WASHINGTON -- In London, where they're busy betting on the Olympics, you also can get 11-8 odds on Tim Pawlenty as Mitt Romney's vice presidential choice. The odds are 2-1 on Sen. Rob Portman and 7-1 on Sen. Marco Rubio. If you've got English pounds to waste, you can get 100-1 on Rep. Michele Bachmann or former Gov. Sarah Palin.

On this side of the pond, Intrade "investors" have made Portman the favorite, assessing the Ohio senator's chance of getting the Romney veep nod at 30.9 percent, followed by Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota and sleep-inducing presidential contender, at 25.7 percent. Rubio of Florida sits at 9 percent.

But right now, the odds maker who counts is a 55-year-old lawyer from suburban Boston named Beth Myers. Trained in law at Southern Methodist University and a powerful Texas law firm -- and schooled in hand-to-hand political combat by Republican puppet master Karl Rove -- Myers ran Romney's 2008 presidential campaign and months ago was detailed to oversee the campaign's highly secretive vice presidential selection process.

Only two people know fully whom and what she has been examining. She is one of them. Mitt Romney is the other.

And the main question they are asking each other (and will soon ask others in the inner circle) is not who will help them the most, but who presents the least risk?

As game-changing campaign forces -- a home run in the late innings -- vice presidential picks are vastly overrated. They can occasionally provide complementary mood music or a percentage point or two in their state, though rarely enough to bring unexpected victory there.

More generally, they are remembered as campaign risks: Thomas Eagleton, Dan Quayle, Dick Cheney (in 2004), Joe Lieberman, Palin. Former Sen. John Edwards was unique -- a retroactive embarrassment.

Knowing this history and knowing their candidate, and believing that the bleak economy makes it their campaign to lose, Romney's team are likely to take a political Hippocratic oath: Do no harm.

The process is reaching a crescendo now, with an announcement expected soon. This past Friday, as a tease and perhaps a distraction, Myers sent an #ff tweet that listed the names of 13 possible choices, at least one of whom, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, must have been included for entertainment purposes.

Myers has been mum on the process, other than to say a while ago that it would be meticulous and thorough. In that, she would follow her boss. Romney is said never to have seen a spreadsheet or a complex business report that he didn't want to read.

Myers' brief comment also was implicitly criticizing the process of four years ago, when Romney was on the receiving end of what turned out to be Sen. John McCain's hurried, unvetted and ultimately troubling choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

So what are Romney and Myers looking for? Recent presidential campaign history, combined with a sense of the sentiment in the campaign's Boston headquarters, points in one direction: safety.

It's easy enough to see the upsides of the main contenders. Portman, for example, has experience in government and hails from what is arguably this year's most pivotal state, Ohio. Pawlenty has Midwestern working-class roots and won the I-Love-Mitt fawn-a-thon by getting out of the nomination race before it began. Another relatively risk-free possibility is Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, who has spent more than a decade in Congress (a drawback) but has been a cypher there (a virtue).

Others have their obvious appeal: Rubio, a Cuban-American, could attract Hispanic voters. Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana would be the first South Asian on a national ticket. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin is beloved by the new, obstreperous Tea Party base of the party.

But attorney Myers is less interested in the theoretical upside than the actual downside. She wants to know -- and probably does know -- whatever it is that Democratic opposition researchers want to know -- and probably do know -- about the GOP veep choices.

McCain's fiasco was only the latest example of what happens when you take a chance on the unknown. Palin, a theatrical hit at the convention in St. Paul, Minn., fizzled as a force by Election Day.

The searing example before that was in 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush was talked into picking a young, untested and unknown Indiana senator named Dan Quayle. Since no one really knew him, including people in the Bush campaign, the media and Democrats filled in the blanks at will.

"It was like throwing a hot dog in a shark tank," recalled Roger Ailes, the Fox News boss who was Bush's media adviser at the time.

The sharks are even more ferocious than they were a generation ago, and thanks to the growth of the Internet and social media they are far more numerous.

So who would or wouldn't get eaten alive?

A Huffington Post review of the risks of leading GOP veep contenders demonstrates why Portman and Pawlenty top the betting odds -- and why they are thought to be on the Mitt-Myers short list. Neither is known for drama or scandal. Both are solidly conservative without being Tea Party confrontationalists. Both are colorless, odorless and tasteless enough to make Romney look charismatic by comparison.

