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French Elections: Analysis From Le Huffington Post

Posted: 05/06/2012 6:23 pm Updated: 05/06/2012 6:26 pm

France Elections Analysis
President-elect Francois Hollande blows a kiss to the crowd after his election in Tulle, central France, Sunday, May 6, 2012. Francois Hollande defeated Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday to become France's next president, Sarkozy conceded defeat minutes after the polls closed. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

The French people have spoken. François Hollande has been elected President of the Republic with 51.9 percent of the vote against 48.1 percent for the incumbent president, Nicolas Sarkozy, according to early results released by Ipsos at 8:00 p.m., Central European Time. And even as the final ballot counts come in throughout the evening, there is little doubt as to the election's outcome, as the Union for a Popular Movement candidate is unlikely to regain the lead over his Socialist challenger, already conceding defeat.

And so, François Hollande will become the seventh president elected by universal suffrage under the Fifth Republic, 31 years after his illustrious Socialist predecessor, François Mitterrand, was elected. The politician from Corrèze has been preparing himself for this day since early 2009, when he was still on the margins of the political landscape. Since easily winning the nomination in October 2011 as candidate for the Socialist Party, Hollande has been the frontrunner of the presidential campaign, spurred on by polls which never placed him below the 52 percent mark in the second round.

“I, President of the Republic,” a phrase which Hollande repeated during the debate between election rounds, showed the French people his intended style as president, and will surely go down as a passage of note. Hollande's style came in stark contrast to the Sarkozy years, which were characterized by the former Neuilly mayor’s brash and antagonistic personality.

Having taken refuge since Saturday in his Corrèze headquarters, an area now home to two presidents, François Hollande delivered his victory speech in front of the Tulle Cathedral before boarding a plane for Paris, where his supporters will gather at the Place de la Bastille to celebrate their win.

Nicolas Sarkozy, The Second President To Not Win Re-election

For outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy, who lost nearly 4 percentage points compared to his 2007 election results, this second-round vote is a clear political indictment and confirms his campaign's failure between the two rounds, when he aggressively courted the far-right in an attempt to convince Marine Le Pen’s supports to rally behind his conservative stances.

The UMP candidate’s defeat is significant on two points: France has once again embraced the idea of a changing of the guard, after 17 years of RPR-UMP presidents and three consecutive Socialist Party failures; the electorate also has stripped a presidential candidate of his own succession, something which has not happened since 1981, when François Mitterrand defeated Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.

The comparisons with 1981 don’t stop there. In that year, the conservative president was also defeated at the ballot box following a five-year term burdened with an oil crisis and rising unemployment, set against a backdrop of political-economic scandals.

One thing is clear: tonight’s vote likely spells the end of Nicolas Sarkozy’s political career, as he has maintained that he would not return to previous appointments if defeated. At 57 years old, the deposed president, who becomes a de facto member of the Constitutional Council, has yet to give any indication what his plans are following the transfer of power.

Loading Slideshow...
  • Supporters of Socialist Party candidate for the presidential election Francois Hollande react after the first results of the second round of French presidential elections outside Socialist Party campaign headquarters in Paris, France, Sunday, May 6, 2012. First results show that Hollande had won the election. (AP Photo/Francois Mori)

  • A supporter of outgoing French President Nicolas Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) cries as the preliminary results of the second round of the presidential elections were announced at UMP headquarters in Paris Sunday May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

  • Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) supporters wave the French flag as they wait for preliminary results of the second round of the presidential elections at UMP headquarters in Paris Sunday May 6, 2012. France voted in a presidential run-off election Sunday expected to see Socialist challenger Francois Hollande defeat incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy by capitalizing on public anger over spending cuts and a Europe-wide push for austerity. (AP Photo/Jacques Brinon)

  • Socialist Party candidate for the presidential election Francois Hollande poses with residents after visiting a polling station near Tulle, central France, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Lionel Cironneau)

  • A disabled person is seen inside a pollong booth prior to casting a vote for the second round of the presidential election in Paris Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Francois Mori)

  • Socialist Party candidate for the presidential election Francois Hollande waves as he tours through villages near Tulle, central France, after voting in the second round of the presidential elections, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Bob Edme)

