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Arthur Delaney
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Unemployment Extended Benefits Expiration May Lower Jobless Rate, Economists Say

Posted: Updated: 05/21/2012 5:33 pm

Unemployment Rate

Art Bailly of San Mateo, Calif., figured he had another couple months worth of unemployment insurance. He was super upset to discover two weeks ago that his benefits would be stopping short.

"I wasn't too happy when I found out, especially because they didn't even send me a letter notifying me I was being cut off," Bailly, 42, said in an interview. (A spokeswoman for the California Employment Development Department said letters went out to all potentially affected claimants and the department spread the word on its website and via social media.)

More than 90,000 Californians abruptly stopped receiving federal unemployment insurance this month. California, the most populous U.S. state, was one of eight states to lose eligibility for the federal Extended Benefits programas as a result of a bipartisan congressional deal to kill the program this year. Overall, more than 200,000 jobless workers will lose benefits this month in California, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Texas, according to the National Employment Law Project, a worker advocacy group.

Paradoxically, the end of the Extended Benefits program could actually cause the unemployment picture to appear to improve. Bloomberg News reported Monday that according to economists Dean Maki at Barclays and Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase, the end of the federal Extended Benefits program could lower the jobless rate by as much as 0.2 percentage points.

Here's why: Some workers who had been searching for work as a condition of receiving benefits will quit looking when they are cut off, thereby dropping out of the labor force. Workers only count as "unemployed" if they have tried to find jobs within four weeks of a government survey. People who aren't looking for work because they believe none is available aren't part of the official unemployment rate calculation (though they are included in broader measures of unemployment released alongside the official one each month).

Another reason the unemployment rate could drop without Extended Benefits is that former claimants suddenly deprived of income will settle for lower-paying jobs they wouldn't have taken before. That's what's happening in Bailly's case.

Bailly said that if he had known his benefits would be stopping, he would have lowered his job-search sights weeks ago instead of continuing to hold out for a job like the one he lost. He said he previously earned $13 an hour doing compliance work for videogame manufacturers, making sure that game software worked correctly with different hardware systems (he said the work did not entail actually playing games). Now that he's out of benefits and in need of next month's rent, Bailly said he's gunning for whatever low-paying work he can get.

"I'm running around out here looking for jobs at McDonald's," he said.

The Extended Benefits program provides the final 13 or 20 weeks of compensation for people who exhaust 26 weeks of state benefits and 53 weeks of aid under a different federal program called Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which will remain in place through the rest of the year.

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Art Bailly of San Mateo, Calif., figured he had another couple months worth of unemployment insurance. He was super upset to discover two weeks ago that his benefits would be stopping short. "I was...
Art Bailly of San Mateo, Calif., figured he had another couple months worth of unemployment insurance. He was super upset to discover two weeks ago that his benefits would be stopping short. "I was...
 
 
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Youagginme
Saying NO is not a solution
04:00 PM on 05/07/2013
It's Like Every GOP Talking Point. Fraud!
11:14 PM on 06/16/2012
With all the talk about statistics, the real tragedy is being ignored. This economy is creating a new generation of abandoned in our society. They are of all ages (but 50+ is the most impacted) and are usually highly educated. This is wrong. And it will impact everyone. In one of his lives, Buddha actually killed someone to save the lives of 500. Although his action was wrong, his action of saving 500 lives was greater. If the bankers and politicians believe that they are above the laws of karma, destiny, God, whichever word best describes a power that is beyond your control, then they are in for a surprise. Money can buy you many things, but it can't buy you love or happiness. The evil feudal system can only win if we, the people, give them the power. Keep the power for yourself even if you are unemployed, facing homelessness and remember the lesson of Buddha, sometimes you have to break an egg to make an omelette, or was that Napoleon. Whichever. There are many hells and there is a special level for evil people who destroy the lives of others. It is just more satisfyinng when you get to watch the hell unfold for them during your lifetime. For those in need, please don't give up five minutes before the miracle happens.
04:54 PM on 05/23/2012
This is BS. There are other states that are continuing to receive extended benefits and its up to the state to except the federal funding. Its all about polotics and these states want to look as if things are better although they are not. It doesn't cost the state a dime as it is federally funded. I recently e-mailed the whitehouse on this and created a petition on change.org to extend extended benefits, originally for Florida, however I am changing it to all the states this has effected in hopes to get more signatures and change this for those of us in need. These states are losing a ton of money in federal funding and every dollar that we receive in extended benefits the economy gets back that and 1/2. It doesn't rise the cost businesses insurance one cent.
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
08:07 PM on 05/23/2012
In response to comment: Extended benefits are not handouts, it is money funded by the federal government and not by businesses. In fact businesses unemployment rates will not be effected by this at all and it doesn't cost the state a dime. Our country has been giving loans to those coming into our country for years to open up businesses when it is we American's that really need these low interest loans to help one another and pull ourselves out of a recession, yet let us try to apply for a loan and just see the red tape we go through and if we are lucky enough to get a loan the interest is very high. We fight other countries wars and give them handouts while we are in a recession in our own country. It's time to fight for our own people and help them (us) to get jobs and help us get loans to open up businesses and hire people that are not imigrants to work for us. They will work for less in our country, so American's are losing jobs over it. I have seen this everywhere, so do your reasearch and don't respond to me in another language to tell me how we Americans are getting handouts from businesses who have nothing to do with the federal funding of extended benefits.
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bordway
If you need more than 7 rounds, use a knife.
08:24 AM on 05/23/2012
Okay "job creators"; anytime.
10:23 AM on 05/23/2012
Don't hold your breath....there's still lots of money for them to steal first....
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
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irochfpst
no right turn
11:14 PM on 05/22/2012
how many of you business men or women are willing to hire someone 50 and over? just asking?
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
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irochfpst
no right turn
11:12 PM on 05/22/2012
the unemployment rate doesn't even come close to the reality. it's almost a made up number just to make things look better than they are. it's the same with the inflation rate. pathetic!
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
01:53 AM on 05/23/2012
How do you think they make up the employment rate? Do you think someone in the BLS just pulls a number out of the air?
02:12 AM on 06/08/2012
It's not a made up number but millions of people have fallen off the unemployment lists because their insurance ran out. That doesn't mean they found a job. This makes real unemployment higher than what the numbers have said. This has always been the case since we've been keeping track of the numbers.
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Youagginme
Saying NO is not a solution
04:02 PM on 05/07/2013
People Who did not Phisically apply for a Job are not counted. Simple!
04:59 PM on 05/22/2012
It think cutting of extended unemployment benefits or at-least weening people off them would lower the UI rate because many of them would just settle for a job that before they thought they were to good for or felt unemployment benefits were a better deal.
05:39 PM on 05/22/2012
A little progressive thought for you: how is having 50% of the country working at McDs or some other minumum wage job good for anyone?
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spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
08:29 AM on 05/24/2012
It is good for the ones at the top, who pay less in wages and make more in profits.
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
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chris hatala
04:57 PM on 05/22/2012
Tpubs destroying the middle class one state at a time.
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ScottV
Damn Right I'm a Democrat!
04:28 PM on 05/22/2012
Corporate America's Plan is moving forward full steam ahead!
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ScottV
Damn Right I'm a Democrat!
04:27 PM on 05/22/2012
It's the race to become Texas...
10:10 PM on 05/22/2012
Better Texas than California.
02:13 AM on 06/08/2012
Considering the fact that Texas is the bottom, I'd rather stay in California.
10:56 PM on 06/16/2012
As a native Californian, I would be happy to see a mass exodus from this state to Texas or your state.
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Robert SF
04:19 PM on 05/22/2012
The solution to our unemployment problem is not for everyone to set their sights on minimum wage jobs.

