SMALL BUSINESS
11/20/2012 10:36 am ET | Updated Jan 20, 2013

Randomness, Probability And Uncertainty: How Surprises Make You Stronger

What is the opposite of fragility? Though not quite right, "resilience" and "robustness" are two words that come to mind. If fragility means something that breaks under stress, its exact opposite should mean something that grows stronger under pressure. There is no word that quite captures this, says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an American essayist and scholar, so he has invented one: "antifragile".

The neologism is necessary because antifragility, he argues, is the secret to success in a world full of uncertainty. Mr Taleb's earlier books were devoted to showing that no one can measure the likelihood of rare events--or "black swans", in his now famous phrase. From the financial crisis to the tsunami that struck the Fukushima nuclear reactor in 2011, the worst-case scenario will never be quite bad enough. So instead of trying to predict the future and failing, the best thing to do is try to benefit from shocks when they occur.

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