Amy Walter finds fundamentals favoring Obama.

Sean Trende sees a race between Barack Obama and gravity.

Jay Cost argues that the first debate was more a Romney win than an Obama loss.

Dan Hopkins reports on a debate test conducted by ReactLabs and a quartet of political scientists.

Jonathan Chait thinks heavy television advertising explains Obama's stronger performance in swing states; Geoff Garin agrees. Nate Silver and Nate Cohn also offer takes.

Numbers Guy Carl Bialik takes on the polling wars.

Jon Cohen offers tips on poll watching and 5 myths about political polls

Chuck Todd calls Rasmussen polls 'slop,' Rasmussen responds on Fox (via Shepard).

Hotline's "Political Insiders" call for weighting by party ID.

Nate Cohn recalls that this year's Gallup likely-registered voter gap is about the same as in 2008; Harry Enten adds more.

Steve Shepard explains how Gallup chooses likely voters.

Jay Cost condemns the timing of Gallup's methodological changes.

AP releases interactive data of exit polling demographics.

Steve Singiser questions the exit poll cutbacks.

Gary King says aggregate polls give a better picture of Election Day.

AAPOR offers a caution on "credibility intervals."

Sean Trende shares a "mindblowingly awesome" video.

TiVo finds Republicans like golf, Democrats prefer cartoons.

The Daily Show conducts a poll of polls.

CORRECTION:An earlier version of this story said Nate Cohn compared this year's Gallup poll likely voter gap to 2004. His comparison was to 2008.