On the other end of the spectrum (not counting Newt) is Rubio. If half the questions that have arisen about his personal and political finances turned out to be valid, Rubio wouldn't be a hot dog in the shark tank; he'd be the whole hog.

One theory has him penciled in for keynote speaker in Tampa instead.

Melissa Bendixen and Erin Mershon contributed reporting.

See the slide show for an "oppo" summary on GOP veep contenders.

Also on HuffPost:

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  • Tim Pawlenty

    Tim Pawlenty's record as governor of Minnesota is more controversial than his bland persona would suggest. When he took office in 2003, the state's budget deficit was $4.5 billion. When he left office, he claimed a surplus of $399 million, but he got there by pushing education expenses into future years. For fiscal 2013, the state has to close a $1.9 billion deficit. One of Pawlenty's budget moves led to a lawsuit, which he lost. Judge Kathleen Gearin ruled that he had <a href="http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/10/29/lawsuit-pawlenty-cuts/" target="_hplink">exceeded "his constitutional authority</a> in making unilateral spending cuts to a $5.3-million special dietary program." During his tenure as governor, Minnesota's unemployment rate rose from 4.6 percent in January 2003 to 7.1 percent in November 2010. Pawlenty claims not to have raised taxes as governor; he does not mention that "fees" went up nearly $900 million. In 2002, Pawlenty's first gubernatorial campaign was <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/vice-president-pawlenty-attacks-democrats/story?id=16859592&page=3" target="_hplink">fined $600,000</a> for violating campaign finance coordination rules. It was the largest fine in state history. Some of Pawlenty's past comments could also cause him problems now. He criticized Mitt Romney's Massachusetts health care plan as "Obamneycare." He once supported a cap-and-trade policy for greenhouse gas emissions -- another Romney no-no. About the latter, Pawlenty has since claimed that he made a <a href="http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/pawlenty-hopes-im-sorry-is-enough/" target="_hplink">"mistake."</a>

  • Rob Portman

    Ohio Sen. Rob Portman's biggest drawback is his longtime association with the Bush family, not necessarily a plus either within the GOP or with swing voters. Neither former President Bush will be attending the GOP convention. Portman began his career with Vice President George H.W. Bush as an advance man. He worked in the White House counsel's office after Bush won and then as director of the White House Office of Legislative Affairs until 1991. Later, he was an influential campaigner for George W. Bush. According to the <em>Cincinnati Enquirer</em>, as a member of the House, Portman "had closer ties" to the second Bush's administration "than just about any member of Congress." Indeed, he went on to serve the second Bush as the U.S. trade representative and as head of the Office of Management and Budget. His time as head of the OMB from May 2006 to June 2007 is controversial. The <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/99516970/American-Bridge-Portman-Book" target="_hplink">national debt increased by $500 billion</a> during that time. Portman also repeatedly voted to raise the debt ceiling as a representative and a senator -- an unappealing record to conservative Republicans. Portman worked for the law and lobbying firm Patton Boggs as a foreign lobbyist in 1985. Patton Boggs' clients then included Haiti, Guatemala and the government of the Sultanate of Oman.

  • Bobby Jindal

    If Romney wants to think outside the box, he need look no farther than Louisiana, where Bobby Jindal is governor. An Indian-American, Jindal would be the first person of color on a Republican national ticket. He is a conservative Catholic, although some of his more fervent religious beliefs might need explaining. Jindal wrote an article for the <em>New Oxford Review</em> entitled "<a href="http://www.newoxfordreview.org/article.jsp?did=1294-jindal" target="_hplink">Physical Dimensions of Spiritual Warfare</a>" about an "actual" exorcism he witnessed in college. Concerns have been raised about links between his wife's charitable foundation and the actions of his administration. Many organizations that lobbied the state government also gave to the Supriya Jindal Foundation for Louisiana's Children. The <a href="http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/03/how-bad-bobby-jindal-charity-scandal/35582/" target="_hplink"><em>Atlantic</em> Wire</a> reports, "After Jindal's administration signed off on Marathon Oil's request to increase its oil refinery's output, the oil giant committed $250,000 to the foundation." Gov. Jindal's decisions on health care and education spending are controversial, even in his conservative Southern state. His administration recently cut $329 million from the Louisiana State University hospital system, an amount that, according to <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-24/la-dot-lawmakers-criticize-few-details-in-health-cuts" target="_hplink"><em>Bloomberg Businessweek</em></a>, represents "one-quarter of its entire budget for the fiscal year that began July 1." And the Louisiana Federation of Teachers <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/01/us-education-vouchers-idUSL1E8H10AG20120601" target="_hplink">filed a lawsuit</a> against the Jindal administration over recently passed legislation that will shift millions of dollars out of the public education system.

