A Pennsylvania law that would turn away voters who don't have a valid photo ID would disproportionately suppress voting in Philadelphia's minority neighborhoods, according to a new study.

The study compared lists of people in the state's ID database with its voter rolls. Officials found that a staggering 1.3 million of Pennsylvania's 8.2 million voters -- more than 1 in 7 -- didn't appear to have valid state IDs. In Philadelphia alone, the figure was 362,000 voters, or about 1 in 3.

Those numbers almost certainly exaggerate the sheer size of the problem; the Philadelphia Inquirer, for instance, raised serious doubts about the state's methodology after finding false hits for people with any form of punctuation in their names. But even if the scale of the numbers is off, their distribution shows troubling variances among the city's ethnically and racially distinct neighborhoods.

Tamara Manik-Perlman, an analyst at Azavea, a Philadelphia geospatial software firm, plotted the addresses of people the state says are registered to vote but don't have valid ID, and found that voters who live in the the city’s most heavily African American census tracts are 85 percent more likely to lack a valid ID than a voter who lives in a predominantly white area.

Voters who live in heavily Hispanic areas, meanwhile, were 108 percent more likely to lack the right ID than those in white neighborhoods, Manik-Perlman said.

A heat map charting the percentage of potentially disenfranchised voters in each precinct in Pennsylvania, compiled by the AFL-CIO, also shows clear concentrations in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas.

"It's clear to me that the intent of the law was to hit Philadelphia in just this way, in a disparate way," said Stephanie Singer, the chair of Philadelphia's election commission. Voter fraud is not the problem, she said. "The problem is that democracy is in a crisis in this country and the way we solve it is by connecting people to elections, not pushing people away from elections."

Republicans across the country have been pushing for stricter voter ID rules at polling places as one of a series of measures ostensibly intended to address the issue of voter fraud. But because that is so self-evidently a ruse -- in-person voter fraud, in particular, is incredibly rare -- the public is left to discern their true goals from the effects of their actions. And the evidence clearly suggests that the effect of their actions is to disenfranchise millions of mostly minority, poor or young voters, who are demographically more likely to vote Democrat.

Other tactics Republican state legislators and governors have recently pursued include the intimidation of voter registration groups and the purges of voter rolls.

Pennsylvania's Republican-controlled legislature passed the voter ID law in March, but its fate is uncertain. A state judge is expected to rule in the next few days on a case brought by voter advocacy groups claiming it violates the Pennsylvania constitution.

State officials have conceded that they had no evidence of prior in-person voter fraud, or any reason to believe that such a thing would be more likely without a voter ID law. The state's top election official, a Republican, acknowledged at trial that she didn't really know what the law said.

Contrast that with the recent comment by the Pennsylvania House Republican leader that passage of the state’s voter ID bill “is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania.”

Most states at this point don't require a photo ID for voting. Pennsylvania's law is one of the five strictest in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, because it only accepts a limited number of official IDs, and doesn't include IDs that have been expired for more than a year.

The U.S. Department of Justice is also investigating whether the law discriminates against minorities. The Voting Rights Act of 1965, renewed by Congress in 2006, prohibits states from imposing any qualification for voting "that has the purpose of or will have the effect of diminishing the ability of any citizens of the United States on account of race or color."

One of the most effective champions of voter ID bills has until recently been the American Legislative Exchange Council, a group funded by major corporations to create and pursue model bills with a right-wing agenda at the state level. ALEC announced it was getting out of the social policy business after public exposure of the group's role in passing so-called "stand your ground" bills of the kind that were widely condemned after the shooting of Florida teenager Trayvon Martin.

Taking up the battle where ALEC left off is the National Center for Public Policy Research, a right-wing think tank best known as one of convicted felon and former lobbyist Jack Abramoff's favorite front groups for funneling money from clients and paying for favors to elected officials and their staff.

The center last week posted an article arguing that voter fraud is widespread and that it particularly victimizes the "the poor, minorities, the sick, the old, and other vulnerable members of society." But its only evidence was one case in New York where Democrats allegedly forged absentee ballots from disadvantaged voters in a primary. A voter ID law wouldn't have made any difference.

Nevertheless, the article was picked up and mischaracterized by conservative news organizations as evidence that voter ID laws would benefit minorities.

The findings of the Philadelphia study, by contrast, are consistent with previous research that incontrovertibly show voter ID laws making it harder for poorer and minority voters to vote.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article incorrectly asserted that the National Center for Public Policy Research funneled Jack Abramoff's money directly to elected officials.