  • French President and UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy waves to wellwishers as he and his wife Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, center right, leave after casting their votes for the second round of the presidential elections in Paris, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, Pool)

  • French President and UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, center, and his wife Carlas Bruni-Sarkozy, right, leave after casting their votes for the second round of the presidential elections in Paris, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, Pool)

  • French President and UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, center left, casts his vote for the second round of the presidential elections as his wife Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, left, looks on in Paris, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, Pool)

  • Supporters of Socialist Party candidate for the presidential election Francois Hollande react after the first results of the second round of French presidential elections outside Socialist Party campaign headquarters in Paris, France, Sunday, May 6, 2012. First results show that Hollande had won the election. (AP Photo/Remy de la Mauviniere)

  • Supporters of Socialist Party candidate for the presidential election Francois Hollande react after the first results of the second round of French presidential elections outside Socialist Party campaign headquarters in Paris, France, Sunday, May 6, 2012. First results show that Hollande had won the election. (AP Photo/Francois Mori)



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The French people have spoken. François Hollande has been elected President of the Republic with 51.9 percent of the vote against 48.1 percent for the incumbent president, Nicolas Sarkozy, according ...
The French people have spoken. François Hollande has been elected President of the Republic with 51.9 percent of the vote against 48.1 percent for the incumbent president, Nicolas Sarkozy, according ...
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OLJW00
right is right
12:45 PM on 05/13/2012
And here comes the law of unintended consequences....aka Le Grand Départ

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/9261905/High-earners-say-au-revoir-to-France.html
rafaelkafka
"Dubito, ergo cogito, ergo sum!"
08:09 PM on 07/07/2012
They are crazy! 85% of federal taxes! 5% local!
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woodrow2012
"An Independent Man of True Grit"
12:38 AM on 05/08/2012
I think that the super rich are not paying their fair share. But I also believe that the middle class isn't either. And the low income should be paying at least something. Brackets of 50%, 30% and 10% would be fair to all. Just do it!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
01:54 AM on 05/08/2012
Everyone who earns an income should pay taxes, no matter how small the amount. Peope want fairness in the tax code.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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OLJW00
right is right
12:48 PM on 05/13/2012
The top 1% of earners in America pay about 40% of the nations federal income taxes

Seems to me the wealthy pay MORE than their fair share already.
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woodrow2012
"An Independent Man of True Grit"
11:56 PM on 05/13/2012
I agree entirely. The top 1% is paying 35%. If you add local and State income taxes, then it puts them paying up to 50% or even higher. When I said that the super rich aren't paying their share, I meant that in jest. The point that I was making is that, if they can be accused of not paying their fair share, then so can the middle class and lower income people. It's amusing how people in one tax bracket want people in other tax brackets to pay more.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
11:30 PM on 05/07/2012
"France is facing a crisis of competitiveness caused by rising labour costs. Last year it recorded its biggest-ever trade deficit. Without significant cuts, public spending is forecast to reach 100 per cent of GDP over the next few years. Unemployment, which Mr Sarkozy promised to reduce to five per cent, is at a 12-year high of nearly twice that figure. The president likes to compare France’s situation favourably with that of Greece, Spain and Britain, but the overall trend, without stringent deficit reduction and incentives for private sector job creation, points towards recession."

http://napoleonlive.info/did-you-know/france-2/
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David Charin
05:22 PM on 05/07/2012
whats very noticeable in the screenshots of the French election are how multiethnic the Socialist party's support is in the Parisian electorate. Bravo. I'm glad that immigrants in France vote, and I'm glad that they and the left intellectuals of France have managed to overhaul not just the austerity measures of the Sarkozy/Merkel alliance, but have also managed to outvote the neo-fascist National Fronde.
Its monday and it looks like the stock market haven't died either. Looks like the banks didnt fold. Looks like the French have made a choice to become center-left.
Viva la France.
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Clayton139
GOP-R's Are 4Rich, Corporations NOT People!
12:29 AM on 05/08/2012
Stop the RepuliKKKans from VOTER Suppression !

