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Facebook Share Price Plunges Again: Valuation Doubts Rise As Social Network's Stock Takes Big Hit

Reuters  |  Posted: Updated: 05/22/2012 5:16 pm


By Suzanne Barlyn and Ryan Vlastelica

(Reuters) - Two top U.S. financial regulators said the issues around the initial public offering of Facebook should be reviewed, putting fresh pressure on the company, its embattled lead underwriter and the Nasdaq.

After Friday's nearly flat close and Monday's 11 percent plunge, Facebook shares closed 8.9 percent lower at $31 on volume of 101 million shares. At that price the company has shed more than $19 billion in market capitalization from its $38-per-share offering price last week.

Investors were still shaking their heads over the botched opening trading of Facebook when Reuters reported late Monday that the consumer Internet analyst at lead underwriter Morgan Stanley cut his revenue forecasts for Facebook in the days before the offering, information that may not have reached many investors before the stock was listed.

JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, which were also underwriters on the deal, each revised their estimates during Facebook's IPO road show as well, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley selectively disclosed the change in Facebook estimates, which drew the attention of the main regulator of U.S. brokerages.

"That's a matter of regulatory concern to us and I'm sure to the SEC," said Richard Ketchum, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority's chairman and chief executive. "And without saying whether it's us or the SEC, we will collectively be focusing on it.

A Morgan Stanley spokesman declined to immediately comment on Ketchum's remarks.

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro said investors should be confident in investing, but she conceded there were questions to answer as well.

"I think there is a lot of reason to have confidence in our markets and in the integrity of how they operate, but there are issues that we need to look at specifically with respect to Facebook," she told reporters as she exited a Senate Banking Committee hearing.

STILL OVERVALUED?

With Facebook shares all but impossible to sell short, investors have sought out almost any related vehicle to bet against the social network. Over the past three trading days, prices plunged on two closed-end funds that owned pre-IPO shares. Firsthand Technology Value Fund and GSV Capital Corp both dropped more than 25 percent even though their Facebook holdings make up only a small fraction of assets.

"Until investors can actually short Facebook, they have to keep shorting other things that can give them some sort of proxy for Facebook," said Thomas Vandeventer, manager of the Tocqueville Opportunity Fund, which owns shares of both the battered closed-end funds.

Brokers who over-ordered shares in the expectation that supply would be limited continued to complain they received too much stock to handle and were left in the dark about forecast changes.

One Morgan Stanley Smith Barney adviser also cited the fact that institutional investors received information that retail investors did not, calling it "a huge issue for the entire industry.

"Night and day the institutional clients get things that we don't get. It's a big issue," the adviser said, adding there was surprise within the brokerage that Morgan Stanley, as lead underwriter, had not done more to support the share price.

As bad as the declines have been, though, a view persists that the stock remains overvalued.

Thomson Reuters Starmine conservatively estimates a 10.8 percent annual growth rate -- almost exactly the mean for the technology sector -- which would value the stock at $9.59 a share, a 72 percent discount to its IPO price.

Similarly, the company's price-to-earnings ratio remains lofty, even after the selloff. The $31 price implies a forward P/E of 60, compared with Google's 13.3 forward price-to-earnings ratio (for a similar rate of growth).

The one bright spot for Facebook was news late Tuesday that it had agreed to settle a proposed class-action lawsuit over its "Sponsored Stories" feature.

WEIGHING ON NASDAQ

Besides the pressure on Facebook and on Morgan Stanley, there is also an intense focus on Nasdaq, which has shouldered much of the blame for the trading failures.

The exchange has set aside money to compensate customers, but some on Wall Street are warning its ability to snag future big IPOs is at risk. Meanwhile, a suit filed late Tuesday in Manhattan federal court seeks class-action status for anyone who lost money due to a mishandled order.

"It's dreadful for the markets," former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt said of the IPO and its handling by banks and Nasdaq. "It's an event with long-lasting negative implications for an industry that can ill afford this kind of blemish, and the last chapter hasn't been written. Nobody looks good here."

But Nasdaq shareholders gave the company a pass on Tuesday -- at the exchange operator's annual meeting, which only lasted a few minutes, top executives did not get any questions at all on what went wrong with Facebook or what they were doing to correct it.

"While clearly we had mistakes in the Facebook listing, we still want to highlight the fact that it was the largest IPO ever and on Friday of last week, we processed over 570 million shares," Nasdaq Chief Executive Bob Greifeld said at the shareholder meeting.

Defenses notwithstanding, Barry Ritholtz, a widely followed financial blogger and the chief market strategist at Fusion IQ in New York, took all sides - Facebook, Morgan Stanley and Nasdaq - to task in the sharpest terms on his blog Tuesday.

