NC-2012 President: 47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (SurveyUSA 4/26-30)

SurveyUSA
4/26-30/12; 1,630 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
SurveyUSA release

North Carolina

2012 President
47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (chart)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:29 PM on 05/02/2012

Did anyone hear Gingrich's concession speech? A Republican actually talking about the importance of science and technology? He sounds like a different Newt. He's not calling Obama the food stamp president, which isn't true. I mean, he sounds like a intelligent man, which I don't say very often. It is like he really didn't want the nomination to begin with.

[ColoradoMeansRed]

02:59 PM on 05/02/2012

Romney has to sew up the south and Colorado over the summer so he can focus on Ohio, where the race will be won or lost. Consistently weak numbers in VA and NC and now FL will make that really hard.

[-iVote-]

03:01 PM on 05/02/2012

Lol, I don't think Colorado is going to be "sewn up over the summer" by either candidate.

[Lat1]

03:15 PM on 05/02/2012

CMR,

Now you are starting to get it. Stillow thinks I'm out of my mind and that trends will take care of themselves. Romney is in jeopardy in all of these states because of minority voters. NC is a good example aa voters make up 20% of the electorate and it's all going to Obama. Same is true in VA. CO,NM,NV have huge hispanic votes that Obama is crushing Romney. 30 and 40 years ago when these groups made up 10 percent of the total electorate the gop could simply ignore them. Now they make up between 25-28% of the total electorate and it makes it a heck of a lot harder (why do you think the gop is freaking out with these voter id laws? Do you honestly believe for one minute this voter fraud garbage?). States that used to be flyover country for the gop are all of a sudden in play where they are playing defense. The gop can continue to antagonize these voters or they can learn from Jack Kemp's (a man I rarely agreed with, but had lots of respect for) example and engage them. This problem isn't going away and will only get worse.

[StatsNo1fan]

03:40 PM on 05/02/2012

B0B0 is running a racially divisive campaign, which_pisses off white voters. For every 1% of whites he loses, he needs to gain an additional 9% among Hispanics.

The math is tough for Dems.

[Field Marshall]

02:18 PM on 05/02/2012

Wonder if faux-cahontas in Mass. just cost herself the election.

There was an article in the WaPo yesterday detailing what a disaster the Democratic party in NC is currently in- that it could eventually cost Obama any chance there.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:22 PM on 05/02/2012

Warren now is running ads that feature B0B0.

A fake Indian assisted by a fake Hawaiian.

[stillow1]

02:34 PM on 05/02/2012

Maybe he is 1/32 Hawaiian???

[Xenobion]

03:02 PM on 05/02/2012

A fake Indian? I'm surprised this type of racism passes here. She is indeed Indian despite her overwhelming European features/lineage. I myself am 1/8th and enrolled in a Tribe but probably look whiter than you I bet. Clearly you have no understanding of racial politics where we attribute 1 drop of African American blood as being black but 1 drop of Indian blood of apparently nothing. Your ignorance is astounding.

[Symanski]

01:40 PM on 05/02/2012

I thought for sure these state polls would trend Romney's way once he wrapped up the nomination.........

[stillow1]

02:33 PM on 05/02/2012

Well, it is probably a little early still for trends to develop. Out of all the NC polls done so far of this matchup, only one time in one poll has anyone got to 50...that was Romney in a Civitas poll and he got exactly 50. At least historically speaking, as the incumbent you do not want your own #'s below 50 with a bunch of undecideds. Undecideds are often not to friendly to the incumbent as the election gets closer and closer. Undecideds would not matter if you are above 50, but in NC neither guy is....this is why "I" personally give NC to Romney....its much more likely he will benefit more from the undecideds than Obama will.

RCP average here is Obama 46.7 and Romney 44.3....very close...but "I" think buried in those #'s is an advantage for Romney.

[axt113]

03:15 PM on 05/02/2012

You do realize SUSA is the most accurate pollster around?

