Obesity In America: 42% Estimated To Be Obese By 2030, New Data Shows

WASHINGTON — The obesity epidemic may be slowing, but don't take in those pants yet.

Today, just over a third of U.S. adults are obese. By 2030, 42 percent will be, says a forecast released Monday.

That's not nearly as many as experts had predicted before the once-rapid rises in obesity rates began leveling off. But the new forecast suggests even small continuing increases will add up.

"We still have a very serious problem," said obesity specialist Dr. William Dietz of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Worse, the already obese are getting fatter. Severe obesity will double by 2030, when 11 percent of adults will be nearly 100 pounds overweight, or more, concluded the research led by Duke University.

That could be an ominous consequence of childhood obesity. Half of severely obese adults were obese as children, and they put on more pounds as they grew up, said CDC's Dietz.

While being overweight increases anyone's risk of diabetes, heart disease and a host of other ailments, the severely obese are most at risk – and the most expensive to treat. Already, conservative estimates suggest obesity-related problems account for at least 9 percent of the nation's yearly health spending, or $150 billion a year.

Data presented Monday at a major CDC meeting paint something of a mixed picture of the obesity battle. There's some progress: Clearly, the skyrocketing rises in obesity rates of the 1980s and `90s have ended. But Americans aren't getting thinner.

Over the past decade, obesity rates stayed about the same in women, while men experienced a small rise, said CDC's Cynthia Ogden. That increase occurred mostly in higher-income men, for reasons researchers couldn't explain.

About 17 percent of the nation's children and teens were obese in 2009 and 2010, the latest available data. That's about the same as at the beginning of the decade, although a closer look by Ogden shows continued small increases in boys, especially African-American boys.

Does that mean obesity has plateaued? Well, some larger CDC databases show continued upticks, said Duke University health economist Eric Finkelstein, who led the new CDC-funded forecast. His study used that information along with other factors that influence obesity rates – including food prices, prevalence of fast-food restaurants, unemployment – to come up with what he called "very reasonable estimates" for the next two decades.

Part of the reason for the continuing rise is that the population is growing and aging. People ages 45 to 64 are most likely to be obese, Finkelstein said.

Today, more than 78 million U.S. adults are obese, defined as having a body-mass index of 30 or more. BMI is a measure of weight for height. Someone who's 5-feet-5 would be termed obese at 180 pounds, and severely obese with a BMI of 40 – 240 pounds.

The new forecast suggests 32 million more people could be obese in 2030 – adding $550 billion in health spending over that time span, Finkelstein said.

"If nothing is done, this is going to really hinder efforts to control health care costs," added study co-author Justin Trogdon of RTI International.

Earlier on HuffPost:

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Comments

[readyornot1001]

10:13 AM on 07/02/2012

Since most American's are obese.....should that be the NORMAL STANDARD SIZE ? ? ? ?

[readyornot1001]

10:11 AM on 07/02/2012

Only 42 % in 2030 ? ? ? ? ? I just read an article where 2 out of every 3 people in America are obese now. And, in your Southern States of America the percent is even higher than that .... right now.

[Apanel]

03:57 PM on 05/15/2012

Before we get our plus-sized undies in a bunch, let's face some real facts. Obese people die younger. Fact. A healthy person who lives a longer life uses/spends more $$ in healthcare than an obese person. Fact. What is the real crisis? People are going to die sooner rather than later. The only reason this is such news is that everywhere you look and in nearly every single story on the subject is implied that obesity is costing us all a ton of money. THIS is the fact that seems to bother everyone, not the lower quality of life that's possible with severe health restrictions connected with obesity. I really wish we could have at least one discussion in this country that didn't come back to the cost to everyone else. All this does is fuel the pushing obese people into near pariah-state. Doctors get on TV and talk about the epidemic of obesity as if they really care yet ALWAYS mention the $$ this condition is costing everyone. So, which is it? Do you want people to be healthier or just not cost you anything?

The people who are costing us the most money are old people yet you don't hear anybody talking about that as a crisis. You should be thanking obese people (and smokers, probably) because they're not going to be a drain on healthcare $$ as long as everyone else.

(Yes, some of this is sarcasm but not all of it)

[JSeikel56]

11:15 AM on 05/09/2012

This article really hit home. Two years ago I gained 40 pounds and felt horrible. I decided that I was going to start living my life again. After dropping all of the garbage weight with a solid nutrition and fitness plan I am on a mission to help others do the same.

www.fit-from-home.com

[readyornot1001]

10:16 AM on 07/02/2012

The only reason why you felt horrible was because of all the slim advertising. Who cares what size you are .... as long as your happy with yourself.

