POLITICS
08/31/2012 03:47 pm ET

Convention(al) Wisdom 'Outliers'

Nate Cohn opines on the limits of "bouncecasting" and suggests two numbers to watch.

Jonathan Ladd asks: who's actually watching the conventions?

Simon Jackman compares Obama's vote share in 2012 and 2008.

Sean Trende explains why the economy doesn't doom Obama.

Republican pollsters downplay Romney's likability factor.

Ron Fournier explains why (and how) Romney is playing the race card.

Latino Decisions will attempt to predict Latino turnout.

Americans describe Paul Ryan in just one word, on a Pew Research survey.

Aaron Blake says the GOP is winning the battle over Paul Ryan; John Sides dissents.

John Sides examines whether Republicans have fought to a draw on Medicare.

CivicScience offers an unusually detailed profile of undecided voters.

Gary Langer takes a different tack for examining persuadable voters.

The New York Times profiles expatriate voters.

Allan & Sheri Rivlin assess prospects for a wave election.

Sam Wang predicts 10-1 odds that Obama will win re-election.

Scott Keeter explains how Pew Research chooses likely voters.

Jonathan Chait theorizes that pollsters are under-sampling minority voters; Sean Trende disagrees; Chait responds.

Ruy Teixeira reviews Sean Trende's The Lost Majority.

Karl Rove tells private briefing, Crossroads “shared polling and focus group data with ‘all the major groups that are playing’ in the election.”

Langer Research launches a MoE Machine.

Anthony Wells reviews pollster house effects in the United Kingdom.

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