NV-2012 Senate: 51% Heller (R), 42% Berkley (D) (Rasmussen 7/24)

Rasmussen
7/24/12; 500 likely voters; 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Rasmussen Release

Nevada

2012 Senate
51% Heller (R), 42% Berkley (D) (chart)

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Comments

[rockym92]

12:02 AM on 07/28/2012

The Reid machine cleared the field for Berkley. Harry wanted her as the nominee as they have been close for years. The problem is that she isn't a very good candidate and too liberal for NV outside of Vegas. Heller challenged her to numerous debates and the Berkley team declined. Usually a challenger would love to be on stage debating an incumbent. I don't understand it. The ethics case certainly isn't helping her case either.

Her best chance to win is for Obama to win the state by double digits or for Heller to make a couple mistakes.

I don't think the dems need NV to hold onto the senate though. With ME as a likely pickup and a good chance for a takeover in MA that would force the gop to win 5 or more seats. If Obama wins they'd have to sweep the dem held tossups of MO, MT, ND, WI and VA (NE is in the bag). The gop is going to need to steal 1 or 2 of lean/likely dem seats of NM, OH, FL and PA for them to take the senate.

In 2014 the gop will take the senate back though as theyll have about 10 dem seats that they can win to maybe only 1 of their own that the dems can win.

[stillow1]

04:25 PM on 07/28/2012

The Senate looks like to end up etiher 50/50 or 51/49....and the 51/49 can go either way.

[TJampel]

02:35 PM on 07/27/2012

Perhaps Berkeley IS being downgraded by voters because of the ethics investigation (not borne out by previous poll, though).

I don't think they'll find anything. Her own opponent also supported the same kidney research/care funding she advocated for. Sometimes there's just one facility in your district or state doing genuinely worthwhile work in some particular discipline (seems to be the case here); supporting the institution shouldn't be barred just because you're connected to people who work there.

Of course if there are 17 centers all doing good work in NYC and you're a Congressperson and push for funding for the one that your husband happens to hold stock in.....well, that's a proper subject for an ethics investigation.

If the investigation wraps up and she's cleared I expect to see her bounce back. Obama can definitely make a difference in this state with large labor and Hispanic population if he really pushes hard, even though I think he's got it in the bag. I think he'll do just that to energize hispanics, generally, and to give Shelley a better chance for a coattails effect.

[stillow1]

04:10 PM on 07/27/2012

Even if the ethics issues are resolved....it still impacts Berkley enough to really make it difficult for her to beat Heller. Even if she's cleared, the investigation itself probably hurts her just enough with swingy type voters. If Heller were unpopular and not well liked then it would not matter as much....but he's actually a pretty respected guy in the state. I used to think this race would be as close as the MA race, but I'm to the point where I think heller will pull away somewhat and win this race by a fairly decent margin. Heller will do much better than Romney does in the state.

[TJampel]

10:34 PM on 07/27/2012

You're probably correct. on all points And, if we agree on something ....anything...I probably need to rethink what I said. Berkley's only shot is a massive Obama presence and NV's Dem's usual excellent outreach/GOTV with labor and Hispanics I think she'll lose but has a shot if O performs at the top of his potential and puts serious bucks into the state. That MAY happen if Romney continues to behave like an IED in all spontaneous interviews. Looking forward to Israel.....very sensitive folks there; make the Brits seem like Stoics.

Would be amazing if Repubs let BOTH POTUS and Senate get away, when they had it in their grasp. We may end up thanking Snowe (for knowingly turning things over to a Dem ....King being an Obama supporter and virtual Dem) and Mourdock, for being just enough of a jerk to give Ellsworth a fighting chance, where he had absolutely none against Lugar.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:48 PM on 07/27/2012

It isn't anything to do with ethics investigation. I'd be more likely to vote for a candidate who was accused of what she did. Kidney research is a lot more admirable than being a lobbyist for Alec. She is probably not running a good campaign, or perhaps NV has a hard time electing women to statewide office, like MA.

[TJampel]

10:38 PM on 07/27/2012

I think an ethics investigation....ANY ethics investigation for any purpose....puts the subject Congressperson under a cloud, even when it appears obvious that nothing improper was done. That's because those who read the actual facts of the case are few and far between. For everyone else it's simply someone accused of using their office to throw business to family and friends.

[Symanski]

02:25 PM on 07/27/2012

It looks like America is poised to give Obama a second term under GOP congressional control. Should be interesting. It could even be a good thing, assuming the two extremes in both parties come down from their respective stubborn positions and realize we need significant entitlement reform, defense spending cuts, and some adjustments to enhance revenue. I'm still optimistic a divided Washington can work. It did [mostly] throughout Reagan and Clinton's terms.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:48 PM on 07/27/2012

Americans love gridlock for some reason.

[StatsNo1fan]

12:34 PM on 07/28/2012

Not so much as America is poised, as the swing states are. If you go by current polling, B0B0 loses the popular vote by 4-5 points, yet wins the election. I can see that happening, mathematically. Imagine the vitriol he is gonna have all throughout his lame duck term. It would be ugly even if he did narrowly won the popular vote, but losing it by an unprecedentedly sizable margin will make for a very rough tenure.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

02:01 PM on 07/27/2012

Berkley is not a good candidate. I had my doubts about her from the day she was nominated. I have no idea why Democrats didn't find better candidates to run. It is a bad sign when Obama is leading a state by 5 and the Democratic senate candidate trails this bad. I think MA has a good senate candidate, and Maine, will likely be a democratic pickup, based on the candidate's ideology is not with the GOP on most issues. I said that NV MA, WI and Maine are must wins for Dems in the senate, because they can't depend on 5 red states IN, MT MO, ND and NE and their voters to vote for a Democratic senate candidate.

[Symanski]

03:59 PM on 07/27/2012

I've been saying for a while that I think the Senate is gone. It's just political geography, more than anything. It's very hard to defend blue seats in red to purple territory.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:10 PM on 07/27/2012

I'm not so sure. I think Warren has to win for sure for the Democrats to control the house, but I can't believe that with all the strange GOP candidates, especially in Indiana, who is saying that it is okay for people to be denied cancer treatment if they aren't insured. It will backfire in at least one of the states. Dems get one of the 5 red states senate seats, I mentioned, MA, hang on to WI, and hang on to FL, they have it still.