"Thus, what we see are a series of bad decisions made by Facebook's executives going back many years. The insiders got greedy, too clever by half, in how they used secondary markets. They picked a bad banker and an awful exchange," Ritholtz said.

(Additional reporting by Jed Horowitz, Edward Krudy, David Gaffen, Jessica Toonkel, Joe Giannone, Jonathan Spicer and John McCrank in New York, Ross Kerber in Boston, Sarah N. Lynch in Washington and Alistair Barr, Alexei Oreskovic and Noel Randewich in San Francisco; Writing by Ben Berkowitz in Boston; Editing by Edward Tobin, Maureen Bavdek and Steve Orlofsky)

Also on HuffPost:

Not every IPO has a happy ending. Check out the biggest IPOs of Internet companies from the past decade and where they are today:
Loading Slideshow...
  • Google: $1.67 Billion

    Google <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/19/business/weak-demand-leads-google-to-lower-its-sights.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm" target="_hplink">raised $1.67 billion</a> in its August 2004 IPO, valuing the company at $23 billion. As of May 15, 2012, Google <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nasdaq/google/goog" target="_hplink">was worth $199.2 billion</a>.

  • Yandex: $1.3 Billion

    The Russian search engine and web company <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/24/yandex-ipo-russia-search-engine-linkedin_n_866226.html" target="_hplink">raised $1.3 billion went it went public</a> in May 2011, giving it a valuation of around $8 billion. As of May 15, 2012, it had <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nasdaq/yandex-nv/yndx" target="_hplink">a market capitalization of $37.5 billion</a>.

  • Shanda Games Ltd.: $1.04 Billion

    Shanda Games, a Chinese online gaming company, raised $1.04 billion when it went public in Sept. 2009. That month, it had a market capitalization of $976.95 million, <a href="http://ycharts.com/companies/GAME/price#series=type:company,id:GAME,calc:price,,id:GAME,type:company,calc:market_cap&zoom=&startDate=9/25/2009&endDate=11/30/2011&format=real&recessions=false" target="_hplink">according to data from YCharts</a>. As of May 15, 2012, the company <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nasdaq/shanda-games-limited/game" target="_hplink">had a market capitalization of $1.3 billion</a>.

  • Zynga: $1 Billion

    Social gaming company Zynga raised $1 billion in its IPO in December, 2011, then the biggest web-related IPO since Google, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/16/znga-ipo-nasdaq_n_1153518.html?ref=technology" target="_hplink">according to the Associated Press</a>. Zynga had a valuation of $7 billion before it began trading on the Nasdaq on December 16. As of May 15, 2012, the company <a href="https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:ZNGA" target="_hplink">had a market capitalization of $6.31 billion</a>.

  • Giant Interactive Group Inc.: $887 million

    Giant Interactive Group, a Chinese online gaming company, raised $887 million when it went public in October 2007. In December of that year, the company had a market capitalization of $3.358 billion, <a href="http://ycharts.com/companies/GA/price#series=type:company,id:GA,calc:price,,id:GA,type:company,calc:market_cap&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false" target="_hplink">according to data from YCharts</a>. As of May 15, 2012, the company <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nyse/giant-interactive-group/ga" target="_hplink">was valued at $1.2 billion</a>.

  • RenRen: $743 Million

    RenRen, the Chinese social networking site, raised $743 million in its IPO in May 2011, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/us-renren-ipo-idUSTRE7433HI20110504" target="_hplink">according to Reuters</a>. At the end of its first day of trading, the company had a market value of $7.4 billion. As of May 15, 2012, RenRen's <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RENN" target="_hplink">market capitalization stood at $2.3 billion</a>.

  • Groupon: $700 Million

    The daily deals site <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/04/groupon-ipo-biggest-since-google_n_1075374.html" target="_hplink">raised $700 million in its IPO</a> in November 2011, valuing the company at nearly $13 billion. As of May 15, 2012, Groupon's value was $7.85 billion.

  • Vonage: $531 million

    Vonage, the VoIP company, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/46209095/The_10_Biggest_Internet_IPOs?slide=6" target="_hplink">raised $531 million when it went public</a> in May 2006, CNBC reports. The next month, it had a market capitalization of $1.338 billion, <a href="http://ycharts.com/companies/VG/price#series=type:company,id:VG,calc:price,,id:VG,type:company,calc:market_cap&zoom=&startDate=5/24/2006&endDate=5/16/2012&format=real&recessions=false" target="_hplink">according to data from YCharts</a>. As of May 16, 2012, Vonage <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/nyse/vonage-holdings-corp/vg" target="_hplink">had a value of $387.1 million</a>.