  • Paul Ryan

    Rep. Paul Ryan's claim to fame is also his biggest liability: his federal budget plan. As chairman of the House Budget Committee and a sweeping thinker on tax and spending issues, he came up with a plan that is either brave or foolhardy, depending on your point of view. His "Roadmap for America's Future" would slash both taxes and spending. In theory, it would halve the budget deficit by 2020. But there are catches. Ryan's plan would cut deeply into Medicare, education and other social spending. And his claim of budgetary savings requires one to ignore the tax side of the ledger. If lowered taxes are taken into account, Ryan's bottom-line deficit is about the same as the one under President Barack Obama's plan. The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=2" target="_hplink"><em>New York Times</em></a> suggested that "the Roadmap wouldn't reduce the deficit. All it would do is cut benefits for the middle class while slashing taxes on the rich." Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/story/2012-04-17/catholic-bishops-paul-ryan-budget/54361480/1?csp=34news" target="_hplink">U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops</a> has criticized Ryan's plan, saying that it "fails to meet these moral criteria" of protecting the poor. The bishops also stated that Ryan's assertion that Catholic social teachings inspired his ideas for the budget was misguided. Ryan claims that under his budget proposals "all federal spending aside from Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will fall from 12.5 percent of GDP in 2011 to 3.75 percent of GDP in 2050." But Ezra Klein of the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-unrealistic-assumptions-behind-paul-ryans-budget-numbers/2011/08/25/gIQAEZrePS_blog.html" target="_hplink"><em>Washington Post</em></a> finds this claim unrealistic because defense spending alone has never fallen below 3 percent of GDP -- and Mitt Romney doesn't want to let it fall below 4 percent.

  • Marco Rubio

    Handsome and articulate, the Spanish-speaking son of Cuban immigrants, the Florida senator looks like a terrific veep candidate on paper -- until you read that paper. Since 2001, Marco Rubio stands accused of having <a href="http://www.theledger.com/article/20100918/NEWS/9185023?p=all&tc=pgall" target="_hplink">personally profited</a> multiple times from legislative dealings and campaign funds. For example, months after he helped secure an additional $20 million state budget allocation for Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami, he was given a consulting contract and paid $8,000 monthly. During his campaign to become speaker of the Florida House of Representatives in 2003, Rubio created the Floridians for Conservative Leadership political committee. But he "did not wait for the state to authorize the committee before accepting campaign donations. The committee listed its address as Rubio's home, a modest place he and his wife bought in West Miami in 2002, but reported spending nearly $85,000 in office and operating costs and $65,000 for administrative costs," according to the <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/marco-rubios-personal-finances-clash-with-call-for-fiscal-discipline/1129566" target="_hplink"> <em>Tampa Bay Times</em></a>. Also in 2003, that committee, supposedly created to support other Republicans, spent "nearly $150,000 on administrative and operating costs and made only $2,000 in candidate contributions," said the <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/marco-rubios-lavish-rise-to-the-top/1079473" target="_hplink"><em>Tampa Bay Times</em> in 2010</a>. "Over 18 months, only $4,000 went to candidates other than Rubio, while similar political committees gave tens of thousands of dollars to candidates. Rubio spent the biggest chunk of the committee's money, $89,000, on political consultants, $14,000 in reimbursements to himself, and more than $51,000 in credit card expenses." Questions were raised in 2010 about whether Rubio and two former state GOP officials personally benefited from spending with their GOP American Express cards without reporting or paying taxes on the additional income. According to the <em>St. Petersburg Times</em>, Rubio charged more than $100,000 from 2006 to 2008 to the state GOP credit card for travel expenses and meals. Moreover, Rubio appears to have embellished his family's history, telling a story of how his parents fled from Fidel Castro. But the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/marco-rubios-compelling-family-story-embellishes-facts-documents-show/2011/10/20/gIQAaVHD1L_singlePage.html" target="_hplink"><em>Washington Post</em> reports</a> otherwise, saying that records show his parents came to the United States more than two and a half years before Castro took power.

