POLITICS
10/31/2012 10:13 am ET Updated Dec 31, 2012

10/31/12 Pollster Open Thread

Thanks for sticking with us through storm-related technical issues. This open thread is to discuss all of the day's polls -- what they tell us about the election, their methodological strengths and weaknesses, notable findings others have missed or whatever else you want to talk about. Each day's open thread will appear in the morning and remain open for 24 hours. We also encourage you to use the "favorite" button to identify the most interesting or insightful comments.

Monday and Tuesday featured comments

"Looking at the campaign visit map tells us pretty mush what we need to know too. I'm assuming where they send the candidate matters much more than where they send the wives and VP. In order of visit frequency, last 30 days. Mitt - OH, FL, VA, CO, IA, NC, NV, WI. Barack - OH/FL, NV, VA, NH/CO, IA, WI. Given their visits, I'd wager that the campaigns consider NC, NH, IA, NC, and WI mostly over and are focusing most of their firepower on OH, VA, FL, and CO - those are the real battlegrounds. NV is a little weird - Obama spending a lot of time there, Romney and his team not so much, so I'd say lean Obama, but I'll leave it tossup. That layout puts Obama at 257, Romney 206; Obama has a 92% chance of reaching 270 in that scenario with a 2:1 probability; Romney 8%. 94% if you give him NV." - AaronTX

"Actually, if you take the Rasmussen house effect into consideration (subtract one from Romney and add one to Obama), its Ohio poll is consistent with the Ohio newspaper poll one: a tie. If this is close to an accurate reflection of the electorate (and I don't know whether it is or not), then the race in Ohio may not be decided for weeks. Not only is there the issue of the disparity between ballots requested vs. those sent in so far (currently still in the hundreds of thousands) that has been mentioned here elsewhere, there is another relatively overlooked fact. The number of precincts in some major counties--including Hamilton (Cincy) and Summit (Akron)--have been dramatically reduced in the name of budgetary reasons. In Summit, the number has been cut nearly in half. Whereas early voting will mitigate the impact of this, there are going to be many people trying to go to the polls on election day only to find that their precinct has been merged with another one, and they won't be voting in the same place they have been voting in for years. Some may be discouraged and go home, others will file provisional ballots. But those provisional ballots by rule cannot be counted until well after the election. If no one wins a clear majority in the EC without OH, locust-like swarms of lawyers from both sides will descend upon the state for weeks. We could have another FL 2000." - Lurker1803

"How can you people talk polls now that Star Wars episode VII has been announced?" - stillow1

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