POLITICS

10/26/12 Pollster Open Thread

10/26/2012 11:27 am ET | Updated Dec 26, 2012

This open thread is to discuss all of the day's polls -- what they tell us about the election, their methodological strengths and weaknesses, notable findings others have missed or whatever else you want to talk about. Each day's open thread will appear in the morning and remain open for 24 hours. We also encourage you to use the "favorite" button to identify the most interesting or insightful comments.

Thursday featured comments

"The youth vote was high in 2008 in part because a lot of them were involved in the primaries. Then their turnout had most of its surge in swing states. In the other states it was on par with 2004, but the dem margin was greater. With this cycle featuring hyper-focus on 9 states, I wouldn't be surprised if overall turnout among youth went down significantly. I think the 18-25's are less important than the 26-35's anyway - that's the anti-Bush pro-Obama generation. If you're under 22 you couldn't vote in '08. - AaronTX

"So, how does a potential "superstorm" affecting the eastern US next week impact the horse race? Does it help or hurt one candidate? At the very least, I think it's a barrier for either candidate to get their message out based on widespread news coverage of a potentially severe storm and it could look callous of either candidate to be blasting the other if people need arks to get around the eastern seaboard." - Symanski

"Different posts comment vaguely on some early turnout results...so here is the current early turnout for key states that track partisan turnout. This is only partisan turnout, we have no idea how they are actually voting.

CO - 326,000 already voted: Dem - 37%, GOP - 39%
FL - 1,052,000 already voted: Dem - 39%, GOP - 44%
IA - 400,000 already voted: Dem - 46%, GOP - 32%
NV - 265,000 already voted: Dem - 46%, GOP - 37%
NC - 992,000 already voted: Dem - 51%, GOP - 31%
VA - 248,000 already voted - Doesn't track party, but does by age: 18-25 - 21%, 60+ - 40%

Everyone can take what they want from the actual data there." - stillow1

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