  • Orbitz Worldwide Inc.: $510 Million

    Orbitz, the online travel company, raised $510 million when it went public in July 2007. As of May 15, 2012, the company <a href="https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:OWW" target="_hplink">had a market capitalization of $393.05 million</a>.


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By Suzanne Barlyn and Ryan Vlastelica (Reuters) - Two top U.S. financial regulators said the issues around the initial public offering of Facebook should be reviewed, putting fresh pres...
By Suzanne Barlyn and Ryan Vlastelica (Reuters) - Two top U.S. financial regulators said the issues around the initial public offering of Facebook should be reviewed, putting fresh pres...
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COMMUNITY PUNDITS
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outlandish 08:17 AM on 05/23/2012
Mass hysteria created by Wall Street claims another group of victims. Nothing new about that, that’s what they do and it all rests on the, there’s one born every minute principle.
They know you’re out there and know that greed will set your engine racing, regulators are almost nonexistent and those that are, are paid to look the other way until the fleecing has run its course.
Every  Read More...
PhantomShadow
Think what you want about me. You will anyway.
08:03 AM on 05/24/2012
I have NO valuaton doubts as I KNOW the stock is too high.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cuttingman
Data drives decisions
07:12 PM on 05/23/2012
anyone who bought into a company for $107 billion, when there is no real business strategy to make it worth even a tenth of that, should not be surprised or complain that their shares are dropping. Only the stockbrokers and JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, made out on this deal, the public got suckered!
05:12 PM on 05/23/2012
The deflections to create other views and focuses off of the larger picture of those involved in creating the financial crises...what a wall-streetishly and politically backed diversion upon a media company to discredit during election year due to rapid transfer of information capability...would never agree with such IPO practices and those involved need to be held accountable ....but ask yourself ...what about those IPO'S that were under the radar..lets see "The Stock Act" and why create it? Yet at the same time the financial sector (banks) can monitor themselves, then just get fined without the investigative tenacity to one IPO transaction? TRUST is led by example and earned! Who really knows what corporation/bank to trust any longer as it seems to be at times a " sea of snakes holding each other by their tails" under a huge rock unseen but known to be there in levels of interlocking relationships...sold and traded to queston true origin of tansactions as protective mechanisms to any legal accountabilities.
02:52 PM on 05/23/2012
They are artificially propping it up today, trying to give it a floor just to avoid a massive investigation. Smart move, but its only so long you can do that.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
pantherburns
labor creates all wealth
01:30 PM on 05/23/2012
Another day, another Wall Street rip off of the average investor. And Mitt RMoney is AOK with it. White collar crime just has so much more class than regular old crime. Those people belong in jail.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stockton jeff
11:58 AM on 05/23/2012
Feel sorry for facebook
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
maigoro
I need a guilt free cigarette
09:42 AM on 05/23/2012
I wonder how many shares the sleazy slimy citizenship reneging sob sold?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Geauterre
Writer, Author, Commentator and Humorist.
09:11 AM on 05/23/2012
To be blunt: The institution we know of as Wall Street is rotten. Worse, the banking system which is its underlying supporting structure is infested with worms, and the name of their game is speculation and highway robbery.

If that weren't enough, take as an example a national Congress who knows all about it, and wastes its time bickering over who is to blame for what, while the country's leader, trying to measure the depth of his own salt, cagily also acts in such a peculiar manner as to suggest . . . he's more concerned with reelecting himself to the same position he's proven to be inept at.

The lunacy of all this is his detractors are worse, and his competition is a pirate, planning with his mates back on Tortuga how to scuttle everyone else's ship, and then put them to auction.

