OH-2012 President: 48% Obama (D), 40% Romney (R) (We Ask America 7/24)

We Ask America
7/24/12; 1,115 likely voters; 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
We Ask America Release

Ohio

2012 President
48% Obama (D), 40% Romney (R), 2% Johnson (L) (chart)

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Comments

[AaronTX]

03:00 PM on 07/29/2012

If true, this is a disastrous poll for Romney.

[Joe Pithier]

01:22 PM on 07/27/2012

Seriously, this is starting to bother me. Does ANYONE know where Johnson is and isn't expected to be on the ballot?

[stillow1]

03:35 PM on 07/27/2012

Try checking out his website maybe?

[Joe Pithier]

04:25 PM on 07/27/2012

I did, Stills, and it's not readily apparent there. Ease up. 

[ashenthorn]

03:42 PM on 07/27/2012

Last time around, the libratarian candidate made it to 45 states. Don't know which ones though.

[Joe Pithier]

04:34 PM on 07/27/2012

The only thing that's in the news concerning specific states was a ballot challenge in Michigan. 

[A New Jersey Farmer]

12:23 PM on 07/27/2012

The problem is the candidate, pure and simple. As long as Romney continues to say unnecessarily silly things, his message will not gain traction. The GOP is making some inroads with their "You Didn't Build That" campaign, but like other things that Mitt has said, this one will go by the wayside.

As for the national vs. state polls, do you think that the national pollsters are overpolling red states? Is there any data on this?

[Joe Pithier]

01:16 PM on 07/27/2012

"You Didn't Build That" is "Clinging to Their Guns" 2.0 (only this time it wasn't actually a consequence of Obama being stupid). Playing on your opponent's gaffes only works if you say smart things yourself.

As you point out, Romney's incapable of doing this.

[Symanski]

02:10 PM on 07/27/2012

Romney's truly a terrible candidate, an amalgamation of Dukakis and Kerry in a package less appealing than even that terrible union would imply. Given the state of the US economy and the deep despair that many in this country rightfully feel, a competent challenger should be up 5-10 points over the incumbent. Perhaps Romney will end up there when it most matters, on Election Day, but insulting our closest ally in the entire world, drawing a harsh comeback from David Cameron, of all people, is probably not a good start.

[TJampel]

02:49 PM on 07/27/2012

More than that, it only works (where the attack is false) when the candidate fails to fight back (e.g. Kerry). Obama's team pounces on all of Mitt's mendacious missives with alacrity.

[TJampel]

01:19 PM on 07/27/2012

"Didn't Build That" is a great short term opportunity for Repubs; however, it's fundamentally built on a lie, having taken Obama's statements totally out of context. The statements themselves, when looked at, in their entirety, are not much different than Romney's own statements from a couple of weeks about about how, of course, roads, schools, police, fire, etc. help.

In the short run the Ads can help; in the long run people have a chance to evaluate within context because Obama's team will keep pushing back and showing how mendacious Mitt has been pushing their buttons through selective editing, and how Obama's view of the business success is entirely rooted in reality.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:06 PM on 07/27/2012

I often think Obama is doing better on the state by state polls and Romney is doing better on national polls. I think maybe the GOP Might have wanted to take the Democrats up on doing away with the electoral college after 2000, but one reason the GOP never would is the average costs of running ads in the bluest states is tremendous. NYC, Maryland, NJ, LA, SD, and the Bay area of CA, Seattle, Chicago, and Honolulu are all in expensive areas, and they happen to be in blue states.

[ashenthorn]

04:07 PM on 07/27/2012

I don't think Romney is doing better on national polls. There is only one pollster out there pushing the idea that Romney is winning nationally and that's Scotty Razz - probably so he doesn't lose his guest spots on Fox News. Absent him, the polls have Obama leading nationally by 2-3 points, which is where the race is now and probably will be in November too.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

07:05 PM on 07/27/2012

Well Gallup has had Obama lead by about 1 or 2 on average recently.

[axt113]

06:04 PM on 07/27/2012

Actually the National polls show Obama with the lead, except Rasmussen

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

10:57 PM on 07/27/2012

Rasmussen is a piece of crap.

[Lat1]

11:47 AM on 07/27/2012

Does everyone here appreciate our Anglo Saxon heritage?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

12:08 PM on 07/27/2012

Irish is anglo saxon. Technically, the only presidents without Irish or British ancestry I believe, were the Roosevelt's, and Ike.

[Field Marshall]

01:31 PM on 07/27/2012

I do. Can't imagine what the US would look like it we had been a French colony. You probably hate both of them given they were white.

[Lat1]

11:46 AM on 07/27/2012

Field Marshall,

Now about those attacks on Romney that aren't working...

[Joe Pithier]

01:24 PM on 07/27/2012

Now, now...that's not necessarily the reason for this margin (which is, in itself, awfully fishy). Just as FM shouldn't have assigned "Non-Cause," don't rush to assign Cause.

[TJampel]

02:12 PM on 07/27/2012

As long as there's an outlier to cling to to support their meme, you'll find a wingnut digging its sharpened toenails into it.

[dopper0189]

11:10 AM on 07/27/2012

No Republican has EVER won the White House without winning Ohio. This is Romney's biggest problem, he has been pretty consistently down in Ohio by an average of 4% all year. This is why he is going to select Portman even though many Republican wish he could pick a "dynamic pick" (Ayotte, Jindal, Rubio) necause if he can't win Ohio it just won't matter.

[funkeepickle]

12:01 PM on 07/27/2012

Yep, OH is an insta-win state for Obama. Romney could win all of the other tossups (CO, IA, NH, VA, FL), but if he doesn't win Ohio than he still loses.

Portman would probably be the worst pick possible. He isn't even particularly well-liked in Ohio and he comes with a ton of baggage.

[dopper0189]

01:19 PM on 07/27/2012

Yes I know he is connected to Bush, but Romney will soon be in desperation territory if he can't establish a lead in Ohio. I didn't say Portman was a great pick, but come September he may be the only one.

[Joe Pithier]

01:21 PM on 07/27/2012

That and he's incredibly dull. The dilemma for Romney, of course, is that he is dull as well, so he can't be upstaged.

[Alan Snipes]

10:41 AM on 07/27/2012

Well, it's a Republican pollster saying so. This is what happens during polling. That's why one looks at the average of several polls, not because any one particular pollster is biased.

[Jack30]

10:41 AM on 07/27/2012

At 290 EV, It's Over ! Obama Wins !!

Worried yet, Willard ??? Hum ???

[Joe Pithier]

01:19 PM on 07/27/2012

As a superstitious man, please don't.

[Field Marshall]

10:40 AM on 07/27/2012

19% of Republicans going for Obama? Hmmm... seems a bit of a stretch to me.

Interesting that Romney is up with Indies.

[dopper0189]

11:24 AM on 07/27/2012

They the pollsters found it hard to believe themselves (19% GOP support for BO) so they went back into the field and tested it themselves, confirming their results. The Bain attacks in Ohio maybe doing to Romney what the "gay marriage" ballot initiative drive/attacks on Kerry did in Ohio in 2004. Bush got both 16% of blacks (his best showing in the nation) and a larger share of the Buckeye Democratic vote than any Republican has in the last 20 years in either category. I don't expect Obama to win 19% of the Republican vote in November but Romney has real problems with "Sam's Club Republicans" and evangelicals, if he is still working to consolidate his base in the fall, he is going to lose Ohio.

[PunchingDonkey]

11:28 AM on 07/28/2012

You're right. This poll is great news!! For Mitt Romney!!