FL-2012 Senate: 47% Nelson (D), 36% Mack (R) (Rasmussen 4/25)

Rasmussen
4/25/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Rasmussen release

Florida

2012 Senate
47% Nelson (D), 36% Mack (R) (chart)
44% Nelson (D), 30% LeMieux (R)
48% Nelson (D), 29% McCalister (R)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[dpearl]

12:05 PM on 05/01/2012

The BLS published the Business Employment Dynamics data for the third quarter of 2011 today and the news was quite good: 753000 more private sector jobs created than lost in that quarter. I like this quarterly report because it is
1) based on a census rather than a survey, and
2) it gives information SEPARATELY on jobs gained from expanding firms and opening businesses as well as jobs lost from business closings and business contractions (and breaks it all down by state and by industry). The report covers all of the businesses that have to file quarterly because they participate in unemployment insurance - so it doesn’t cover government jobs, self-employed, or agricultural workers. If you want to develop a better understanding of the private sector job market I highly recommend the report, which is at www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf

[StatsNo1fan]

12:14 PM on 05/01/2012

Third quarter of 2011?

Wow, took a while to fake those numbers just right.

[dpearl]

12:27 PM on 05/01/2012

This quarterly report has always come out seven months after the due date for the businesses to get their data in (remember this is a census and that businesses do not always get their information in on time so it takes a bit to get it all together).

[StatsNo1fan]

01:23 AM on 05/01/2012

Have you heard about the latest Elizabeth Warren controversy?

She got caught not red handed.

[AaronTX]

04:52 PM on 05/01/2012

No, but I see it now. Not a big deal. If what people said about themselves 17 years ago mattered, Mitt Romney would not be the nominee.

Looks like the schools were more interested in listing her as a minority than she was.

[funkeepickle]

05:54 PM on 04/30/2012

Based on polls, polling trends, and voting trends so far my electoral map would be:

Safe D (161)

Likely D (40):
OR, NM, MN, NJ, ME

Lean D (46):
WI, MI, PA

Tossup (96):
NV, CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL

Lean R (26):
AZ, IN, NH

Likely R (29):
MT, MO, GA

Safe R (140)

[Xenobion]

07:21 PM on 04/30/2012

I'd be more in line with this as well.

[imsexyandiknowit]

10:09 AM on 05/01/2012

are you kidding? you think MN, OR, and NJ aren't safe D?

[Xenobion]

12:52 PM on 05/01/2012

They're easily in the likely category. I think they aren't safe because they always poll within 10%.

[StatsNo1fan]

11:55 AM on 04/30/2012

Charlie Cook updated his electoral map a few days ago. Looks very different from some of the others we've seen recently.

http://cookpolitical.com/charts/president/ev_scorecard_2012-04-24_06-47-24.php

[StatsNo1fan]

11:59 AM on 04/30/2012

Couple of other cool links from his site.

http://cookpolitical.com/

http://cookpolitical.com/node/12417

[Xenobion]

01:04 PM on 04/30/2012

His electoral map is more padded than an insane asylum for Romney. Which you'd probably have to be in to believe those numbers.

[StatsNo1fan]

01:21 PM on 04/30/2012

He is a lefty who is highly regarded by all sides for his forecasting accuracy.

But I am gonna go with X's numbers instead.

[Symanski]

02:13 PM on 04/30/2012

His map is not much different than RCPs. In fact, Cook's map has the same number of EVs for Obama, 227. The major difference is that RCP has Romney at 170, Cook has him at 210. That difference is due to Cook moving Missouri (10) and Arizona (11) from RCP tossup to Cook "Likely Romney." Not that big of a difference because those are "likely Romney" if you think rationally. The other 19 EVs awarded to Romney in Cook vs RCP come from North Carolina (15) and New Hampshire (4) being moved from tossup to "leans Romney." I think NH as "leans Romney" is the most obvious departure from reality, given the paucity of polling information there. And NC is certainly a "toss up," but I'm pretty sure it'll go Romney in the end.

The HuffPo "scoreboard" comparison is where Cook and RCP look quite different. When I checked yesterday, HuffPo had Obama at 269 already. That's even ridiculous by HuffPo's normally absurd liberal bias.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

10:13 AM on 04/30/2012

I would be more likely to even come close to believing Rasmussen's daily polls if they didn't have Ron Paul trailing Obama by 2. Seriously, the guy didn't even win one primary, and still thinks he has a shot to get the nomination. Please!!!! It makes Rasmussen's credibility look weak, and it shows that the number of people polled are probably close to half conservative, or at least lean right. Although, progressives are in the minority, nationwide, to conservatives, I think those in the center is greater than most pollsters would admit.

[RussTC3]

06:42 PM on 04/29/2012

Based on Rasmussen's release today -- where they state the President enjoys a 19-pt lead among Moderates, attracts 92% of support from Liberals and Romney gets 83% of Conservatives -- Rasmussen's sample bias has now increased to Republican +6.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:54 AM on 04/30/2012

That is nonsense if it is true. Shame on Rasmussen. They are going to regret it when their criteria is dead wrong.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

05:19 PM on 04/29/2012

The Polls don't make that much sense, especially when Obama doesn't have a particularly bad week and Romney doesn't have a good week. I think when events, such as unemployment rising again, could hurt Obama, but as the election gets closer, I think the number of people who are considered likely to vote will rise. The issue over cell phones and landlines will play a bigger role in 2012, and could affect the accuracy of polls.

[RussTC3]

03:53 PM on 04/29/2012

Just a friendly note. Gallup has begun to adjust back to a close race. Unfortunately for them, the MSM decided not to pay attention to their huge swing back to President Obama (as high as +7 against Romney and 50% Approval).

It's amazing the amount of play they got from the MSM with them showing Romney up by as much as +5, but alas, the MSM just didn't seem to care that President Obama was leading by so much so now it's time for them to show Romney back in the lead to boost their web traffic.

Looking at their recent changes, they should be back to a Romney lead by no later than Tuesday. We'll see if they decide to stick to that schedule. It's possible they may adjust once more depending on the amount of national polling we see in the coming days.

[dpearl]

04:34 PM on 04/29/2012

Gallup (like PPP, Rasmussen, and other major pollsters) will continue to publish what their respondents tell them despite the many commentators that see purposeful deceitful behavior. The behavior of the Gallup tracking poll is not unusual in the least for 5-day rolling averages. The change you see in a given day is just one-fifth of the difference between their most recent survey and the survey from 5 days before that. No more. No less.

[RussTC3]

06:10 PM on 04/29/2012

No. In reality, you don't have a shift of 7 points or 5 or even 4 points due to the result of 1 day of a 5-day sample.

Gallup and Rasmussen are being purposely deceptive. End of story. Gallup does it because they're not good at their job, while Rasmussen does it due to their inaccurate sampling.

[RussTC3]

10:43 PM on 04/30/2012

And right on schedule, Romney is back to a lead against President Obama in Gallup's daily tracker. The tracker shifted eight points over the course of three days (from Obama +7 to Romney +1).

The President's approval rating shifted 7 points (from +6 to -1) over four days.

Over the course of 10 releases, the Obama/Romney tracker has gone from Romney +5 to Obama +7 (12-pt shift) back to Romney +1 (8-pt shift).

[gbshabo]

11:24 PM on 04/27/2012

Think we can move this out of the toss up category

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

05:29 PM on 04/27/2012

I guess Jeb Bush will have to enter the race for the GOP to take back the US Senate?