  • Bob McDonnell

    Bob McDonnell's appeal is his rock-solid roots in the Bible Belt, but they may be too deep to make him useful in swing states such as Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado. The governor of Virginia is an outspoken foe of abortion and gay marriage. When McDonnell took office in 2010, he rolled back former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine's non-discrimination employment policy. Under McDonnell's new policy, <a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02/virginia-gov-bob-mcdonnell-rolls-back-non-discrimination-protections-for-gay-state-workers.php?ref=fpblg " target="_hplink">gay and lesbian state workers</a> were no longer specifically protected against discrimination. McDonnell is a product of Regent University, a fundamentalist, evangelical institution founded by the television evangelist Pat Robertson. In 1989, McDonnell wrote a 93-page thesis titled "The Republican Party's Vision for the Family: The Compelling Issue of the Decade." In it, the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/29/AR2009082902434.html " target="_hplink"><em>Washington Post</em> reports</a>, McDonnell "described working women and feminists as 'detrimental' to the family. He said government policy should favor married couples over 'cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators.' He described as 'illogical' a 1972 Supreme Court decision legalizing the use of contraception by unmarried couples." More recently, McDonnell has had trouble handling other social issues. In February 2012, minutes before a vote in the Virginia House of Delegates, he <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/29/us-abortion-virginia-idUSTRE81S0DR20120229" target="_hplink">hastily rescinded</a> his support for a clause that would have required some women to undergo an intrusive vaginal probe before getting an abortion. Even though he rescinded his support, McDonnell was widely criticized and even ridiculed. He said he <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/24/va-governor-bob-mcdonnell_n_1299348.html" target="_hplink">had not realized</a> exactly what the bill entailed when he gave his support. He claimed that, as governor, "You're so busy advocating your agenda, you don't read every legislator's bill." Race has sometimes caused him problems as well. The NAACP -- and even political supporters such as BET co-founder Sheila Johnson -- criticized him in 2010 for failing to mention slavery in his proclamation of Virginia's Confederate History Month. Just one day later, McDonnell admitted that leaving out the struggle against slavery was a "major omission," and he released an amended proclamation.

  • Chris Christie

    New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has a temper problem. His most recent outburst came in July while vacationing with his family in Seaside Heights, N.J. A passerby blurted out a critical statement about Christie's education policies. He <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/06/chris-christie-jersey-shore_n_1654583.html" target="_hplink">shot back</a> at the man, "You're a real big shot. You're a real big shot shooting your mouth off." He then charged the heckler and told him to "keep walking away. Keep walking." Earlier that week, Christie had insulted a reporter, asking if he was "stupid" and calling him an "idiot." Earlier this year, the governor engaged in a heated debate with a former Navy SEAL, which turned to name-calling when the SEAL kept pressing his point. Christie ordered the veteran, who also was a law student, out of the room and <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/09/christie-argues-with-veteran_n_1334963.html" target="_hplink">declared</a>, "If you decide what you want to do is put on a show today, let me tell you something, I can go back and forth with you as much as you want. And let me tell you something, after you graduate from law school, you conduct yourself like that in a court room, your rear end's gonna get thrown in jail, idiot." Beyond his loose mouth, Christie has bigger problems. According to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/nyregion/christie-takes-credit-for-new-jerseys-economy.html" target="_hplink"><em>New York Times</em></a>, "When Mr. Christie took office, the state unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, ranking 35th in the nation. Now the rate is 9.6 percent, ranking 48th." New Jersey is the second wealthiest state, yet it is falling behind in the national economic recovery and coming up short of revenue projections. Christie predicted that the state's revenue would increase 7.3 percent this year. Other analysts have crunched the numbers and are nowhere near as optimistic.

