ND-2012 Senate: 50% Heitkamp (D), 44% Berg (R) (DFM/ND Democratic-NPL Party 7/24-7/26)

DFM Research (D)/North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party
7/24/12-7/26/12; 400 likely voters; 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
DFM Release

North Dakota

2012 President
54% Romney (R), 35% Obama (D) (chart)

2012 Senate
50% Heitkamp (D), 44% Berg (R) (chart)

Also on HuffPost:

Comments

[NewEnglandMan22]

09:13 AM on 08/12/2012

wow wwtg Heidi!!

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

06:43 PM on 07/28/2012

Did anyone also see the partisan makeup? Only 29 percent are Democrats, and 71 percent are non-Democrats. It looks like this polling firm did a reasonable job of being realistic in the Demographics of ND.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

01:46 PM on 07/28/2012

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/367641/20120727/florida-voter-suppression-blacks-voting-black-vote.htm

As for the supression of the vote, a former GOP leader from Florida admits it.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

01:27 PM on 07/28/2012

I would predict at the very worst Democratsw will win at least one of these in the Senate in the 5 red states. Here is how I'd rank them by the chances from most likely to least likely.

1. Tester
2.Donelly
3.Heitcamp
4. Mccaskill
5. Kerry

[ashenthorn]

12:45 PM on 07/28/2012

Even if this poll isn't to be taken seriously, Scotty Ras has a morning jolt for republicans in the Wisonsin Senate race...

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

01:47 PM on 07/28/2012

Baldwin is a pretty good candidate and is doing a good job at reaching out to voters.

[StatsNo1fan]

02:05 PM on 07/28/2012

From the looks of it, Tammy may live to regret her Hovde assist.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

02:32 PM on 07/28/2012

No, Hovde is way to the right of Thompson. I don't think he'll win independents no matter how much he spends. Being labled the Tea party candidate may have worked in 2010, but it won't work in 2012.

[stillow1]

03:21 PM on 07/28/2012

stats - couple months ago Thompson would ahve walked away against Baldwin....Hovde can win it sure, but Thompson was almost a lock. In WI you can't count any GOPer out, even Romney because of the tremendous ground game the GOP has in WI. Plus Baldwin is not very impressive....so if its Hovde I'd classify this as tossup....which we'll just add to the already alrge list of Dem held tossup seats this cycle.

[dopper0189]

10:58 AM on 07/28/2012

The Plains States are full of what to be called big government conservatives. Folks who are conservative on social issues but LOVE government spending on agricultural subsidies, rural post offices, social security, medicare & medicaid, maintaining military bases, etc. Now in states like Kansas where you have the Koch brothers packing a punch the states are really red. But in places like Nebraska, the Dakotas, etc Dems can be competitive with good candidates, even if they lean Republican. Also government assistance isn't viewed as being as scary because it mostly going to other white folks and not "others" (although conservatives in these states love to attack the reservations as bastions of corruption and voter fraud).

In many ways the plains are the reverse of New England. In New England folks are social liberals, who because of their high earning they can sometimes be convinced to vote GOP on economic issues (New England has 4 GOP Senators), the plains are social conservatives who need government assistance so Dems can pick off seats at times.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:21 AM on 07/28/2012

Heitcamp would be an asset to the US senate. Any more Tea bagging freaks, our nation is doomed.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:03 PM on 07/27/2012

Well, it is consistent with ND voters in the past. They have voted overwhelmingly GOP in just about every presidential campaign ever other than 1964, yet they've had Democratic senators.

FOr the GOP, this seems like a steal but not so fast. This is ND, which is about 98 percent white. It isn't like Kaine or Mccaskill depending on minority voters to turnout to win. Heitcamp in some ways is like Scott Brown. She has a good personality and can win over voters who aren't crazy about Obama.

[stillow1]

02:26 AM on 07/28/2012

You might want to take note of who the pollster is before you get all warm and fuzzy over this result. ND won't be close.....

[gbshabo]

09:11 AM on 07/28/2012

Before you call it a partisan result, you might want to take a look at the internal demographics of this poll. The last Mason-Dixon Poll actually sampled more Democrats than this Democratic poll did. Heitkamp has been running a sterling campaign so far and people like her.