[axt113]

04:02 PM on 05/02/2012

Averages of recent polls are fine, and look even averaged, Obama leads

[Wong23]

12:53 PM on 05/02/2012

Bad news for Governor Etcha Sketch

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:48 PM on 05/02/2012

I am going to start taking bets for VP predictions for Romney. Right now I'm leaning towards Kelly Ayotte in NH. She's conservative but sane, she is partisan enough to be liked by the party but it might be a problem for him to live down the war vs women, so he'll need all the help he can.

[Gopherguy23]

12:48 PM on 05/02/2012

Stillow,

How do you think the Ras poll with Obama up 8 and Heller up 11 stacks with your perception of the races living in Nevada?

[stillow1]

01:07 PM on 05/02/2012

Makes sense to me. Heller is a lot more liked than Romney is here. I think NV is likely to split its vote...like it did in 2010 with Reid and Sandoval. I give this state to Obama....but I think Heller probably wins his race.

Some of the resutls could be media driven though. Heller is advertising already, but i have not seen a single Berkley ad yet.....also I've seen many Obama ads, but not a single Romney ad yet in the local media....so when all sides start jumping in o nthe ads, the #'s in both races might tighten up....but I am still inclined to bet NV splits this cycle.

[Lat1]

01:21 PM on 05/02/2012

You're conceding NV already Stillow? I have news for you my friend if NV is gone then NM and CO are very likely gone also which leaves Romney's margin for error at zero.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:23 PM on 05/02/2012

I don't think either party in 2012 can assume they will win or lose a senate seat based on how well or poorly Obama or Romney do in their respective states. SD, ND and MT have had numerous presidential elections where Democratic senators won by margins as big as Gore, Kerry and Obama lost.

I still think based on Demographics Warren should win Mass. and if Obama does well in Nevada, Berkley should win too, but independents still are willing to split their ballots, so it is a mystery how things will pan out.

[Lat1]

12:23 PM on 05/02/2012

Uh-Oh! New Rass poll out showing Obama up 8 in NV. Scottie must have had his automated dialers only call liberals that day. Where is all the love for Mittens?

[StatsNo1fan]

12:45 PM on 05/02/2012

Hey Lat, how come PP/kos has Hispanics barely getting to 50% for B0B0? Same story week after week. I thought you promised us 65-70.

[Lat1]

12:49 PM on 05/02/2012

Stats, you keep telling yourself that. I encourage you to drive that narrative.

[galerosen]

12:12 PM on 05/02/2012

Here's the first "enthusiasm gap" poll I found in very quick search. OMG, the Democratic voters are more enthusiastic.....Sheesh

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/dems-winning-on-enthusiasm.html

[StatsNo1fan]

12:46 PM on 05/02/2012

Thanks for the link.

Underscores what a joke PP is. Every other pollster shows consistent GOP enthusiasm lead.

[Lat1]

12:51 PM on 05/02/2012

Judeo-Christian nation buddy "so long it's been good to know you"...

[Xenobion]

01:07 PM on 05/02/2012

False

[gbshabo]

11:38 AM on 05/02/2012

well, I've never heard of SurveyUSA being liberally slanted but wait for it..........

[funkeepickle]

11:49 AM on 05/02/2012

You forget it's an RV poll and there's an enthusiasm gap. If it were an LV sample Romney would clearly be up by at least 25.

[stillow1]

11:56 AM on 05/02/2012

Its always valid to point out if a poll is RV or LV.....since not all RV's vote as you know.......and enthusiasm is key to determining what a LV will be. But, its always good to lead in an RV poll too. These RV polls help give us a big picture look at the race, which as many of us have said, O has the advantage "right now" as the incumbent.

[Damien Stebbings]

12:01 PM on 05/02/2012

That's true funkeepickle, enthusiasm for Mitt Romney's candidacy is astronomical. Impossible to quantify I'd have to say! ;)