FL-2012 President: 51% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT 7/24-7/30)

Quinnipiac University/CBS/New York Times
7/24/12-7/30/12; 1,177 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Quinnipiac release

Florida

2012 President
51% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R) (chart)

2012 Senate
47% Nelson (D), 40% Mack (R) (chart)

Obama Job Approval
48% approve, 48% disapprove (chart)

Comments

[stillow1]

11:43 PM on 08/01/2012

To put this into further context...since so many of you Dems just don't understand how Party ID affects the topline of a poll.

PPP also just released a LV poll of FL. However it used a reasonable sample, it used D+2....and it found a 1 point race. Do you see how the different Party ID has a direct impact on the topline? I take no issue with polls that use reasonable samples, thus you will notice I didn't take any shots on PPP's FL poll....cus they happened to use a reasonable sample which produces a reasonable top line.

I really don't understand why so many of you lefties don't understand the connection between the poll's topline and the sample the topline is based on. The state of FL is a D+4 state, in 2008 FL turnout was D+3...in PPP's poll they found 2012 turnout will be D+2....very very reasonable....whereas this Q poll's sample is way out in la la land.....that is why the results are so different.

[stillow1]

03:54 PM on 08/01/2012

According to the FL state website there are curretnly 11,401,072 registered voters in FL. Of those, 4,125,733 are GOP, 4,565,512 are Dem and 2,709,827 are I/other.

Tha equates to: 36.2%R, 40%D, 23.8% I/other.

In 2008 there were 4,106,743 GOP, 4,800,890 Dem.

That equates to: 36%R, 42.1%D, 30% I/other

So despite Dem Party ID falling from 2008 to 2012, we're supposed to expect that actual Dem turnout is going to go from D+3 in 2008 to D+9 in 2012?

Have fun in fantasy land liberals.............

[Alan Snipes]

04:34 PM on 08/01/2012

Speaking of fantasyland, people may view themselves differently as to party ID in the 4 years since the last Presidential election. Even though they may be registered one way, people don't always change their registration everytime they change parties. That may be why independents are up in this poll compared to the turnout in 2008. Part ID is not static. People change, demographics change.

[stillow1]

04:44 PM on 08/01/2012

That was a non answer. The data here is obvious. Dem Party registration is down...the reason this poll is so off is simple, they way overpolled Obama voters vs Mac voters....Obama wins by 3, ye tthey polled this sample as though Obama won by 12....thats a 9 point overpoll....enough to skew the resutls of this poll badly.

If this were chess, this si where I'd simply say checkmate and happily walk away.

[PunchingDonkey]

08:27 PM on 08/01/2012

Serious question - McCain did much better than Obama among older voters. In the 4 years since the 2008 election, haven't a fair number of them died and a fair number more become unlikely to vote?

[stillow1]

11:16 PM on 08/01/2012

Donkey - Exit data shows Mac won seniors, 65+ by 8 points, 53/45. unless someone wants to claim that "only' Republicans over the age of 65 passed away...and did so in "huge" #'s....then that doesn't come close to explaining such a large oversampling of obama voters....

[Wong23]

02:53 PM on 08/01/2012

Less respondents self identifying as Republicans has more to do with the embarrassing state of the party than having collected a bad sample.

Quinnipiac's methodology is sound. The state of the Republican party is somewhat less.

[stillow1]

03:30 PM on 08/01/2012

That is not the case....the sample consists of an oversample of Obama voters, by a pretty large amount...therefore fewer GOPers are to be expected.

[axt113]

06:22 PM on 08/01/2012

Stillow, after a point you have to face reality, Obama is leading

[Wong23]

02:46 PM on 08/01/2012

Quinnipiac was rated among the very best polling firms in their predictions for the 2010 election results.

[Lat1]

01:59 PM on 08/01/2012

Bad poll because Stillow said so.

[stillow1]

02:24 PM on 08/01/2012

Not cus i said so...cus the sample says so.

[axt113]

06:24 PM on 08/01/2012

So every poll has a bad sample unless it says Romney is leading?

C'mon Stillow, I respect you cause you usually stick to rational arguments, but you've been attacking every single poll that comes out.

After a point you just have to face facts man

[Uchenna Oguekwe]

11:18 AM on 08/01/2012

With the high Dem sample, I don't think the President is ahead by 6, but I do think he is ahead in FL. The Latino vote is going to be crucial as this is a state many believe will be one of the hardest swing states for Obama to win. If he does, it is because the Latino vote gives him the edge. All the more reason why the voter purge law there is highly suspect.