[Sue Thomason]

06:38 AM on 05/09/2012

This is a study by RTI Health Solutions, a company that "RTI Health Solutions provides responsive and comprehensive services to private pharmaceutical and health firms to help assess the population impact and value of a product throughout its lifecycle. We provide research and consulting to the health care industry, worldwide, to support product development and marketing" (from their website). And so then this is reported as fact. Hmmm. Interesting. Who would benefit from the results of this study? Who funded it? Gosh, not the weight loss industry?

[Heather Williams009]

04:22 PM on 05/08/2012

I think a lot of these answers are unproductive, in that obesity is usually not something which is intentional. Fat people know, and hate being fat, but very often they are not taught good methods of dealing with this issue. People treat them like freaks, are cruel, and society says that is alright and even encourages it. I used to be 120 pounds overweight, now I am normal size and no one can even tell I was big, but I remember being treated badly by many, many people. I did not eat a lot more than a normal person, in fact I ate less, I was ignorant. The issue is that people who are obese often have little real health education, and when they ask for it the "healthy" people preach instead of showing some compassion. Weight adds on a little bit at a time, and in a society that prizes money more highly than anything else, why shouldn't health be thrown under that bus as well?

[Lauren J]

02:23 PM on 05/08/2012

This is a pretty scary article. I was on my way to being obese but decided to take control. I started on the diet solution plan 2 months ago and have lost 36 pounds so far. If you feel helpless like i did you really need to check it out.

http://greatestviews.com/the-diet-solution-program-does-it-really-work/

[Californiagrove]

12:31 PM on 05/08/2012

Oh good! Nice to know I won't be alone. Someone hand me those last 3 pizza slices.

[readyornot1001]

10:18 AM on 07/02/2012

Damn, just give me the whole pizza!!!!!!!

[AdamCBS]

12:26 PM on 05/08/2012

That's exactly why we're here. At CreativeBioScience we are always putting together natural solutions for anyone looking to lose weight. If anyone ever needs help with coaching or motivation with any weight management program they're on, please feel free to use our unlimited diet and weight loss support, at http://www.CreativeBioScience.com or calling 877-744-1224.

[sheridomni]

10:37 AM on 05/08/2012

I'm for education of the public about obesity and its inherent dangers. But, for the sake of all involved, please stop using something as inane as the BMI scale. It is a ridiculous confluence of made-up math and never accurately describes the health of a person. There are athletes that, according to the BMI, are obese -yet they have muscles popping so hard that they have a roadmap of veins streaking across their bodies.

(And now it's time for an amazing post-work-out spinach-steak salad!! ;)

[WishfulThinkingRulesAll]

01:40 PM on 05/08/2012

BMI is pretty awful, but really, a lot of people are classified as overweight using BMI, don't have extra muscle mass, they have extra fat.

As a really rought guide it is a good start, unless a person is too short, too tall, or too muscular... LOL

[sheridomni]

04:29 PM on 05/08/2012

Exactly my point. :)
Something that is "researched" should have a much better way of determining the obesity of America other than something that is as ridiculous as BMI.

[NotEve]

02:21 PM on 05/08/2012

BMI is simply a ratio, and like all ratios the results are skewed by outliers. Using an example of an outlier (your bodybuilder) to criticize the use of BMI only demonstrates your lack of understanding of the use and application of BMI.

[sheridomni]

04:28 PM on 05/08/2012

I understand it fully. It's a skewed system and rarely works well. BMI takes into account only height and weight to determine someone's fat content -which is asinine. To determine fat content, have someone at a local gym measure your fat via a pair of calipers. Or, better yet, have a full work-up done via a physician in order to determine not only your fat but also your cholesterol, etc.

[milesthemad]

07:05 AM on 05/08/2012

Physical education is still taught in schools, people have always driven kids to school, sports are still actively encouraged at all levels and junk food has been around for decades so we can't blame any of these things for the obesity epidemic. Not least because the obesity epidemic isn't unique to the United States but is epidemic even in countries where diets and lifestyles are very different from those in the United States.

I put the blame on the proliferation of celebrity endorsed fad diets that rely on anecdotal "evidence" centered on weight loss and pseudoscience, the very dangerous myth that being skinny equates to being healthy, the obsession with calorie counting without a context to put it in, the proliferation of food shows that promote foods that look and taste good but are of very dubious nutritional value, the ease to which junk food can delivered to the door but not healthier food, the escalating cost of obtaining and preparing healthy food, the use and abuse of very unhealthy dressings and flavourings on otherwise healthy foods, and embracing diets from other cultures and countries that don't take into account the different environments and metabolisms of people in those areas.