It will stop 11% of the Vote for Obama !

Obama 2012

Elizabeth Warren for Senate 2012 !
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
01:59 AM on 05/08/2012
Diversity is good in your diet and portfolio, not necessarily so in the 'hood.
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Arthur Walsh
The Shadow Knows!
03:32 PM on 05/07/2012
Well here we are Monday and the stock market has not crashed! Had a dip at the beginning as the alarmists tried to force it down and rip us off for more money but was forced right back up again by reality. Message to all the Sunday night trolls YOU LIE!
11:24 AM on 05/07/2012
Left wingers enjoy your victory. France is France ...I hope we do not follow their steps..Do our progressives know that Holland is proposing 75% income tax. Of course not....Holland is against belt tightenning........The reason France is in deep dodo is because of entitelements....well...here comes USA in their footsteps...HIOPE NOT
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
02:12 AM on 05/08/2012
see above why the Franks are in trouble
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paxatman
Do no harm, Help others.
10:39 AM on 05/07/2012
Capitalism plus strong regulations to limit the influence of greed plus higher taxes on absurd wealth works. It worked in the 50's and 60's, our best decades, and it will work again after we take our government back from the 1%.
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Bettaman
Former Republican - now sane
10:10 AM on 05/07/2012
Even the French see that right wing politics just don't work. We'll be seeing the same kind of thing this November when the right wing is kicked to the curb here too....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
02:14 AM on 05/08/2012
The Publicrats are One Party, of the rich, by the rich and for the rich.
10:06 AM on 05/07/2012
Hollande wants to expand an already bloated public sector with all its labor rigidities and entitlements. Bad news for France, bad news for Europe.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Frey
unCommon sense for the common good
02:14 AM on 05/08/2012
True.
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Gebby
artist gebhardtart advocate for a better world
09:24 AM on 05/07/2012
Austerity doesnt work in Economics and it doesnt work in Politics.
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Aslow
QUALITY CONTINUUM
10:01 AM on 05/07/2012
Right. More debt. More taxes. More inflation. that's the ticket!
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EmmaNYC
shoes & ships & sealing wax, cabbages & kings
10:29 AM on 05/07/2012
Left. More spending. More jobs. More stability. That's the ticket.
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Gebby
artist gebhardtart advocate for a better world
10:29 AM on 05/07/2012
Manage the debt as a percentage of GDP, Yes more taxes they are the lowest in 50 years and need to be raised to right the budget( I am not talking local taxes). What inflation? Inflation is not happening. Could be higher as a way to monetize the debt. Inflation is 2%. Inflation does not happen until wages are rising and they havent for 30 years. ( look at the statistics).
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IdahoBlue777
Condescending to righties because it's so easy
11:36 AM on 05/07/2012
You cannot have recovery with government cuts alone. It just deepens the depression. You must also have tax increases and economic growth. You cannot force Middle Class workers to take on the burden of government recovery by themselves. There are more of them than there are the 1% and they vote. No matter how much money the 1% dumps on an election, the Working Class can only be fooled for so long.
09:20 AM on 05/07/2012
dilute
08:55 AM on 05/07/2012
Le Screwed - Mr. Sarkozy ?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
braigno2
In the end it all comes down to money.
07:39 AM on 05/07/2012
I can hear Carla now ," lets go cheri pack your bags!" Sarkozi ," should I pack for the island or the mountain?
Carla ; i don't care just get the H... out!!
07:38 AM on 05/07/2012
The next president not to win reelection.....drum roll please....OBAMA
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rbelmonte
always grateful
09:09 AM on 05/07/2012
Au contraire! OBAMA 2012
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mimimus
Pleased to meet you - hope you guess my name
09:20 AM on 05/07/2012
But that would be in 2016 and because of term limits, pilgrim™.
06:45 AM on 05/07/2012
"François Hollande will become the seventh president elected by universal suffrage under the Fifth Republic" If you say it this in a really dramatic voice it sounds like something you might overhear at a Star Wars convention.
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Tao Monkey
Proud to be a Progressive American
10:01 AM on 05/07/2012
Or a Star Trek voiceover log entry.