[Alan Snipes]

11:01 AM on 08/01/2012

Ah, the pleasure of data again proving conservatives wrong. The party ID is not significantly different from 2008. Also, these three polls are of LIKELY voters, which on this site we have been perpetually hearing would skew the race towards Romney. Stats, Stillow, FM, Wrong again!

[stillow1]

12:29 PM on 08/01/2012

You shoudl check the sample before posting. It appears to be D+9 and the Obama/McCain split looks to be O+13. When young Democrat children all across the country go to sleep, those are the kind of #'s their parents tell them to dream about....

[Alan Snipes]

01:29 PM on 08/01/2012

It "appears".In Florida, the breakdown was 37% D 32% Ind and 26% Republican.
In 2008 the voting breakdown was 37% D 29% R and 34% In.
In other words, the breakdown of Democrats was the same as the vote in 2008, which is what I said. So, you must be using the Republican "fuzzy math" if this is a plus 9. More people became independent in Florida and less people are Republicans but the number of Democrats remained the same fron 2008.

[runrunrun4fun]

10:24 AM on 08/01/2012

58% in Florida support raising taxes for those making more than $250,000
60% in Ohio
62% in Pennsylvania

Sounds about right to me. Time to get on the bus, Republicans.

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

01:19 PM on 08/01/2012

When it comes to those individual issues, and voters forget about political parties and actual politicians, they actually like raising taxes on the superrich, nevertheless, the GOP has clever tricks to sadly fool a lot of these voters who may like many of the Democratic ideas.

[Field Marshall]

01:20 PM on 08/01/2012

So, by that logic, you support voter ID laws which are favored by more than a 2-1 margin in PA? Get on the short bus runrun!!

[runrunrun4fun]

01:45 PM on 08/01/2012

Site your source.

[runrunrun4fun]

01:45 PM on 08/01/2012

Cite, that is.

[dopper0189]

09:59 AM on 08/01/2012

Dear Republicans:
Spanish language news carries FAR more international news coverage than English language media, committing "gaffes" overseas will therefor get more coverage on them. The Latino share of the Florida electorate is growing and much more of that growth is from Puerto Ricans and Dominican Americans (read: lean Democrats) than it is from Cuban Americans (read: leans Republican). Slowly the Democratic registration numbers are creeping up in Florida. In off year elections minority Democrats (especially non-Cuban Latinos) tend to drop off sharply, but in Presidential years they keep coming back at higher levels.

Even if these numbers are on the high end of Obama's results, the fact that multiple polls are showing him ahead in a state that he doesn't need to win but Romney MUST win shows why Obama at this point is still the favorite to win re-election.

[Field Marshall]

09:48 AM on 08/01/2012

D+9 sample. In 2008 it was D+3. If anything, a 6 point shift should be towards the R, not the D. Laughable sample.

CBS and NYT apparently didn't improve the quality of their polls by switching pollster or they are pushing Quinn on the samples to fit their ideological narrative.

[runrunrun4fun]

10:21 AM on 08/01/2012

Where do you get that?

Here's the question I find:

Are you registered as a Republican, Democrat, some other party, or are you not affiliated with any party?
Rep Dem
7/24-30/12 FL 36 42 1 20 1
OH 35 42 - 20 2
PA 40 46

Thats D+6 in FL, D+7 in Ohio and D+6 in PA

[ThomasBurns]

11:48 AM on 08/01/2012

Don't use that statistic, use the one on page 9. Did you vote for Obama in 2008. The samples are FL Obama 53% McCain 40%. OH 53/38 and PA 54/40 the actual election showed FL 52/48, OH 52/47, PA 54/44. this poll is totally flawed.

[runrunrun4fun]

10:22 AM on 08/01/2012

Found it...never mind.

[WhatHaveRepublicansDone]

09:47 AM on 08/01/2012

Ouch, ouch, ouch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[A New Jersey Farmer]

09:40 AM on 08/01/2012

Big D margins in all three polls, so the lead is probably not as large as the headlines suggest. Still very good news for Obama.

[Symanski]

09:02 AM on 08/01/2012

Reagan was behind by 56 points on August 1, 1980.

[Xenobion]

12:04 PM on 08/01/2012

lol

[runrunrun4fun]

08:57 AM on 08/01/2012

Quinnipiac is a trusted pollster from the conservatives in this crowd. With that being said and in min, how will you discredit this poll today?

A comment that is made is that everyone will "start coming home" once people start paying attention. This question and answer would lead me to believe that people are pretty engaged at this point:

How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for
President - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
A lot Some Only a little None
7/24-30/12 FL 60 25 11 4
OH 54 31 10 4
PA 54 33 11 2

And 100% of these individuals will "definitely" vote.