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UK Economy Falls Into Recession For First Time Since 2009

By ROBERT BARR 04/25/12 05:57 AM ET AP

England Recession

LONDON -- Britain's economy has fallen back into recession for the first time since 2009 after official figures Wednesday showed that it unexpectedly contracted during the first three months of the year.

The Office for National Statistics said economic output as measured by gross domestic product fell by 0.2 percent in the first three months of the year from the previous quarter. The first quarter drop follows the 0.3 percent decline recorded in the last quarter of 2011 and means Britain has returned to recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth are required for a country to be officially deemed to be in recession.

The first quarter decline was unexpected – the consensus in the markets was that the British economy eked out growth, albeit of a modest 0.1 percent.

"The government and the Bank of England needed a sharp shock. They just got it," said Marcus Bullus, trading director at MB Capital in London.

Treasury chief George Osborne said the debt crisis afflicting the 17-country eurozone has impeded Britain's recovery, but he said he would stick to his "credible plan" to cut the country's budget deficit.

A more detailed look at the first quarter figures showed that a 0.1 percent in Britain's big services sector was not enough to offset a 3 percent in construction and a 0.4 percent in production industries including manufacturing and energy production.

Though there have been some concerns about the way construction output in particular is measured, Vicky Redwood, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics said she would not dismiss the official data.

"Even if the underlying picture is stronger than the official GDP figures show, there is no guarantee that the recent pickup will continue," Redwood said. "Indeed, we remain comfortable with our view that GDP will contract by about 0.5 percent this year."

Her prediction contrasts with the government's expectation for 0.8 percent growth this year.

Other analysts pointed to survey data which indicated that the economy was more robust than the official GDP figure shows. Wednesday's figures are subject to revision.

"Along with the Bank of England and many other analysts, we are hugely skeptical about the first-quarter GDP data showing contraction of 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter," said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight.

"The economy is undeniably still in a hard place, but the evidence overall suggests that it managed to achieve modest expansion in the first quarter," Archer said.

Britain has experienced a fitful recovery since a deep, 18-month recession ended in the last quarter of 2009 – last year, growth was negative in two of the four quarter.

While the economy is struggling, inflation, at 3.5 percent, remains stubbornly above the Bank of England's 2 percent target, though it has come down from a peak of 5.2 percent.

And unemployment remains near its highest level since the mid 1990s, even though the rate fell in the three months ending in February to 8.3 percent from 8.4 percent.

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LONDON -- Britain's economy has fallen back into recession for the first time since 2009 after official figures Wednesday showed that it unexpectedly contracted during the first three months of the ye...
LONDON -- Britain's economy has fallen back into recession for the first time since 2009 after official figures Wednesday showed that it unexpectedly contracted during the first three months of the ye...
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planetjeffy
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
10:30 PM on 04/25/2012
Europe's budget cuts and austerity plans are exactly what the Republicans are pushing.
For Britain and the rest of Europe...this economic strategy is pushing their economy into the toilet....again.

Tax cuts and budget cuts do not create jobs, no matter how many times the Republican party lies.
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06:13 PM on 04/25/2012
It can happen again here.
05:08 PM on 04/25/2012
History has proven over and over that when taxes are lowered, job creation stops and/or stalls. That is why Bush was such a huge huge failure. It could be that the wealthy never did create jobs, a falsehood repeated over and over by the GOP. We can't go down that path ever again. Save the nation and vote a STRAIGHT Democratic ticket in November.
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06:13 PM on 04/25/2012
Really, its "proven"? Where? Show us Einstein.
06:21 PM on 04/25/2012
Since you need help in finding info, trust Google for starters then reread Reagans era, and then reread history from Clinton's era. If you need more info, just ask.
ash11111
"Yolo" is "Carpe Diem" for stupid people
04:41 PM on 04/25/2012
Thats what Krugman has been saying all along...
05:16 PM on 04/25/2012
Once again Krugman is our Cassandra of the modern age: Always right and never listened to.

