Huffpost Politics
Mark Blumenthal Headshot

Latest 2012 Polls Show Biggest Barack Obama Lead Yet

Posted: Updated:
U.S. President Barack Obama greets supporters during a campaign rally on September 22, 2012 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
U.S. President Barack Obama greets supporters during a campaign rally on September 22, 2012 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON -- Monday's new polls produced no signs that President Barack Obama's recent polling "bounce" is fading. If anything, the latest surveys indicate that his lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney may be expanding.

A sign of the depth of Obama's current advantage comes from the fact that he led at least nominally on 19 of 20 new polls HuffPost Pollster logged into its database on Monday, including six national releases and a dozen new statewide polls. The exception was a new poll in Montana, a state not carried by the Democrats since 1992.

The HuffPost Pollster tracking model combines national and state-level polling to produce estimates of the current polling snapshot nationally and in the battleground states. The new polls nudged Obama's estimated current lead in the national popular vote to exactly four percentage points (48.6 to 44.6 as of this writing; the model's estimates update several times each day as new polls are published).

At the state level, one of the most striking results came from North Carolina, where a new survey by the Civitas Institute gives Obama a four percentage-point advantage (49 to 45 percent). Civitas is a conservative think tank, and its previous surveys in the state had all shown Romney in the lead.

North Carolina remains the closest state in the current polling snapshot. The new Civitas poll helped nudge Obama to a nearly 2-point lead on the poll tracking model's estimate (47.7 to 46.0 percent), just within the range classified as a "tossup."

Recent surveys indicate that Obama has larger leads in all of the other battleground states. In Florida, two new polls conducted over the week showed Obama leading by nearly identical margins. A automated survey by the Democratic Party-affiliated firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) and a live interviewer survey by the American Research Group (ARG), show Obama leading Romney by four- and five-point margins respectively. The new polls help boost Obama's Florida advantage to nearly four points (48.9 to 45.1 percent) on the tracking model estimate.

In Iowa, another crucial battleground state, a second ARG poll shows Obama leading by seven percentage points (51 to 44 percent), a bigger margin than estimated by the poll tracking model, which shows Obama with a lead in the state of just over four points (48.2 to 43.9 percent).

Meanwhile, two new automated polls by firms with results that typically tilt in the Republican direction gave Obama double-digit leads in Midwestern states. Rasmussen Reports gave Obama a 12-point lead in Michigan and We Ask America showed Obama ahead by the same margin in Wisconsin.

The current polling snapshot brings Obama's estimated lead in the Electoral College to 332 to 191, with only North Carolina's 15 electoral votes in the "tossup" category. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Statistical noise is inherent in all polling, and Monday's upturn for Obama may turn out to be a random occurrence. But if Republicans were looking for good news from Monday's polls, they got none.

Also on HuffPost:

2012 Swing State Polls
of
Share
Tweet
Advertisement
Share this
close
Current Slide

Suggest a correction

Around the Web

US Elections 2012 - Polls: Obama Leads Romney Among Swing-State Voters on ...

Presidential Polls 2012 Romney is in Dire Straits But Here Are 6 Things He Can ...

Poll: Outside the South, Obama's Doing Well With the "White Working Class"

Gallup Poll Revealing Distrust of Government Activism Could Help Romney

 
  Obama Romney
Obama Romney
332 206
Obama leading
Obama won
Romney leading
Romney won
Popular Vote
33 out of 100 seats are up for election. 51 are needed for a majority.
Democrat leading
Democrat won
Holdover
Republican leading
Republican won
Democrats* Republicans
Current Senate 53 47
Seats gained or lost +2 -2
New Total 55 45
* Includes two independent senators expected to caucus with the Democrats: Angus King (Maine) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.).
All 435 seats are up for election. 218 are needed for a majority.
Democrat leading
Democrat won
Republican leading
Republican won
Democrats Republicans
Seats won 201 234
Click for Full Results
Polls and Charts
Latest Poll Updates
« 1 of 4 »