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  • Pennsylvania

    You're an average voter in Pennsylvania. The night before Election Day, your wallet goes missing, leaving you without immediate access to any of the identification you'll need to vote at your local precinct the following morning. This would be a problem under <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#PA" target="_hplink">Pennsylvania's proposed photo ID law</a>, since <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/pennsylvania-voter-id-ruling_n_1919187.html" target="_hplink">blocked by a state judge</a>. While many people in this situation may have backup forms of identification, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/05/pennsylvania-voter-id-law_n_1652469.html" target="_hplink">studies have shown</a> that a significant percentage of would-be voters don't. The state's safeguard against the immediate disenfranchisement of people in this situation would be a provisional ballot cast on the day of the election. But this doesn't mean your vote counts, yet. Anyone who casts a provisional ballot is required to "appear in person at the county board of elections" within six days of the vote to provide proof that their ballot was valid. If you're able to take time away from your job to do this, the process still requires a would-be voter to either show up with valid ID -- a replacement driver's license <a href="http://www.dmv.state.pa.us/fees/index.shtml" target="_hplink">would cost $36</a> and considerable time -- or to <a href="http://www.dmv.state.pa.us/pdotforms/voterid/VoterAffirmationNoProofofID.pdf" target="_hplink">sign an affirmation</a> that you are indigent and not able to afford the fees associated with acquiring a photo ID. Even if you make a rapid and somewhat expensive turnaround to get a replacement ID -- or alternatively swear under oath that you are too poor to pay for such a document -- there is no guarantee that your vote will end up counting. Many elections are largely decided before provisional voters have a chance to verify their validity, which could serve to discouraging them from following up with election officials or leave them effectively disenfranchised. In 2008, <a href="http://www.eac.gov/assets/1/Documents/2008 Election Administration and Voting Survey EAVS Report.pdf" target="_hplink">only 61.8 percent</a> of all provisional ballots cast were fully counted. If strict photo ID measures were implemented, however, the number of provisional ballots submitted would likely increase, as would the requirements for voters hoping to make them count. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Georgia

    Eleven percent of eligible voters say they lack current government-issued photo IDs, a <a href="http://www.brennancenter.org/page/-/d/download_file_39242.pdf" target="_hplink">survey</a> on the potential impact of voter ID laws found. You live in Georgia and you're one of them. Like 66,515 other Georgians, according to a <a href="http://brennan.3cdn.net/773c569439b50452e0_kzm6bo5l6.pdf" target="_hplink">recent study</a> from the Brennan Center for Justice, you also lack vehicle access and live more than 10 miles from an office that issues state ID. As a registered voter who's skipped the past few elections, you decide you'll vote this year. But you spend your life working multiple jobs to provide for your family, not tuned in to a news cycle that may have told you about a voter ID law that changed the requirements. If you were aware of the measure, you'd know that you have to get yourself to a state office during business hours to procure a photo ID in order to vote. According to the Brennan Center, these facilities are often only open part time, especially in areas with the highest concentration of people of color and in poverty. While the state does offer a free photo ID initiative, the Brennan Center points out that many of the offices provide confusing or inaccurate information about what Georgians need to do to get one. This may be a tough task as you juggle a strenuous work schedule with other commitments -- and that's assuming you're aware of the requirement. But you're not, so you head to your voting precinct on election day with no access to an acceptable form of identification and vote with a provisional ballot. To <a href="http://sos.georgia.gov/gaphotoid/3679BasicVotingInfo_printer final.pdf" target="_hplink">verify that ballot</a>, you'll have two days to present appropriate photo ID at your county registrar's office, which at this point wouldn't be doable. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Tennessee

    As an elderly Tennessee resident, you've made a decades-long Election Day habit of traveling to your local polling place and exercising your franchise. It's an important day for you, and it gives you the rare opportunity to leave your house, where you live alone. For a number of years, you've had an identification card that allows you to vote. But thanks to the state's strict new voter ID law, that document will no longer be sufficient. Reports <a href="http://www.wbir.com/news/article/185824/2/Tennessee-voter-ID-law-awaits-effect-on-seniors" target="_hplink">found</a> that 230,000 Tennesseans older than 60 possess driver's licenses that don't have photos on them. Such ID will not be accepted at polling places in November. While the state has agreed to issue photo IDs free to anyone who asks, a <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/12/tennessee-voter-id-law-program_n_1669323.html" target="_hplink">recent study</a> found that only a tiny percentage of potential targets have applied. Perhaps that's because people like you weren't aware of exactly how the change was going to affect them. Maybe you weren't even aware of the change. Poll workers tell you that you can cast a provisional ballot on Election Day. You'll <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#tn" target="_hplink">have until</a> "the close of business on the second business day after the election" to find an applicable piece of identification -- which you don't have -- and present it to a designated elections official. Whether it's your lack of an acceptable form of identification, the difficulty in finding transportation back to the elections official, or the prospect of having to go through the drain of the entire process again, you're discouraged, and give up. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Kansas

