US-2012 President: 47% Obama (D), 46% Romney (R) (AP-GfK 9/13-9/17)

AP-GfK
9/13/12-9/17/12; 1,512 adults, 3.2% margin of error
807 likely voters, 4.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
AP-GfK release

National

2012 President
47% Obama (D), 46% Romney (R) (chart)

State of the Country
42% Right Direction, 48% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 49/48 (chart)

Positive / Negative
Barack Obama: 58 / 39 (chart)
Mitt Romney: 40 / 49 (chart)

Comments

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

09:29 AM on 09/19/2012

My goal is to prove the pollsters wrong that likely voters tend to be white, center-right folks who are more likely to vote for Romney. I think after this whole leak with Romney's video he's a wounded candidate. No wonder GOP governors feel like they have to purge voters in order for Romney to win,

[Bukama]

11:36 AM on 09/19/2012

As I said on another thread, Romney's base likes what is in the video. We do believe that the country is doomed if more than 50% become net receivers from government. Even if we receive benefits, we wish we didn't have to, and blame this administration for the poor economy that puts us in this position.

[qwert1234]

11:41 AM on 09/19/2012

"Romney's base likes what is in the video"

and i'll bet that includes those that are in the 47% and don't even know it

and is it true that republicans are the ones who passed the series of tax cuts that allows the 47% to not pay fed income tax?

[Rightbrainedleftwinged]

03:17 PM on 09/19/2012

But, why is it that the reddest states get the most subsidies from the federal government? Google it. Also google the poorest counties in the US. Most of them are not in places like LA or Detroit, or other inner city counties; they are overwhelmingly rural, and the way I see it, is that a lot of rural white voters, bite the hand that feeds them, by not trusting people like Obama, and vote for someone like Rand Paul in the instance of KY. He wants to get rid of the ctr of disease control, and he's in one of the biggest mining states where breathing health problems are so common. That is the problem I have. If wealthy suburbanites voted Republican, and poor rural folks voted Democratic, Romney's theory, might add up, but that is not the case.

[gbshabo]

07:33 AM on 09/19/2012

There s not a descrepency between registered voters and likely voters of 9 points. I'm not claiming I know which model is off, but only the certainty that one of them is. No other polling firm is showing this great of a discrepency and one has actually have shown Obama increasing his lead when switching to the likely model. One thing is certain, there is a great deal of flunctuation in how different pollsters are determining what a likely voter is or statistically, such varience would be abnormal to say the least.

[ashenthorn]

09:10 AM on 09/19/2012

Their previous poll was Obama +1 with RV's. This one is Obama +10 with RV's

[StatsNo1fan]

11:21 AM on 09/19/2012

The reason for this poll's wider discrepancy between RV and LV is because this is the first poll of the cycle that actually used a reasonable screen. They asked a few more questions and screened out 37% of RV's, which brought them to a reasonable looking 63% turnout.

Most polls we've seen so far, screened out under 20%. The NBC/WSJ poll screened out 18%. The only poll that I saw screening out over 20% this cycle was CNN at 22%, and their discrepancy between RV and LV was 7%.