But it's true that not counting people anymore makes the unemployment picture look better. However, if you adjust for the people they stop counting, the truth is that there has been no significant change over the past 30 months.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/502/elfshort.gif

The unemployment rate has gone from 10% to 8%, but the percentage of people with jobs has not changed.
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MiddleMolly
Working to better the USA!
06:25 PM on 05/22/2012
Robert, you are another one who doesn't think that people should be able to retire? The main reason that the labor participation rate has gone down is because the population is aging. The labor participation rate of people 55+ is about half of that of people 25-54. The "civilian no-institutional population 16+" has increased by 29,000,000 people since 2001. About 21,600,000 of those people are 55+. As people 55+ have half the labor participation rate of people who are younger, it should be NO surprise that the labor participation rate (and the employment participation rate) has decreased. As the economy improves, will the labor participation rate improve? Well, it always has in the past... But we have too many people retiring, so I honestly do not think it will go up very much.

In fact, as this is the first year that the vanguard of the Baby Boomers (people born in 1946) can take full social security, we can expect that the labor force participation rate will continue to go down as people take their social security and retire.
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Robert SF
07:26 PM on 05/22/2012
Yes, this year was the first year that the oldest Baby Boomers could take full social security. That kind of puts the kibosh on your theory that it's all good because people are just retiring to enjoy a comfortable life. What about the drop last year and the one before? If those people signed up for social security, they sure weren't getting full benefits.

The truth is that, unable to find work, lots of people are signing up for social security. They're taking big hits because they're only 62, and they would prefer working, but they see no other choice. I know several people who were forced by their inability to find work to take early social security. The average seems to be about $750 a month, which is not enough to live in a city.

I'm not sure what you're really getting at. What is really your discomfort? Do you not want to believe things remain virtually unchanged for Main Street?
11:38 AM on 05/23/2012
"The unemployment rate has gone from 10% to 8%, but the percentage of people with jobs has not changed."


Excellent point! This is very key as actual employment is a much better indicator of economic health than unemployement stats which can be manipulated to suit the viewer.
03:46 PM on 05/22/2012
"...former claimants suddenly deprived of income will settle for lower-paying jobs they wouldn't have taken before."

Now we're finally getting to the real reason the banks did what they did.
03:35 PM on 05/22/2012
So, now he's going to have to look for work that pays LESS than the $13.00 an hour he previously made. At a 40 hour work week, he was making $520.00 a week before taxes. Not a princely sum to begin with. Mitt spends that on dinner!

Our race to the bottom isn't taking long is it?
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Libby123
Wind turbines? Oh, I'm a big fan!
12:06 AM on 05/24/2012
Let's see... too big to fail... constant of acceleration... "deficits don't matter"... 32 ft/sec/sec... job creators...

Yeah. A big wet THUD.
02:37 AM on 06/08/2012
We hit bottom when we make the same wages as Chinese slave labor. Seriously, that's the ultimate goal. Why do you think the corporations and politicians are so anti-union and pushing for the so called 'right to work' legislation in all of the states? This is the lost generation and we are all part of it if we are young or over 50.
02:20 PM on 05/22/2012
It's time for the unemployed to accept their new status as indentured servants! Now pull your self up by the boot straps you don't have and become a billionaire... You could always UPS your self to China to catch up to your old job.. Welcome to the American scream!
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demilieu
Texas liberal...with reservations
01:59 PM on 05/22/2012
really, it's not about looking for work. if you get UI checks you're in the system and being counted as unemployed. when the checks stop, you fall out of the official count. so, the official unemployment rate drops. whatever the official rate is, reliable but unofficial estimates put unemployment at close to 20% for men between 18 and 45.
nonethewyzzer
Master of neither subtlety nor style.....
04:23 PM on 05/22/2012
Even higher for women over 55. YIKES!