It's not that we're being ruined by all this; the facts of the matter are that that has already happened, but what has to be focused on is our rescuers can't have anything to do with our saviors. You see, our saviors are the ones that need to be sent to the gallows.
09:04 AM on 05/23/2012
Wasn't it P.T Barnum who said, "There's a sucker born everyday!" Well he was wrong. There are millions of suckers born everyday! If anybody thinks they can play in the market with the insider sharks, they're crazy! The financial markets in this Country are massive, zero-sum, casino bubbles, where the house always wins. At the rate we are going, 80% of our economy is going to be built upon non-productive, smoke bubbles, run by computers and clever scammers. Personally, I worry about the coming catastrophy, when it all comes crashing down before us! There will be no place to hide!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gmcinahuff
PREVENTION IS KEY.
09:00 AM on 05/23/2012
Pay No Attention To The Men Behind The Curtain! !
BOOM BOOM BOOM!!!!
I AM OZ! ! !
WE WILL MAKE UP PRICES AS WE SEE FIT!!!! BOOM BOOM BOOM! ! !
YOU WILL ALL JUST HAVE TO GO ALONG WITH IT! ! !! BOOM BOOM!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=NZR64EF3OpA#t=50s
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thehighbrowpoliticker
09:00 AM on 05/23/2012
I asked this before and I will ask again, why are people buying stock in Facebook? Prior to this IPO offering I knew they would over-inflate the value of this company, then investors would get caught in there own "irrational exuberance" and now they want whine and complained about how unfair trading was. Oh and look, all the Monday morning quarterbacks are out-and-about telling us all what went wrong and what should have been done. What should not have been done is purchasing this stock unless you were on the inside and got first crack. Facebook is a bad investment, a passing fad that will eventually go the way of MySpace and AOL.
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MissDem
true blue all the way
12:44 PM on 05/23/2012
Was a stock broker - system is so crooked, rigged, etc., had to leave the business. People do not understand that companies with no tangible assets are NOT a good buy. I have had Facebook's lack of privacy touch me personally LAST WEEK, when someone I had not had any contact with for years, but was still in my AOL contact list respond to my "friend request" of a day earlier. I did not send a friend request, so have to go with Facebook decided to send it and I'm wondering if ALL my contacts received one. Myspace was better anyway.
The only people who made money on this deal is the creator, employees ( I don't begrudge them anything) and Wall Street insiders and their top clients. WE could not have made any money on it.
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multidoc
Re-animating the dead since 1922
08:56 AM on 05/23/2012
There is a reason for regulation in this area. It's to give people confidence that the market is honest, so that they can put their money into something and have a genuine chance of success. That's becoming less and less true in all areas of american life.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:54 AM on 05/23/2012
"Morgan Stanley cut his revenue forecasts for Facebook in the days before the offering, information that may not have reached many investors before the stock was listed."

But it was on CNBC well before the IPO. CNBC had segment saying that GM was cutting FB ad business, and they did not recommend the stock. I emailed a friend to say "don't buy it" a day before the IPO - but she bought it anyway.

Fraud and Wall St did not cause the Crash of 1929, or of 2008. "Tulip mania" did, the below book explains all. And foolish buyers caused this FB fiasco too. You are looking for scapegoats that don't exist. I knew everything Morgan Stanley did well before the IPO. So did millions, it was on CNBC. Which young posters here don't watch, because they don't own stock, they don't know Wall St destroyed itself while the rest of the economy has recovered. Which is why they believe "Inside Job" and other nonsense. Read the book that the experts do, it's quite entertaining:

"Sometime in the next five years you may kick yourself for not reading and re-reading Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes." –Paul A. Samuelson
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Matthew Walters
Give to each according to need!
08:54 AM on 05/23/2012
This is the stuff Romney knows best! I am certain his vultures are circling and hedging against the stock and have made billions betting aginst the new stock.

The stock is valued at around $10 according to realists but greed and ignorance is priceless among investors and voters alike!

Perhaps Romney and his sort will get the position they want and China's debt of several trillion is cancelled by banckrupting the United States and paying them pennies on the dollar for the chunk of our country China owns on paper!

Wonder why the GOP is waging a debt ceiling fight again? Hedge funds betting against the US dollar will make out on just the hint of a default!

Like the monopoly game we played as a child we play for the chance to end up on top and desensitize ourselves to the losers!

Ya know Kruschief of the former Soviet Union predicted that our system of unbridaled capitalism would fall on its own weight and they would simple walk in without firing a shot.

The communist system almost failed but by embracing parts of the capitalist system they can now loan us capital our system can't produce!

Facebook is an investment of time and money as worthwhile as video game obsession!


Greed trumps family values the way paper covers rock and rock crushes sissors!
08:54 AM on 05/23/2012
What is it that every stock holder or investor should know. Investing involves risk, and can result in partial or complete loss of investment. This is no different. Besides, is Facebook really worth $100 Billion dollars? For Pete's sake, it's a internet chat/social tool...."Oh, I got up and had breakfast this morning!" or "Just changing the babies diaper, brb..." Come on people, that's worth $100 Billion dollars, or $38 dollars a share?

What's that famous line...."There's a sucker born every minute..."

How many times do you have to watch your money evaporate in the markets before you learn the lesson? The dot.com bubble, real estate bubble, the 2008 massacre, mortgage derivatives, debt swaps.....Jon Corzine at MF Global, the recent mess at JPMorgan Chase, now the Facebook IPO.....when will the lesson(s) sink in?

Unless your ready to have all your money disappear on a roll of the dice, don't play the market. Sure, you could make a killing, but for every success story there's also a(n) I've lost it all story, too......