OH-2012 President: 48% Romney (R), 45% Obama (D) (Purple Strategies 5-31-6/5)

Purple Strategies
5/31-6/5/12; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
More: Automated phone
Purple Strategies release

Ohio

2012 President
48% Romney (R), 45% Obama (D) (chart)

Correction: The margin of error reported in this post has been corrected

Comments

[Xenobion]

12:40 AM on 06/08/2012

I don't really see how this sample can be a 2.5% MOE, especially given the other polls going on in OH.

[stillow1]

01:09 AM on 06/08/2012

Other polls? Depends on who you trust. There have been 5 polls in Mayfor OH.

Of the 5, only the two leftwing pollsters show Obama with a decent lead. PPP O+7, NBC O+6.

The other 3 all have it very close. Rass - R+2, Purple - R+3, Q - O+1.

I would note that the two who show Romney with small leads, Rass and Purple are LV samples....the reest were RV.

[John2261]

06:59 AM on 06/08/2012

The margin of 2.5% applies to all 4 purple strategies polls combined, each separate poll is +-4% according to their tables. (It should probably be a little higher than that unless there was no weighting)

[dopper0189]

12:30 AM on 06/08/2012

Unless we get more confirmation this poll is an outlier. Romney has been very week in Ohio, very little has changed to justify this.

[stillow1]

12:54 AM on 06/08/2012

"very little has changed to justify this"

You mean except for the horrible jobs report just as this poll was being taken?

...and the last non partisan pollster to poll this race was Q...and it was O+1.

[-iVote-]

11:29 PM on 06/07/2012

Why aren't more people in the media talking about a possible Electoral Vote tie? There are multiple plausible scenarios in which Obama and Romney each get 269 electoral votes. Out of the swing states, if Romney manages to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, that gives him exactly 269. If he happens to win Minnesota instead of Wisconsin (10 EVs) or Iowa instead of Nevada (6 EVs), or some combination of each, that still gets him 269. The whole election could come down to Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, or else end up in the Congress.

This is juicy stuff, surprised more media folk haven't picked up on it yet.

[stillow1]

12:56 AM on 06/08/2012

If the polls are this close in October, I bet they would be talking about it. However, Romney is in the good position of winning the tie. I don't see the GOP House choosing Obama! Just a guess.

[dpearl]

01:37 PM on 06/08/2012

Nate Silver tracks that in his election forecasts. His current estimate is that the probability of an Electoral College tie is 0.3% (i.e. not really all that plausible - but fun to think about for political junkies like the group here)

[A New Jersey Farmer]

09:22 PM on 06/07/2012

Where does this pollster fit in on the legitimacy scale?

[stillow1]

10:37 PM on 06/07/2012

Near the top for Romney supporters and near the bottom for Obama supporters???

[Field Marshall]

08:08 PM on 06/07/2012

Wonder why the large move here? Maybe Lat can tell us if its because the white working class is fearful of the black man in the WH or some other nonsense.

[Lat1]

09:10 PM on 06/07/2012

Its going to be sp much fun watching you lose FM. Watching the values that you hold dear get trampled on...

[Field Marshall]

09:44 PM on 06/07/2012

The values I "hold dear get trampled"? Who says that?? Just nutty.

Lat, are you the New Black Panther party head? Let go of the hate my brother. Let go of the hate. Black power!

[Rocketsfan]

07:21 PM on 06/07/2012

If the MI poll is true then this would make sense. We'll need to see more polls to verify it.

[stillow1]

07:39 PM on 06/07/2012

Its certainly movement from their last poll of this state which had Obama +5. That is a pretty solid shift they picked up. Certainly more polling would be nice.

[Field Marshall]

10:09 PM on 06/07/2012

I'm sure three months from now there will be a plethora of polling on this state.