    You're a resident of Kansas in your early 60s, fully expecting to vote in November. Your driver's license is your primary form of ID, but you rarely carry it anymore. You don't drive and you haven't traveled abroad in years, leaving your passport expired or lost. In the months before the election, you changed addresses, and for some reason never received a notification from the state reminding you that your license had expired. On the day of the election, you head to your polling place, unaware that you're about to be told your license is expired and therefore invalid according to the state's new voter ID law (Kansans over the age of 65 can use expired IDs, but you're not there yet). You're given a provisional ballot and informed that <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#Kansas" target="_hplink">you must</a> now "provide a valid form of identification to the county election officer in person or provide a copy by mail or electronic means before the meeting of the county board of canvassers." While Kansas says it has <a href="http://www.wycokck.org/Internet2010ElectionBanner.aspx?menu_id=1092&banner=27765&id=26946" target="_hplink">historically counted</a> around 70 percent of its provisional ballots, this year provides a different landscape. The next steps can be somewhat difficult, and with the enacting of the state's photo ID law, the use of such ballots will undoubtedly become more commonplace. Faced with disenfranchisement, you must now race against the clock to have your vote included. With no other acceptable forms of ID available, you go about the process of renewing your license. <a href="http://www.ksrevenue.org/renewingdl.html" target="_hplink">According to the state</a>, this requires you to make your way to a state office, where you'll have to provide a number of identifying documents and pay the fee. By the time you can find someone to chauffeur you through this process -- public transportation is complex and unreliable where you live, <a href="http://www.kansas.com/2012/07/24/2418365/voter-id-law-burdens-wichita.html" target="_hplink">even if you're in an urban center</a> -- most of the major election results have been announced on the news. You decide the undertaking isn't worth the time. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Indiana

    You're a first-time voter in Indiana who <a href="https://forms.in.gov/Download.aspx?id=9341" target="_hplink">registered to vote</a> at the Bureau of Motor Vehicles using your Social Security number, a process that also <a href="http://www.in.gov/bmv/2339.htm" target="_hplink">required you</a> to get a state identification card, which you placed in your wallet. As a recent high school graduate who commutes with other workers to your full time job on a farm, you rarely need to present identification, so you didn't even bother to get a new ID card when it went missing from your locker a few weeks before the election. You risk potential firing when you travel to your polling place with other members of your community on voting day, but you're intent on participating in your first election. Without valid photo ID, however, you don't get to pull the lever. Under Indiana's new photo ID law, you're instead required to fill out a provisional ballot. But you're told you'll still need to jump through additional hoops that could prove too demanding. Now tasked with making visits during business hours to both the Indiana BMV to <a href="http://www.dmv.com/in/indiana/drivers-license-replacement" target="_hplink">get a replacement ID</a>, and then to the <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx#in" target="_hplink">county elections board</a> to verify your ballot, you decide keeping your job is more important than voting. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>

  • Pennsylvania, Part II

    Viviette Applewhite was the lead plaintiff in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Pennsylvania's new voter ID measure. She's a 93-year-old great-great grandmother who has voted regularly for decades. She claimed she didn't have access to any of the documents she'd need to vote. With no driver's license and no birth certificate, needed to get a photo ID, Applewhite said she'd be disenfranchised by the law. And she wasn't the only one. A <a href="http://www.aclupa.org/legal/legaldocket/applewhiteetalvcommonwealt/voteridclients.htm" target="_hplink">number of other plantiffs in the ACLU case</a> against Pennsylvania's photo ID law claimed they had been unsuccessful in attempts to get copies of their birth certificates and other papers due to complexities in the state's record-keeping. Most claimed the measure would take away their vote. The law has since been blocked for this election cycle.

  • Georgia, Part II

    You're a longtime resident of Georgia, but you've just recently returned home from a six-month out-of-town assignment from your job. You get into town on the Monday before Election Day. Most of your possessions are still being shipped from halfway across the country. Old friends invite you to a bar to catch up, but in the process of removing your driver's license from your wallet to present to a bouncer, it cracks in half, leaving it officially invalidated. Without a valid license, you won't be able to cast a ballot the next day. You'd renew it and choke down the $20 or more fee <a href="http://www.dmv.org/ga-georgia/id-cards.php#Replacing-an-ID-Card-" target="_hplink">for the replacement</a>, but the documents you need to present are in the moving truck. An election official informs you that you can fill out a provision ballot on Election Day. To <a href="http://sos.georgia.gov/gaphotoid/3679BasicVotingInfo_printer final.pdf" target="_hplink">verify that ballot</a>, you'll have two days afterward to present appropriate photo ID at your county registrar's office. Either you're telling the moving company to drive twice the speed limit for the next 48 hours straight, or you're accepting your disenfranchisement. <em>(Photo: AP)</em>