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Consumer Spending Grows Faster Than Paychecks

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER 03/30/12 04:41 PM ET AP

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending rose 0.8 percent in February despite sluggish income growth.

WASHINGTON — U.S. consumers boosted their spending in February by the most in seven months, raising expectations for stronger growth at the start of the year.

Americans spent more even as their income barely grew. To make up the difference, many saved less.

Consumer spending rose 0.8 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Friday. The biggest increase since July coincided with the best three-month hiring stretch in two years.

The jump in consumer spending helped Wall Street close out its best first quarter since 1998. More spending also led economists to upwardly revise their economic growth estimates for the January-March quarter.

Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, now expects annual growth for the first quarter to be around 2.5 percent, compared with earlier estimates of about 2 percent. Consumer spending drives roughly 70 percent of economic activity.

Some of the higher spending last month reflected surging gas prices. But consumers spent more on other goods and services, too. After excluding inflation, which was due mainly to gas prices, spending rose a solid 0.5 percent.

Many Americans are spending more freely after the economy added an average of 245,000 jobs a month from December through February. That's lowered the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, the lowest in three years. Most economists expect similar job growth in March.

Still, the hiring gains have not resulted in bigger paychecks for most people. Income grew just 0.2 percent last month, matching January's weak increase. And when taking inflation into account, income after taxes fell for a second straight month.

Most consumers spent more of what they earned. The saving rate dropped to 3.7 percent of after-tax income in February. That was the lowest level since August 2009 and a full percentage point lower than all of last year.

Americans are also taking on more debt. Consumer borrowing increased from November through January by the most in a decade for a three-month period. Yet the increases were driven almost entirely by auto and student loans. Credit card debt decreased in January and remains well below pre-recession levels.

Dales cautioned that at some point, consumers won't be able to draw further on their savings. Further job gains are needed to boost consumers' income.

Many people are more confident in the economy, despite stagnant wages and higher gas prices. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey index rose this month to 76.2 – its highest level since February 2011.

"Consumer confidence is being driven by the improvement in the labor market," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

So far, more robust hiring has yet to lift growth. The economy grew at an annual rate of 3 percent in the October-December quarter and most analysts expect that pace slowed in the January-March quarter.

Economists expect growth to rebound later this year as further hiring lifts the economy. The spending increase in February follows other data showing that may already be under way.

Americans stepped up spending on retail goods in February, the government said earlier in the month. Consumers bought more autos, clothes and appliances. They also paid higher prices for gas.

On Friday, the national average price for a gallon of gas was $3.92, according to AAA. In 11 states, the price is more than $4 per gallon.

Higher gas prices could eventually slow growth by causing some people to cut spending on other goods, from appliances and furniture to electronics and vacations. Gasoline purchases provide less benefit for the U.S. economy because about half of the revenue flows to oil-exporting nations, though U.S. oil companies and gasoline retailers also benefit.

"The bad news is that pump prices will start approaching the $4.15 - $4.20 per gallon range by Memorial Day," said Chris G. Christopher Jr., senior economist at IHS Global Insight. "The good news is that a relatively stronger job and stock market are assisting in holding up consumer spending and confidence."

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WASHINGTON — U.S. consumers boosted their spending in February by the most in seven months, raising expectations for stronger growth at the start of the year. Americans spent more even as their...
WASHINGTON — U.S. consumers boosted their spending in February by the most in seven months, raising expectations for stronger growth at the start of the year. Americans spent more even as their...
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09:10 AM on 04/02/2012
The real fact is, everything went up - food, gas, clothing, etc. Yes, we spent more for just the basics. Inflation is a lot higher than the Fed wants to admit.
02:00 AM on 04/02/2012
"The sun will come out tomorrow. Bet your bottom dollar, there'll be sun!"

One has to admire the eternal optimism of some Americans. You would think that given the financial and economic upheavals of the past several years they would be doubling down on savings and avoiding debt at all but the most extreme cost. But no, long as one has employment and it *seems* steady that new home or car seems like a good idea.
10:45 AM on 03/31/2012
I hat to say this but I predict a lot of Americans will default on loans and mortgages. This is sad because people basically earn the same or even less these days but cost of living goes up mainly due to the increase in oil/gas prices prompted by Iran and the Middle East situation. People need to start creating additional sources of income like I did - it really helps get through the month.
bipolarbears60
common sense isn't so common
03:22 AM on 03/31/2012
How much of this can be attributed to people who e-filed a tax return in which they have already received a refund? "Consumer spending rose 0.8 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Friday." " Credit card debt decreased in January and remains well below pre-recession levels."

That was my first thought.
08:51 AM on 03/31/2012
I thought the same exact thing. This article in no way implies that people are using more credit/plastic, as you said, it dropped. I got a refund in February and did go out and buy a few things for the household. Although I did put most in savings, I spent a few hundred bucks on household goods/clothing and got some car repairs done we had been putting off. I'm sure many people did the same.

