PM on 03/24/2012

Bush has been out of office for two and a quarter years. Why do you insist on bringing up all his roadtrip into the ditch again and again?

[zmanusmc]

01:11 PM on 03/24/2012

Actually, Obama has been President for THREE and a quarter years and he has a record of failure to run on now.

[Tommygun264]

01:13 PM on 03/24/2012

Poor thing, reduced to simply regurgitating right wing keywords & catch-phrases, naming problems that are either the result of failed Bush/Cheney regime policies, some outright fabrications and others that have absolutely nothing to do with the current President, all in yet another FAILED attempt to distract from the FACT that the Romneybot's flunky slipped up and spilled the beans that the Romneybot will say anything and everything to get elected, then forget it all as soon as he wins. If only you could clear your little mind as easily as the Romneybot resets its core beliefs.

[zmanusmc]

01:41 PM on 03/24/2012

All Obama's failed energy, foreign, domestic, financial, and leadership failures. Consumers will vote him OUT.

[a horde of rand]

12:41 PM on 03/24/2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Dgc6v2Ppfc for those wondering where the rhyming headline came from.

[a horde of rand]

12:40 PM on 03/24/2012

"This is our story. It's a short one, but it's a hard, harsh read. Between the lines, a little aching need." Those are the first lines from the song 'Our Story' by The Judybats. I'd recognize it anywhere. Who thought to use it as the headline? Clever.

[tampajohn]

12:20 PM on 03/24/2012

My head hurts - Is it November yet. Please God - make it stop.

[den1953]

01:53 PM on 03/24/2012

Not to worry Sir etch a Mitt is not done being reset?

[tampajohn]

04:13 PM on 03/24/2012

Sir Etch a Mitt needs to be returned from wherever he was cloned and America get its integrity back

[SocratesSiddhartha]

12:11 PM on 03/24/2012

"Jeb, everywhere Marco Rubio's name appears in your draft, it's written in red ink," Fehrnstrom said, pointedly. "And instead of the o's in his name, you've drawn hearts."
"I think you're reading into it," Jeb replied.

ROFL!!! probably more truth there than anyone would care to admit.

[cornel]

12:08 PM on 03/24/2012

The real question is : Is Willard a Shapeshifter ? If yes, then etch-a-sketch is just a nice way to put it

[treyfaison]

12:27 PM on 03/24/2012

No, are you daft? That would be silly putty.

[den1953]

01:55 PM on 03/24/2012

To bad Mitt Romney's dog Shamus wasn't a shape shifter he could have became a bird and flew off Romney's roof of his car?

[Dadeo]

11:54 AM on 03/24/2012

John Fugelsang, wasn't he the host on Americas Funniest Videos? I'd like to see the video when he used the whole tube of Grecian on his hair. I'll bet it's a riot.

[larmarch5]

01:09 PM on 03/24/2012

Fugelsang is the son of a former nun and former Franciscan Brother.

[Tommygun264]

01:16 PM on 03/24/2012

When you can't win on the issues, sling mud and make s**t up. Baggers be desperate.

[me again]

11:48 AM on 03/24/2012

I'm still trying to figure out why Mitt is running. Nothing compelling in any of his messages.

[Try the truth]

12:01 PM on 03/24/2012

He wants to be President. He feels a person of his "station" deserves to be in charge! He doesn't need a message, we should just be honored he would do it. (sarcasm)

[DevonTexas]

12:03 PM on 03/24/2012

well done. and you're right.

[dahlia97]

12:23 PM on 03/24/2012

I agree.
I don't seem him offering anything to America.
It crossed my mind that he wants to be prez
so he can insure he and his buddies
continue to get THEIR entitlements.

[Blue Pup in PHX]

12:03 PM on 03/24/2012

...ummm, 'cause there was nothing left for him to buy.....?

[Try the truth]

12:24 PM on 03/24/2012

I think it's more that he feels he's entitled to the position!

[Deruist]

11:42 AM on 03/24/2012

The GOP has declined into a party of unbridled extremes, hoping their convention can organize the factions into a cohesive machine. Yeah, good luck with that.

[FauxNewsAnalyst]

11:51 AM on 03/24/2012

Don't underestimate the unifying power of racism in the U.S.

[callinguonit]

11:55 AM on 03/24/2012

Unfortunately all...too..true

[Blue Pup in PHX]

12:04 PM on 03/24/2012

hate and fear .... the foundational planks of the GOtP