Our world is being run by knaves and fools who having embarked on a ruinous course, keep stumbling over reality and then just pick themselves up, dust themselves off and keep right on going and the American Right is chomping at the bit to undo the little bit of good Obama has done and join Europe on their march to folly.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
doctor pangloss
the best of all possible worlds
04:35 PM on 04/25/2012
If the rest of Europe follows the UK then the U.S.A. will in the tank as well.
05:17 PM on 04/25/2012
If we enact the Ryan budget we can join them at hyper speed and catch up quickly.
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Moxo
Our enemies are in the GOP.
04:29 PM on 04/25/2012
Treasury chief George Osborne said the debt crisis afflicting the 17-country eurozone has impeded Britain's recovery, but he said he would stick to his "credible plan" to cut the country's budget deficit.
====================
How stupid can he be - pulling money out of the economy got him his double-dip recession!

This is what will happen here if the GOP's Ryan Plan goes into effect.
04:37 PM on 04/25/2012
EXACTLY!!
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06:17 PM on 04/25/2012
Wrong. It will happen here if interest rates rise and make our enormous debt payments so high that we will become the next Greece. QE2 was a disaster as was Obama's stimulus. Both a big wast of taxpayer money.
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Moxo
Our enemies are in the GOP.
08:11 PM on 04/25/2012
Amazing then we could all pay double-digit interest rates whilst Reagan was dumping us into Debtor Nation status, huh.
04:04 PM on 04/25/2012
Oxymoron - Expansionary Austerity
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
HOMEY1
WE WON YOU LOST
04:03 PM on 04/25/2012
what are all the baggers doing here? they cant mess up the uk so why dont they put down mommys keyboard and go outside and play
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06:17 PM on 04/25/2012
Only after you take your thumb out of your mouth homey.
04:01 PM on 04/25/2012
The crown will come out of this. They always do
02:29 PM on 04/26/2012
Are the Royals feeling this recession.
I do not think so.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
iMissMollyIvins
Middle-aged, Middle class, Midwestern Populist
03:59 PM on 04/25/2012
I have a question for all of those Right-Wing, 'Conservative' Think Tank economists out there: How's that Austerity Policy-thingy working out in the real world?
05:21 PM on 04/25/2012
Unfortunately if your only goal is to enrich the very wealthy at the expense of everyone else the austerity, tax cut thing works very well.

What's amazing is that the Obama haters and social conservatives don't realize that they're helping Romney and his merry band of super wealthy elites sodomize them.
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03:56 PM on 04/25/2012
And this mess is what REPUGS want to emulate in the US...
05:23 PM on 04/25/2012
They can't wait to get back to the good ole days of the Bush years with its tax breaks for the rich, cutting of programs that benefit everyone else, deregulating everything in sight, and launching unfunded wars overseas.

Ohhh goodie!!! We can elect Romney and relive the whole nightmare all over again!!
03:45 PM on 04/25/2012
WOW!! WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT cutting taxes on the wealthy to lower levels than others and instituting austerity measures would have caused the economy to stall!!!??? What happened to the job creation of lower taxes!?!?!? NOT
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03:41 PM on 04/25/2012
Is Mitt proposing austerity? Oh, right, it's a secret.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
marignymitch
E pluribus unum percent
03:20 PM on 04/25/2012
Go for a triple dip! More austerity.
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tharksketler
Show me what you got, Nihilist!
03:17 PM on 04/25/2012
Conservatives think of the economy in the same terms as they think of their own personal household budget. If I owe a bunch of money, I cut back on discretionary spending, save, and pay off my debt. Simple, right?

While that is how the economy of my household works, the U.S. economy is a little more complex. Conservatives seem to want to simplify things so that the weak-minded can follow their flawed logic.

The economy is not your household, and the government is not a business.
03:42 PM on 04/25/2012
Amen!
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RHN
Pinocahontas said what?
03:58 PM on 04/25/2012
If it were a business, it would be bankrupt!
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tharksketler
Show me what you got, Nihilist!
04:31 PM on 04/25/2012
It's not a business, so saying, "If it were a business, it would be bankrupt!", is an irrelevant and silly thing to say.