  • Kelly Ayotte

    Sen. Kelly Ayotte fell easily into place next to Mitt Romney when he campaigned in her state of New Hampshire, and she's made quite an effort to put a friendly female face on his campaign. But the first-term senator has some chapters in her short career that might require closer reading. As state attorney general, Ayotte was a strong gun-rights advocate, a congenial position in New Hampshire, but not necessarily among swing voters in, say, Colorado. A devout pro-life advocate, she <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kelly-ayotte-r-nh/gIQA6LfTKP_topic.html" target="_hplink">fought</a> for parental notification of teen abortions and argued the position in numerous court cases. She prosecuted two high-profile murder cases, controversially seeking the death penalty in a state that <a href="http://www.concordmonitor.com/article/219364/justices-to-compare-sentences?CSAuthResp=1343760271%3A93e1dp9r2u9cvhb22hifgh9ds5%3ACSUserId%7CCSGroupId%3Aapproved%3AD2ECB3C45316D12B26C5896865269810&CSUserId=94&CSGroupId=1" target="_hplink">has not executed a criminal</a> in 70 years. In one case, the defendant is appealing the penalty. In the other, a jury sentenced the man to life without parole instead. Her decision to seek the ultimate punishment drew <a href="http://www.bluehampshire.com/diary/11122/nh-prosecutors-on-ayottes-death-penalty-politicization" target="_hplink">criticism</a> from members of both parties. The state's current attorney general, along with a GOP gubernatorial candidate, <a href="http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/news/768152-196/ayotte-id-have-acted-if-i-knew.html?i=1" target="_hplink">has lambasted</a> Ayotte for her failure to investigate charges against the firm Financial Resources Mortgage, which was accused of stealing about $100 million from investors. Lack of experience is another drawback. Ayotte has just two campaigns under her belt. In her 2010 Senate race, she was quickly embraced by conservative superstar Sarah Palin and had an early lead, but barely won the GOP Senate nomination, with <a href="http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7264/nhsen-hodes-within-3-of-ayotte-with-a-sarah-palin-assist" target="_hplink">less than 2,000 votes</a>. Her <a href="http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/newsstatenewengland/882952-227/hodes-far-behind-ayotte-in-the-all-important.html" target="_hplink">general election</a> contest against Democrat Paul Hodes was also tight, despite her early lead and considerable fundraising advantage. Hodes' focus on Ayotte's tenure as attorney general was enough to boost his standing in the polls.

  • John Thune

    Known for his lean good looks, small-town manners and congeniality, South Dakota Sen. John Thune has the conservative credentials and safe, bland personality to accompany Romney on stage. His weakness may be his thoroughly political r&eacutesum&eacute. He has virtually no experience outside government. And he has few concrete legislative accomplishments to boast, despite those years of service. Political from the get-go, Thune <a href="http://www.thune.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/biography" target="_hplink">started out</a> as an aide to Sen. James Abdnor (R-S.D.) in 1985. When Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) took Abdnor's place, Thune followed his boss to the Small Business Administration under President Ronald Reagan. By 1989, he had returned home to serve as executive director of the South Dakota Republican Party. Thune was next appointed railroad director of South Dakota, where he spent two years before moving on to become executive director of the South Dakota Municipal League. He won his first election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1996, serving three terms before running for the Senate. He lost narrowly to Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.) and then, in 2004, came back to defeat Daschle, the Senate minority leader, in an even <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2004/nov/03/nation/na-senators3" target="_hplink">tougher battle</a>. Together, the candidates spent nearly $40 million to overwhelm South Dakota voters with negative ads. Few of Daschle's criticisms had to do with Thune himself; the race was largely framed as a contest between the establishment party leader and the inexperienced newcomer. In the end, Thune's triumph over Daschle was so thorough that no one, Democrat or Republican, ran against him in 2010. His voting record in office is <a href="http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/01/29/who-is-john-thune-and-why-is-he-on-the-gop-2012-short-list-for-p/" target="_hplink">unsurprisingly conservative</a> and consistent, although he did vote for the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008. In a 2009 profile in the <em>New York Times</em>, columnist David Brooks <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/13/opinion/13brooks.html" target="_hplink">wrote</a> that what is notable about Thune is what is lacking: His conservatism does not include angry rants or radical proposals. So perhaps Thune can rally conservatives without scaring off the less intense.