And the biggest cause of the obesity epidemic? If you're reading this, you're using it.

[catmagnet]

01:53 PM on 05/08/2012

And I also use it to get healthy recipes, get my workout videos, enter my food and exercise, get information about nutrition and fitness, and get my music that I use for my cardio workouts.

The internet can be used for good stuff that contributes to a healthy lifestyle as well.

[AlwaysOutSpoken2]

04:49 AM on 05/08/2012

We devalued physical education from the public school system, this with nutritional guidelines accompanied with physical education stimulation now is also obsolete. Then we pump our children the cheapest lunch possible, then we add drink machines and other vending products that fattens up your belly that day.
This message was loud and clear to students, these students become adults, these former students have children and the cycle continues.
Yes I know change is present but that's a generation wasted ob junk food, They not only are Fat, they are lazy unproductive people looking for the easy way out.

We are a fat nasty lazy country, Its time to stand up and fight with exercise blood pressure down medical expense down...... We focus better in good health, we have better sex, superior children etc.. Come on People lets join as one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cyanmanta]

03:30 AM on 05/08/2012

For the millionth time, obesity is NOT a serious health problem; it is often a symptom of an unhealthy lifestyle choice, but it's not a health problem in itself. Fat people who exercise are always healthier than skinny people who don't, and being underweight is MUCH more of a health risk than being overweight. The Body Mass Index was a 19th-century sociologist's tool to measure human body types on a continuum, NOT a dietician's tool to tell people how much they "should" weigh. You want to be healthy? Stop worrying about numbers, and start worrying about getting enough exercise and eating a proper diet. If you lose weight as a result, great. If you don't, screw it; you're still helping your health. Weight is not, nor has it ever been, a good proxy for health.

[Bklein153]

12:33 PM on 05/08/2012

This post must be straight form bizarro land! Obesity IS a major health problem. For example, in our local school, we now have over a dozen elementary school kids with Type II diabetes! The cost to our health system is astronomical. Saying it isn't is like the Tobacco companies saying cigarettes are not bad for you

[catmagnet]

01:18 PM on 05/08/2012

In some respects, she's right, though.

Yes, I am obese, but have adopted healthier eating and exercise habits since the beginning of the year. My blood pressure, oxygen saturation rate and RHR are fine, my cholesterol and triglycerides are well within the normal range, and can walk 4 and a half miles no problem. I am a healthy person, according to my physician. Yes, I'm losing weight (currently at a 39.9 BMI from a high of 47.4), but that's just a nice side effect of taking better care of my body.

[WishfulThinkingRulesAll]

01:42 PM on 05/08/2012

Pretty dang sure obesity is an independent risk factor for a whole host of things. Safe to call it a problem.

[radfatty]

12:06 AM on 05/08/2012

Studies show that dieting, even that considered “naturalistic”, among young people lead to weight cycling [Naturalistic weight reduction efforts predicted weight gain and onset of obesity in adolescent girls; http://ebn.bmj.com/content/3/3/88.full]

There is an evidence-based compassionate alternative to conventional dieting: Health At Every Size®. Please consider this alternative prior to making a decision that may result in weight cycling.

For more information on Health At Every Size, you can find a general explanation on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size) or find in-depth research-based information in the book Health At Every Size - The Surprising Truth About Your Weight by Dr. Linda Bacon (http://www.lindabacon.org/HAESbook/).

[Verh]

10:46 PM on 05/07/2012

Face it: so long as health is a for profit industry, the fatter the population, the wealthier the health industry (and the food industry, of course).

So quit with the dumb articles, Huffpo. Nobody really *really* cares that we are fat and sick, least especially the health industry.

[catmagnet]

01:56 PM on 05/08/2012

A lot of hospitals are actually non-profit and 55% of their revenue on average comes from government sources (i.e. Medicare and Medicaid). I'll give you that insurance companies, some hospitals, physician practices, and some skilled nursing facilities are for profit, but it's more complex than the average American thinks.

[Verh]

12:16 AM on 05/14/2012

Hospitals overcharge because they perceive that Mcd/Mcr underpays.  Pharmaceuticals are wasteful if prevention is the focus. This is a multifaceted issue that should start with these issues.  Americans must realize that some industries should not be subject to the "competition/profit makes perfect" paradigm.  Medical care, social services, police, and fire department - these should never be for-profit sectors.