Now it's back to our usual austerity.
bipolarbears60
common sense isn't so common
09:17 AM on 03/31/2012
Ditto
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yo drewski
02:34 AM on 03/31/2012
Americans buying because they can...and because they've put it off for so long. That doesn't mean they/we can afford it--it just means ppl got into the store and found a legal way to take away merchandise when they didn't have the net worth to pay for it in the immediate moment. Of course it's not good--it's desperation spending. I would bet that most people spending more than they earn are damn well aware of it. Some do it because they're lemmings, so do it because the kid needs diapers (and you can't re-use Pampers or Huggies), and some do it for reasons in between. But that's our culture, and before anybody wants to get all righteous, please remember that no other economy on the planet relies on consumer spending as much as the US does. We've spent ourselves onto this hamster wheel and we don't know how to get off.
NoBlueDogs
FIGHT Offshoring!!!
01:48 AM on 03/31/2012
Uh oh, here we go again.
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livingbettertherapy
Counselor, Therapist, Strategic Intervention
10:52 PM on 03/30/2012
Imagine a business where millions of people hand you money they can't afford to spend and you hand them back absolutely nothing while many of their neighbors go hungry. That's not the American dream it's the American lottery and it's happening right now.
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TimeMaster
I see A, You see B, C is Correct
08:11 PM on 03/30/2012
Consumers need another wakeup call:
Alarm 1: Debt is Bad, Saving is Good.
Alarm 2: Buy what you need all the time, not what you want most of the time.
Miss the 2nd alarm and here comes Mr. Recession to kick you in the .... end.
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jamieson44
06:11 PM on 03/30/2012
Will we ever learn? I certainly see a repeat of 2007. It is a vicious circle....we need growth to stabilize the economy, and of course we need people to buy the products. They go into debt to buy these things and ultimately go bankrupt. Part of the dilemma is we are an impatient lot and want to have the newest products NOW. Gotta impress our friends with the the latest and greatest. Our insecurities are showing.
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Reno Fickler
Head Lifeguard/Dead Sea Marina
06:05 PM on 03/30/2012
When the price of virtually everything people buy goes up, to buy the same things you bought last quarter you HAVE to spend more money. That's accomplished by using that thing called "plastic".
If you really want to know the truth about American finances, ask the govt to refigure all the so called "averages" but leave out 1% of the people. And you know damn well which 1% I'm talking about.
Example----Take a guy who has NO income and a guy who makes a billion $ a year.
Their "average income" is $500,000,000 per annum. I'll guarantee you the 'poor' guy's living conditions aren't up to "average".
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eilish
Life ain't like a box of chocolates
04:11 PM on 03/30/2012
Every month I strike things off my list that I can no longer afford and yet the amounts I have to spend on utilities, gas, & groceries just continue to rise, rise, rise. I don't go into debt but the piddly amount I have to save is going to have to take a hit.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
04:54 PM on 03/30/2012
I carry four U6 adult relatives on my paycheck, and I sure feel the load!!! Saving is only to ensure that i have enough on hand when the bill arrives.
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GeorgeWashJeffe
Patriot Blogger
03:47 PM on 03/30/2012
should have given the 700 billion to the people not the banks. 300 million people with about $350,000 each would have stimulated the economy into overdrive. Instead here we are 3 years later and nobody has any money. Or how about corporations who benefited the most from increased productivity during the past 20 years give the workers a decent raise
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Reno Fickler
Head Lifeguard/Dead Sea Marina
06:17 PM on 03/30/2012
I think you need to do what those GPS things to do when they "recalculate"
700 billion divided by 300 million is $2,333 and change. At least that was the answer I got using long division like I learned how to do in the 1950s. My calculator doesn't have that many zeroes on it so I had to use pencil and paper.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
06:23 PM on 03/30/2012
Maybe he was thinking the British Billion, which is equal to our Trillion.
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GeorgeWashJeffe
Patriot Blogger
06:40 PM on 03/30/2012
My math may be incorrect but my premise is on target. I admire your tenacity to do the math via long division very cool!
03:45 PM on 03/30/2012
Ain't this the REPUBLICAN way of life?
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kcwookie
Well behaved workers seldom prosper.
03:10 PM on 03/30/2012
Congress needs to do something for the job creators...not the rich people they take their marching orders from. The rich are not the job creators and need to be taxed. The real job creators are the vast majority of the shrinking middle class and growing numbers of poor.

If you really want to improve the economy, change the minimum business tax rate to 90% and allow only two deductions. First is wages and benefits over $35,000 per DOMESTIC employee. Cap that deduction at $250,000 per domestic employee. The benefit would be for wages and benefits, not bonuses. The second is to cap current business deductions at 30% of gross income. There would be no benefit for hiring foreign employees, and you ability to deduct the costs of hiring foreign companies would be limited.

If that happened, you would see hiring of full time employees with good wage and benefit packages that could spend money to raise the economy. It would not effect prices, because the more companies made, the more they would have to hire to get the best tax breaks.

One other thing that would have to be done is to allow small businesses that are sole proprietorships to be exempt from hiring and deduction caps for the first $200K of gross sales. That way you don't hammer small (really small) business.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
03:39 PM on 03/30/2012
These sound like a great start on fixing the economy. We'll never see them be put into practice.
03:10 PM on 03/30/2012
So? You say this as if it isn't the pattern for the last thirty years. It costs more to survive than most people make, so they resort to credit to make up the difference. Plus, these inflation statistics haven't reflected reality since the Reaganistas changed the formula to hide the results of their financial schemes. The Dems. haven't really done anything to help, BTW, since they too have profitted greatly from the Great Rip-Off of the middle class.
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GeorgeWashJeffe
Patriot Blogger
03:49 PM on 03/30/2012
Great point. It seems to me instead of giving raises to the employees, corporations went into the loan business and loaned people the money to maintain their lifestyles.
Probably a better way to say it but I hope you get what I am saying
04:24 PM on 03/30/2012
Yeah. Since the same corporations own so many different businesses this could be truthfully compared to a giant version of the company store.